NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Honey Badger wrote:IF Taylan May gets a wing spot over Staines I'll pick him over all the others

filthridden wrote:People need to pump the breaks on Rocco Berry and realise that even though he's going to be a great player, that great player is being the next Dean Whare.
Great defensively, not particularly exciting on attack, unlikely to score well in fantasy.

He'll likely be the one pushed to the wing if a winger goes down mid-game so that doesn't help either.

Milchcow wrote:Panthers have lost basically everyone that played centre for them last year except for Steohen Crichton (importantly 2 of the players that have left are the 2 people that played centre the last time Crichton was forced to the wing)

Why would they move their last centre out of position to accommodate a 1 game rookie

I mean, if it happens it happens, but it seems quite low on the probability scale.

Milchcow wrote:
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is

mrbrownstone wrote:Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:

1. Walsh
2. DWZ
3. Arthars
4. Pompey
5. Montoya

Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.

Milchcow wrote:
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is

Milchcow wrote:
Last year Jesse Ramien averaged 52 in games without Shaun Johnson

When Johnson and Ramien both played that rose to 47

Giving Ramien a Johnson bonus of -5 points a game

I don't think Shaun Johnson is the attacking stats bonanza you think he is

mattnz wrote:

Arthars was an extra that couldn't crack the Broncos top 30 this season.

wolfking wrote:Wait.....did Rabbit just call all of us kents?  That feels weird.

sajjos wrote:Have we talked about Stimson yet?

mattnz wrote:

Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
1. Playing right center outside SJ - I'm assuming you're saying this because you think it means he'll score a bunch of tries? He'll score tries, don't get me wrong but he's a hole runner, he's not going to be busting tackles and stepping like crazy. I refer to my point about him being similar to Dean Whare who also scored a bunch of tries in his heyday but you still wouldn't pick him for your fantasy team. I'd be more worried about him defending next to SJ. Potential for his missed tackles to creep up.
2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp - the easiest draw in the comp in the first five rounds are whoever the first five team to play the warriors are. No but seriously, we know not to read into the draw too much.
3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack. - This is just silly. 1) You shouldn't be looking at QLD cup stats when the guy has played twice as many games in the NRL already. QLD cup stats are irrelevant at this point. 2) Three games is too small a sample size 3) As I stated earlier, he will score tries but that doesn't necessarily equate to a decent amount of points in fantasy. He's so far scored a try every second game in the NRL which is a fantastic strike rate (some might say unsustainable, especially as a Warriors players) and still only averages around 30.

The Bludger#2 wrote:On a different note - Middle forwards??
Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.

The Bludger#2 wrote:On a different note - Middle forwards??
Everyone's pumping TPJ to have a breakout year (cue: not getting suspended for "accidental" crusher tackles) - I've currently got him as my premium middle.
But, looking at other options, what are people's thoughts (or better yet a Milchcow stats dive) on James, J. Safiti, Stefano, Paulo (although he's pricey and a direct TPJ swap), Gilbert etc.

sajjos wrote:If when Warriors dont win the first 5 games  I know who to blame.