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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 25 - Take it to the betting thread you degenerates

    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:22 pm

    robelgordo wrote:


    The obvious thing is last in, first out and a similar role he's had for 2.5 seasons.

    Instead you've gone with an elaborate narrative where he suddenly is ahead of a bunch of players he hasn't been ahead of, playing a role he last had briefly in 2020, at a fantasy scoring average he last hit in 2018.

    Time will tell I suppose.

    He has been injured up until ROUND 5 and unavailable for selection. He was playing under the titans under a very different coaching structure to Bennett for the past few years and was hooked one game and never really got given a proper go after that. He was personally targeted by Bennett to join the DOLPHINS. He was always ahead of the others (just injured)
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:23 pm

    HumanForumMember wrote:G'day fellas,

    I don't know about youse lot, but I reckon the mods on this NRL forum are as useless as tits on a bull! They don't seem to have a clue what's going on half the time. Thinking it's 2022 and not 2023? I'm pretty sure some of them still think it's 1999!

    So, I'm puttin' me hand up to become a mod meself. I reckon I could do a fair dinkum job of keepin' this forum runnin' smooth as silk. Plus, I promise not to be a drongo like the current mods.

    Anyway, let me know what ya reckon. If you think I'm the right bloke for the job, give us a holler and I'll make sure this forum is ridgy-didge once and for all!

    Must be an Alt.
    Laugh
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:26 pm

    Just thinking ahead, Latrell, Loiero and Carty will probably be my ticket to Hynes come rd7
    I may need to downgrade Latrell earlier rather than later with his score of 25 last round
    Lemmy KGB
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    Post by Lemmy KGB Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:31 pm

    I think everyone agrees Hynes plays origin? I think that makes him a bit of a dud missing 5 games in next 13.


    Last edited by Lemmy KGB on Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:31 pm

    I've started doing a weekly nrlf/sc podcast for my company Wicky. YT link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbqhoqxexbQ

    I've been on here for over 10 years but never had a top 1% finish (from memory) but am coming 77th this season! I cover nrl fantasy + sc trading options, team news + my nrlf and sc team in the podcast. There's also the audio version, nrl betting content + link to our discord if you're keen on here - https://linktr.ee/wickyai

    And just repeating everything on our site is free Smile
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:31 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Do you want to be trading Teddy in at round 7, with him not playing Origin byes from round 13?

    You should be more worried about fielding 17 in the post Origin rounds with 3 teams on byes than fielding 13 in Origin rounds

    Teddy is 100% in for me if Carty loses spot next week
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:32 pm

    Difita + Doorey to Hoskings + Frizell.

    Week 6 - Trindall out for a cashie (maybe AKP). Bank the other trade.
    Week 7 - Carty + Carrigan to Hynes + sub $450k player

    Could also downgrade Grant to a cheaper HOK during this period if I find I really need cash

    N.B. Working on writing up a Team Tracker for those who might be interested in following along for the ride
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:34 pm

    Lemmy KGB wrote:I think everyone agrees Hynes plays origin? I think that makes him a bit of a dud missing 5 games in next 13.

    No one knows and not everyone agrees
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:35 pm

    Pookus McFly wrote:

    I started 2020 with Easy E when he was named starting lock at the Knights. He scored a 15 and a 25, so I sold him and he averaged 50 for three games- the absolute bastard. He really needs a full 50 minutes to make his 40 fantasy points, but they seemed happy to play him as a 35 minute starting lock.  What I do like about Ese is that he is still only 28, I thought he must have been in his 30s by now. But when everything depends on his minutes, hes not going to get away from you in price- even if he brains it with a 50 he will still be under $400k. But if he doesn’t get the minutes or he loses his spot then you waste a trade. Easy wait and see for me, but I am all for you getting on early for a crowing party when Easy scores a meatie  cheer

    Null Null job security definitely a risk. If he was simply an edge then few would likely take the plunge, but forward scores in the centre position are something worth gambling on. I can see a world where Lemmy cements that role for himself over the next couple of weeks.

    I am not sure that is entirely accurate

    Career average minutes over 30 = 39.9
    Career average minutes over 40 = 45.4
    Career average minutes over 50 = 51.9
    Career average minutes over 60 = 61.3

    He is priced at 29 - I guess it all depends on how many minutes you think he will get. I get the sense that he is due for at least 40 in two stints

    Worse case scenario - At the Knights in 2020 he averaged 38 points at an average of 40 minutes best case is much much better
    GarethEllisismyDad
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    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:52 pm

    GreenSchist wrote:Difita + Doorey to Hoskings + Frizell.

    Week 6 - Trindall out for a cashie (maybe AKP). Bank the other trade.
    Week 7 - Carty + Carrigan to Hynes + sub $450k player

    Could also downgrade Grant to a cheaper HOK during this period if I find I really need cash

    N.B. Working on writing up a Team Tracker for those who might be interested in following along for the ride

    If I had fifita I’d want to keep him, scoring nicely and looking like he has workrate, bit of luck he could have monstered a score

    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:09 pm

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

    If I had fifita I’d want to keep him, scoring nicely and looking like he has workrate, bit of luck he could have monstered a score


    I don’t disagree. He’s playing great but unfortunately not making money.
    Cash gen is gonna be the key to my success this year and Fifita is my only pathway to Hoskings.

    Time will tell whether it’s the right move or not.
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:14 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    I am not sure that is entirely accurate

    Career average minutes over 30 = 39.9
    Career average minutes over 40 = 45.4
    Career average minutes over 50 = 51.9
    Career average minutes over 60 = 61.3

    He is priced at 29 - I guess it all depends on how many minutes you think he will get. I get the sense that he is due for at least 40 in two stints

    Worse case scenario - At the Knights in 2020 he averaged 38 points at an average of 40 minutes best case is much much better

    Its easy to fuck around with data though. Here I filtered by his prop starts-

    Career average playing under 40 mins = 31.8 in 37.5 mins (4 games)
    Career average playing under 50 mins = 37.7 in 41.1 mins (12 games)
    Career average playing under 60 mins = 42.8 in 47.5 mins (22 games)

    Nobody is doubting Herman has great PPM, but its all about his role going forward. At the moment we have little to no clue. You might get on the next hot cow a round before everyone else and save yourself $25k, but I still think it makes more sense to wait a round and see if he posts that 40 in 45 minutes before jumping on. The biggest upside to him right now is getting to say “I told you so” and basking in the immortal fame that this forum will no doubt shower you in for being the first to make the call on Herman Ese’ese.
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:17 pm

    GreenSchist wrote:Difita + Doorey to Hoskings + Frizell.

    Week 6 - Trindall out for a cashie (maybe AKP). Bank the other trade.
    Week 7 - Carty + Carrigan to Hynes + sub $450k player

    Could also downgrade Grant to a cheaper HOK during this period if I find I really need cash

    N.B. Working on writing up a Team Tracker for those who might be interested in following along for the ride

    I agree with Gareth’s kid, its only a matter of time until Fifita posts an 80+ with a try and everyone is scrambling to get him in like they are with Hosking and Hynes this week.
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:20 pm

    Pookus McFly wrote:

    Its easy to fuck around with data though. Here I filtered by his prop starts-

    Career average playing under 40 mins = 31.8 in 37.5 mins (4 games)
    Career average playing under 50 mins = 37.7 in 41.1 mins (12 games)
    Career average playing under 60 mins = 42.8 in 47.5 mins (22 games)

    Nobody is doubting Herman has great PPM, but its all about his role going forward. At the moment we have little to no clue. You might get on the next hot cow a round before everyone else and save yourself $25k, but I still think it makes more sense to wait a round and see if he posts that 40 in 45 minutes before jumping on. The biggest upside to him right now is getting to say “I told you so” and basking in the immortal fame that this forum will no doubt shower you in for being the first to make the call on Herman Ese’ese.

    Really POOKUS - I can see the forum frowning on such raucous vanity - it is hardly an upside.

    Those stats you have shared look pretty good to me though - thanks for sharing cheer
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:22 pm

    Interesting to see the takes RE: Hosking depending on if he can be fit into your team

    BSmith with maybe a rib injury was a must sell and gonna be terrible all year.

    Garner with a confirmed rib injury is back any week and a guaranteed starter
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:23 pm

    GreenSchist wrote:

    I don’t disagree. He’s playing great but unfortunately not making money.
    Cash gen is gonna be the key to my success this year and Fifita is my only pathway to Hoskings.

    Time will tell whether it’s the right move or not.

    I didn't start with Fifi for him to make money. I didn't think anyone did?
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:25 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:Interesting to see the takes RE: Hosking depending on if he can be fit into your team

    BSmith with maybe a rib injury was a must sell and gonna be terrible all year.

    Garner with a confirmed rib injury is back any week and a guaranteed starter

    I think the more accurate comparison is Smith is a sell and Garner is a sell. Hosking on the other side of the coin may be a buy or sell.
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    Post by Loomer Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:25 pm

    Pookus McFly wrote:

    I agree with Gareth’s kid, its only a matter of time until Fifita posts an 80+ with a try and everyone is scrambling to get him in like they are with Hosking and Hynes this week.

    At happened last season the week I sold him and it was downhill for me all the way after that


    Last edited by Loomer on Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:25 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:Interesting to see the takes RE: Hosking depending on if he can be fit into your team

    BSmith with maybe a rib injury was a must sell and gonna be terrible all year.

    Garner with a confirmed rib injury is back any week and a guaranteed starter

    Smith will be a buy after a 55 tonight though.

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    Post by easytiger Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:31 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    You should be more worried about fielding 17 in the post Origin rounds with 3 teams on byes than fielding 13 in Origin rounds

    Teddy is 100% in for me if Carty loses spot next week

    IMO the 13-player restriction means Origin players that have their bye on the major bye rounds are suddenly much better holds than previously.

    In rounds 13, 16, 19 you will have a minimum of 8 players that don't count - in a way it's potentially better if some of these are Origin players, especially if they are likely to back up in rounds 14, 17, 20.
    Teddy backed up after both Origin rounds last year, so he's a possible hold (as Origin means he potentially misses just 3 games from here, which is equivalent to a non-Origin player who hasn't had a bye yet).

    The only downside, of course, with holding Origin players is that their $ value is parked on the bench in the major byes.
    Too many, and it's fairly limiting what you can do in those major byes, given that they are often high-value fantasy-relevant players.

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