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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:55 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    Fuck me dead. 66 point ceiling average, each to their own mate.

    Flanno was also kicking goals. +8 points. For top 2 side in comp. Can't cherry pick

    Good point, Fogarty was also kicking goals in that period, an average of 2 points per game that Brown doesn't do. Makes his ceiling even higher at around 68 using your km and goal kicks methodology.


    Last edited by mattnz on Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:56 pm

    Fogartys ceiling is 68 because of Dylan Brown? Might be time for bed lol, that justification is cooked


    Last edited by my tv broke on Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:57 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Pretty much this. The top tier halves kick the shit out of the ball every week and usually kick goals too.

    Fogs biggest fan here but he will be hard pressed to elevate to elite level half. 55avg is probably his ceiling imo (forum bet anyone?)

    Everyone expects titans to do well but that still remains to be seen. They arent the storm or the roosters, it wont surprise me if they take a month or two to get going, they arent just gonna turn up and blow teams off the park from round 1

    It's what keeps them at the top mate, looking at + 6-8 points for goals and +10-20 points extra for KM over the next tier.

    I think he will go well to go well over a 50 average which is already good.
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:57 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Good point, Fogarty was also kicking goals in that period, an average of 2 points per game that Brown doesn't do. Makes his ceiling even higher at around 68.

    Okay. You win.

    I cede
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:58 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Fogartys ceiling is 68 because of Dylan Brown? Might be time for bed lol, that justification is cooked
    Its welshy's methodology, I am just applying it.

    In all seriousness though, I do think 57 is a realistic target average for Fogarty this season. How many rookies don't improve in their 2nd season?


    Last edited by mattnz on Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:03 pm

    mattnz wrote:
    Its welshy's methodology, I am just applying it.

    In all seriousness though, I do think 57 is a realistic target average for Fogarty this season.

    I cant argue with picking Fog hoping for a 57. Personally I think thats very much top end for him but im probably wrong, i see him in the low 50s all going well
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:07 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Fogartys ceiling is 68 because of Dylan Brown? Might be time for bed lol, that justification is cooked

    Same as expecting player A to match player B fantasy scoring when stepping into their role

    I.e Young matching Bateman
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    Post by Mearcats Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:09 pm

    mattnz wrote:Likely starting and bench mids minutes for sharks last season:
    Tolman 60
    Woods 52
    McInnes 79
    Fifita 33 (down from 51+ every other year)
    Hamlin Uele 43
    Rudolf 46

    Total minutes last season - 313
    Minutes available - 240
    Significantly over-subscribed

    My expected minutes would have to be something like:
    Tolman 50
    Woods 45
    McInnes 60
    Fifita 30
    Hamlin Uele 30
    Rudolf 25

    Wouldn't surprise to see a rotation policy through the season either, giving guys like Williams, Talakai and Hunt game time as well, a bit like the Raiders do. Pele was also being heavily talked up by Morris in pre-season.


    Would you honestly give two old guys more minutes than Rudolf and Hamlin Uele who were far more effective than them last year? I just can't see it. Actually, if you completely reversed those names on that list and left the numbers as they are that'd make a lot more sense. I also don't think you chase McInnes to play him for 60mins though am happy to say they may do just that.
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:12 pm

    That Lolo news is interesting and probably rules him out of contention for me, although id still bet he plays closer to 60 mins than 50 mins on avg.

    I had actually wondered whether they would use him at 2nd row ala harris to ease his load a bit but i guess not.

    It does leave me interested in the hooker, assuming it is Robson. Youve got 6 interchanges on the three starting middles, and im not sure both edges are going to play 80??
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:18 pm

    Mearcats wrote:

    Would you honestly give two old guys more minutes than Rudolf and Hamlin Uele who were far more effective than them last year? I just can't see it. Actually, if you completely reversed those names on that list and left the numbers as they are that'd make a lot more sense. I also don't think you chase McInnes to play him for 60mins though am happy to say they may do just that.
    Dragons needed him to play 80, even when they had Hunt at hooker. Mary was saying that he wanted guys like Kerr playing for high impact minutes, not long minutes.
    Its a really different situation at the Sharks, they don't need McInnes playing huge minutes at all. In fact I would say they are better served getting their big forwards on longer instead for impact. 60 minutes makes far more sense than 80 in that team.
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    Post by Chucky Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:18 pm

    mattnz wrote:
    Its welshy's methodology, I am just applying it.

    In all seriousness though, I do think 57 is a realistic target average for Fogarty this season. How many rookies don't improve in their 2nd season?
    Ever heard of the second year syndrome?
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:24 pm

    Wow that took off quickly the last 90mins or so. I’ve just caught up on the 3-4 pages.

    Is anyone thinking of starting without McInnes or Cleary? Would be a brave move....... Actually just remembered I think MS was considering it..... you’d be starting without them if you think they’re gonna drop cash and lose 80-100k....

    Just thinking of a Moses and Munster halves combo that’d be pretty strong actually. I may just need to make a draft up like this and see how it looks....

    I’m assuming those that don’t start with McInnes or Cleary will captain Cook.
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:25 pm

    my tv broke wrote:That Lolo news is interesting and probably rules him out of contention for me, although id still bet he plays closer to 60 mins than 50 mins on avg.

    I had actually wondered whether they would use him at 2nd row ala harris to ease his load a bit but i guess not.

    It does leave me interested in the hooker, assuming it is Robson. Youve got 6 interchanges on the three starting middles, and im not sure both edges are going to play 80??

    Great point, yeah if Hess doesn't start, he is coming off the bench. only leaves 1 interchange for injury.

    I had Robson last season and was really pissed off when he stopped playing 80 each week (including a 26 minutes single stint after starting the game).

    Priced at 49, with a 67 average playing 80 minutes!
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:27 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Wow that took off quickly the last 90mins or so. I’ve just caught up on the 3-4 pages.

    Is anyone thinking of starting without McInnes or Cleary? Would be a brave move....... Actually just remembered I think MS was considering it..... you’d be starting without them if you think they’re gonna drop cash and lose 80-100k....

    Just thinking of a Moses and Munster halves combo that’d be pretty strong actually. I may just need to make a draft up like this and see how it looks....

    I’m assuming those that don’t start with McInnes or Cleary will captain Cook.

    Currently no Cleary or McInnes for me but that was before TLolo news and I had $400k in bank for closer to season moves

    Even with Guns to start season I like some value or at least some that can match the top guys on an early season purple patch

    I really like Munster at current price vs potential for my gun half, and got LAM locked in
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:29 pm

    my tv broke wrote:That Lolo news is interesting and probably rules him out of contention for me, although id still bet he plays closer to 60 mins than 50 mins on avg.

    I had actually wondered whether they would use him at 2nd row ala harris to ease his load a bit but i guess not.

    It does leave me interested in the hooker, assuming it is Robson. Youve got 6 interchanges on the three starting middles, and im not sure both edges are going to play 80??

    Mentioned Robson and had in side weeks ago but only based on his 80 minute games where his average skyrockets

    but in real life he was poor playing the huge minutes and better suited to a fully sparked 60/65
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:31 pm

    Welshy wrote:

    Mentioned Robson and had in side weeks ago but only based on his 80 minute games where his average skyrockets

    but in real life he was poor playing the huge minutes and better suited to a fully sparked 60/65

    Cotter was really good at the end of season too. Id be surprised if they plan for Robson to play 80 but if that is going to be the case, well hard to ignore
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:33 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Cotter was really good at the end of season too. Id be surprised if they plan for Robson to play 80 but if that is going to be the case, well hard to ignore

    I'd probably start with him over Cook and upgrade to Teddy at the back in that scenario mate.

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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:34 pm

    Draft 9 with Moses and Munster. I don’t mind it.

    51k spare and this:

    Cook (C)
    A. Crichton Lodge Koloa
    Matterson Davey
    Moses Munster
    Roberts Averillo
    Tommy T Pap Simonsson/Laurie

    J. Brailey Lam Watson Riki
    Liddle Hetherington Blore Niu


    Cook, Angus, Matto, Moses, Munster, Tommy T and Pap all guns!
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    Post by Welshy Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:35 pm

    I'm still holding hope Hunt goes to hooker and I'll be all over that
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:37 pm

    Bit of digging around Cowboys. Payten stated in another interview that Clifford has been leading the team around. Another post on forum says Drinkwater played fb in an opposed session with blackhawks, holmes wing. Starting to think it will be clifford morgan halves and drinkwater fb

    I wasnt picking any of those guys anyway but if holmes isnt FB it will cause a lot of re shuffling (or people just grabbing isaako)

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