by easytiger Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:35 pm
My final ranking ended up at 1525 - pretty disappointed ultimately, but made enough good calls to create opportunities to do better, and enough bad calls to not actually do better.
A few of my takeaways;
- Not starting with Haas was a reasonable gamble. Ultimately it didn't pay off (no reduced minutes games, and plenty of 80 minute games ensured starting with him was the right call).
However, the 4 Captains I used for the 12 rounds that I didn't own Haas, collectively averaging 71.1 (including the one-off 50pts for Tedesco v Titans on a dry track). Haas over that time averaged 70.8, so no major damage done. There is still the problem of timing the extra trade down the line to bring him in, that Haas starters wouldn't have had (plus he ended up missing 3 of those final 8 games that I owned him). Potentially the right idea, but the wrong timing.
- I typically go with my own instinct/research over other opinions. This year I went more with popular opinion and ended with a much worse rank than the previous few years. The thought process wasn't wrong, I genuinely think the best result is a nice balance inbetween - that comes from understanding where you're assessments are strong (trust your gut) and where you are historically more inclined to make a bad call (trust a crowd/other opinions over your gut).
- I also looked to be a bit more patient with midseason cash cows (waiting a week or two to decide).
It's a nice concept, but potentially flawed. As a tactic across the season, you may have 10 midseason cow(ish) selections that you wait a week or so for (not including those you may let pass), if you miss on average $30-$50K waiting to bring them in (while they are still at a good under-$300K price) that opportunity value adds up.
e.g. I didn't trust Niu's job security for example, and finally bit the bullet following his breakout 52 point game at Fullback. The following week he scored 11 and was out for the remainder. Sure that affected all owners, but most of them atleast took the extra $50K profit and points. I did a similar thing with Paix and others.
Again, I think it's a balance of Job Security + likelihood of role success => jump on early vs strong-questions over role/JS => wait-and-see approach and look for fundamental changes in that assessment.
It's been an entertaining year, and I think the NRL has done incredible to get through 20 rounds in the way they have. I'm already feeling pretty excited about 2021, so plan to work through some strategies and process guidelines over the next few days to improve my decision-making come next year (while it's still fresh). Well done to everyone who ranked high or set a new PB, and to everyone who contributed here.