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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 45 - Woohoo. An unmoderated forum - Run Riot

    Shady2K
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    Post by Shady2K Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am

    wolfking wrote:

    Thanks mate.  Have really given Cotter much thought.  Pretty sure he gets picked for Origin though.  Guess I'm sucked in by McInnes' pedigree.

    If for some reason Crossland drops off the bench, realised I can keep Randall and do Pap and Leo to Robson and Butcher.  Jeez....that's tempting and gives Randall one more final go.

    Cotter should really be one of the first names on Slater's team sheet. Slater came out a while ago and saying that team selection is starting from scratch and Cotter is performing well above all other QLD forwards right now

    Would be very surprised if he is not in the team
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Thu May 19, 2022 11:02 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:Reckon I rate this weeks trade ins in the following order:

    Guns and Mid Tiers:
    Robson - Plays RD13 and who's doing all the right things. He's scoring very well and if he can snag a try will go huge. Has the Granville bench risk, but all trades have their risks and as he's currently not there, Robson seems a great trade in
    McInnes - Gun with pedigree who's now starting, risks is he's in a better team now with more help around the park, but looks a handy 50-60 point player at the moment and an upgrade on our mid 30s to mid 40s players
    Butcher - Comes at a tasty price and is finally has a chance to start for good mins, but has risks that as Roosters he still get's benched for a good spell
    Walsh - Round 13, covers the pesky WFB position that many don't have cover for so could be a good in, plus has history of scoring well in said tricky position. Has it's risk but could be a great play
    IPap - Comes in at a hefty price already and still unclear if he can sustain this price. Could pay to wait till after RD 13 now and see if that price comes down before now. Not a bad trade as always good to get guns, but money may be better spent elsewhere with RD13 on the horizon
    Matto - Has pedigree also, but probably a tier down and doesnt play round 13. Good player who generally wont let you down unless he sees a big minute change
    Barnett - Position looks to be a major factor for this one. Great price and if he can keep an Edge spot but looks to drop down a lot at lock. He's also a massive suspension risk as he doesnt have much impulse control. Big risk but like Walsh could be a great play if it pays off
    Tohu - Uber gun before but coming back from a serious injury in limited mins. Could be a key buy, but possibly next week or week after due to those mins and price drops

    Cash Cows:
    Peoples - Looks to have at least 2 or 3 good scores in him coming up due to injury, so risk he doesn't get enough of a chance, but this could be a great chance to cash out some deadweight in your team as well as use that cash for an upgrade. If he jags some good scores in his chances and further injury strikes the Rabbits it might prolong his stay of relevance. Risky but looks enticing
    Wishart - Not sure I see the appeal here at all after last round. Yes cheap, but his position is certainly not guaranteed and neither are scores from him. Had a pretty poor game last week and if again could see him replaced and your stuck with yet another dud
    Miller - Kennedy is due back next round from suspension - Don't do it

    I think Matto is better than you give him credit for, there is value in buying keepers now even if they don't play 13. He's shown that he only needs 55 minutes to score keeper-level in the middle, and Parra forwards offload a lot too. He's also a huge POD and I doubt many can get him this week because a lot are too busy getting Robson, McInnes and Ipap instead
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu May 19, 2022 11:08 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    I think Matto is better than you give him credit for, there is value in buying keepers now even if they don't play 13. He's shown that he only needs 55 minutes to score keeper-level in the middle, and Parra forwards offload a lot too. He's also a huge POD and I doubt many can get him this week because a lot are too busy getting Robson, McInnes and Ipap instead

    Sounds wise. If in doubt. Get a gun. Maybe I'll do Talakai to him
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Thu May 19, 2022 11:11 am

    Loomer wrote:

    Sounds wise. If in doubt. Get a gun. Maybe I'll do Talakai to him

    That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Talakai to Matto, funded by Tass to Peoples (I don't quite have enough to trade Billy to him), and then the plan is to try to get Burton or Aitken next week from trading Randall and Tuilagi.

    I'm going all in on my POD Squad, doing what I did in 2019. Back then it was Wighton and Josh Papalii who were my main pillars, this year it'll be Cook, Munster, Matto and Ponga (Cotter too but he won't be a POD for much longer)
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu May 19, 2022 11:15 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Talakai to Matto, funded by Tass to Peoples (I don't quite have enough to trade Billy to him), and then the plan is to try to get Burton or Aitken next week from trading Randall and Tuilagi.

    I'm going all in on my POD Squad, doing what I did in 2019. Back then it was Wighton and Josh Papalii who were my main pillars, this year it'll be Cook, Munster, Matto and Ponga (Cotter too but he won't be a POD for much longer)

    Because of order of playing I've done Tuilagi>Matto with $342 itb. If Butcher starts may do Talakai>Butcher
    Mr Snrub
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    Post by Mr Snrub Thu May 19, 2022 11:15 am

    Holzman wrote:



    Coates to Peoples
    Randall to McInnes

    and bank the cash?

    unless that leaves you rolling with no cover

    Walsh improves my WFB depth because otherwise I have to run Koula there and my only WFB backup would be Edrick Lee.

    Selling Randall to McInnes means I have no HOK cover though but I think the risk might be worth it compared to the risk of trading in another potential dud of a cash cow. Might just have to go without HOK cover for 11 and 12 then target Mahoney for R17.
    Fortitude
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    Post by Fortitude Thu May 19, 2022 11:21 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:

    Ah yep Woolfod a good pick up there, overlooked him.
    Probably place him between Peoples and Wishart. Looks a good talent, but with Elliot hanging around he seems a mighty risk that he doesnt just drop out again and like Wishart you're stuck with a dud not making cash

    I’d like to think raiders use a more conventional bench going forward.

    Fuck savage off back to reserve grade here he belongs, alongside guelr.

    Bench could be

    Starling
    Sutton
    Elliot
    Hors

    Whitehead or young can run in ctrs if we lose an outside back, they can’t be any more in effective in attack then the ones we have, and for the most part can tackle well on the edges.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu May 19, 2022 11:23 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    What we call the "magic number" is just total cost of all players playing in a round ($132,341,000 in R10) divided by total points scored (9735 in R10)
    It doesn't care at all about the breakdown of how those points/dollars are achieved.

    I'm not sure exactly what change you are proposing. But weighting players scores based on ownership so highly owned players get bigger weighting would be a terrible option. A change like that would kill any desire for a POD if they had to score more points than the good players in order to make the same cash.

    No I am not saying it should be applied differently to players based on ownership, but should be calculated based on weighting of ownership.

    The objective of how NRL Fantasy uses their own derivation of magic number is to avoid massive price escalation. I would be very surprised if their own calculation didn't include player ownership weighting.
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu May 19, 2022 11:38 am

    Still not sure whether to zig or zag this week with so many options.

    I need an EDG for sure with Tuilagi and Elliott out. Think I've narrowed it down to about 3 options (down from about 10 yesterday, so making some progress).

    a) Coates + Thompson to Peoples + Butcher & 230k. Ideally, that cash goes towards upgrading Tuilagi/Schneider to Tohu next week.

    b) Coates + Thompson to Peoples + Cotter/Robson/Aitken (best option 724k or under). When in doubt, gun + cow.

    c) Coates + Tuilagi to To'o/Walsh + Butcher. Couple of filthy middies, but both with upside and avoid a possible Peoples predicament.

    I think of my possible trade outs (Coates, Thompson, Tuilagi, Schneider) I'd rather get rid of Coates and Thompson first as the other two still have more of a chance of being useful, so tossing up between A and B. Save the cash, or get the gun in when I can?

    Any thoughts please?
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu May 19, 2022 11:42 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:Still not sure whether to zig or zag this week with so many options.

    I need an EDG for sure with Tuilagi and Elliott out. Think I've narrowed it down to about 3 options (down from about 10 yesterday, so making some progress).

    a) Coates + Thompson to Peoples + Butcher & 230k. Ideally, that cash goes towards upgrading Tuilagi/Schneider to Tohu next week.

    b) Coates + Thompson to Peoples + Cotter/Robson/Aitken (best option 724k or under). When in doubt, gun + cow.

    c) Coates + Tuilagi to To'o/Walsh + Butcher. Couple of filthy middies, but both with upside and avoid a possible Peoples predicament.

    I think of my possible trade outs (Coates, Thompson, Tuilagi, Schneider) I'd rather get rid of Coates and Thompson first as the other two still have more of a chance of being useful, so tossing up between A and B. Save the cash, or get the gun in when I can?

    Any thoughts please?

    B, but C is solid too for depth.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu May 19, 2022 11:42 am

    Community teanm going for Robson and Peoples this week

    Pick captaincy and bench
    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1982-r11-lineup
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu May 19, 2022 11:44 am

    wolfking wrote:

    B, but C is solid too for depth.

    Thanks mate. Who would you take out of Cotter/Robson/Aitken if I go B, think I'm leaning Cotter? Or anyone else under 724k (already have McInness and Angus).
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu May 19, 2022 11:49 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:

    Thanks mate. Who would you take out of Cotter/Robson/Aitken if I go B, think I'm leaning Cotter? Or anyone else under 724k (already have McInness and Angus).

    If you're gunning for 13, it's hard to split Robson and Aitken, if not, Cotter probably has a slight edge.
    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Thu May 19, 2022 11:49 am

    Gut says Cotter and avoid Robson. Head says Robson.
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu May 19, 2022 11:53 am

    Lemmy KGB wrote:Gut says Cotter and avoid Robson. Head says Robson.

    Thinking the same. Just know the minute I buy Robson Granville worms his way back onto the bench.
    Shady2K
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    Post by Shady2K Thu May 19, 2022 11:59 am

    Hope Payten realises carrying a 33 year old Granville on the bench is useless and Robson is their best choice as 80 minutes...

    Anyway, with Cotter v Robson. Assuming Cotter plays Origin and Robson maintains 80 minutes for the year, then Robson is the better option for overall points

    From this weekend, there are 15 rounds to be played. Cotter will miss 2 as he will play Origin and also the question of does he back up. Robson will miss 1 for the Cowboys' bye in Round 17

    Cotter currently averages 54.6 for the year. Assuming he plays 13 more rounds, he will score you 709.8 total points

    Robson currently averages 58.4 for the year (for games over 70 minutes). Assuming he plays 14 more rounds, he will score you 817.6 total points

    Just food for thought
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu May 19, 2022 12:08 pm

    Is Cotter a lock for Origin?

    I know on form he should be, not questioning that, but will he actually be picked?

    I'd have thought on form/reputation/past selections it's something like:

    8. Papa
    9. Grant
    10. Tino
    11. Kaufusi
    12. DiFi
    13. Arrow

    14. Hunt
    15. Collins
    16. Mofo
    17. Carrigan/Capwell/Cotter

    Again, I think Cotter deserves a spot in there, I'd pick him, but I wouldn't be wholly surprised if they go Carrigan or someone instead.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu May 19, 2022 12:09 pm

    I don’t really buy the argument about Granville coming back

    If there’s an outside back injury, Hammer starts - yes
    This means Granville is on the bench again cutting into Robsons min - err why? Wouldn’t they just get another back on there - Hampton, Elliot, etc?
    hymenbustas
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    Post by hymenbustas Thu May 19, 2022 12:12 pm

    JAC confirmed out, Burton trained today
    ShadowSabre
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    Post by ShadowSabre Thu May 19, 2022 12:15 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:Is Cotter a lock for Origin?

    I know on form he should be, not questioning that, but will he actually be picked?

    I'd have thought on form/reputation/past selections it's something like:

    8. Papa
    9. Grant
    10. Tino
    11. Kaufusi
    12. DiFi
    13. Arrow

    14. Hunt
    15. Collins
    16. Mofo
    17. Carrigan/Capwell/Cotter

    Again, I think Cotter deserves a spot in there, I'd pick him, but I wouldn't be wholly surprised if they go Carrigan or someone instead.

    Slater is saying all the right things about him getting picked in the media and I'd say he's exactly what Maroon's fans want to see from one of their guys, all heart.

    I'd say he's near enough a lock and one of the underperforming guys above makes way - Collins or Mofo my guess. Is DiFi supposed to be back by then?

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