2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 42

Finch wrote:So people with trades spare are selling Barba now?

Fixed.

I can't afford to upgrade him at this stage and he might well be in my team for the duration of the season.

I have chosen to get in Teddy now, That makes it Barba - Munster - Tedesco

So hard to decide out of him and C.Walker but the Rabbitohs have a terrible fixture list so surely his avg. points will begin to drop off

filthridden wrote:

Fixed.

I can't afford to upgrade him at this stage and he might well be in my team for the duration of the season.

Fair enough. I just thought it might of been the flavour of the week.

Garden Chair wrote:I have chosen to get in Teddy now, That makes it Barba - Munster - Tedesco

So hard to decide out of him and C.Walker but the Rabbitohs have a terrible fixture list so surely his avg. points will begin to drop off

Beware he will most likely miss round 18 and they have a bye in round 19.

Im gonna captain Leilua this week, wish me luck.

Captain Smith against the Broncos for me.

charliemurphy wrote:Im gonna captain Leilua this week, wish me luck.

You got balls, but he would want to crush his old club you would think.

Don't think I can do that, will be Smith or Fifita for me. Have a feeling Fifita due for a season high game in the 80's or 90's. 79 is his highest, I think he's due a bigger one.

Bren wrote:I need to select 5 from this lot...

Jfriend
Gallen
Whitehead
Jtrbo
Hunt
Norman

I'm thinking after last week that I could leave out Jtrbo and select the rest? Manly also don't play till Monday night so if there are any late withdrawals I will have him there as backup. Any thoughts, comments, advice and mocking of myself in general is welcome.

I think leaving Jurbo out makes sense. They can all score as well each other and that way you can save yourself a shitty AE.

For those who might be a little less mathematically inclinded, here's a wee formula for if you're looking at trading in a player who plays one less game hoping they'll score higher over the remainder of the year

x = Player 1 (who plays all games from here on it)
y = Player 2 (who misses one game from here on it but has a higher average)
r = number of rounds remaining

x*r = total points scored by player 1
y*(r-1) = total points scored by player 2

Essentially, if y*(r-1) > x*r then trade the player in.

Of course you're basing this on expected averages.

Example, if you're thinking trading in Mannering vs say Merrin

Mannering misses one more round but you assume he'll average 60
You think Merrin is looking up with his average and should average 55 from here on in.

55*9 = 495
60*8 = 480

If you think that's what their averages will be for the next 9 rounds, then Merrin will score 15 more points overall and is therefore the better trade.

filthridden wrote:For those who might be a little less mathematically inclinded, here's a wee formula for if you're looking at trading in a player who plays one less game hoping they'll score higher over the remainder of the year

x = Player 1 (who plays all games from here on it)
y = Player 2 (who misses one game from here on it but has a higher average)
r = number of rounds remaining

x*r = total points scored by player 1
y*(r-1) = total points scored by player 2

Essentially, if y*(r-1) > x*r then trade the player in.

Of course you're basing this on expected averages.

As a ridiculously intricate bye planner type player, I use this for pretty much every selection. Have never actually seen it articulated like this and it's a very handsome equation I must say.

filthridden wrote:For those who might be a little less mathematically inclinded, here's a wee formula for if you're looking at trading in a player who plays one less game hoping they'll score higher over the remainder of the year

x = Player 1 (who plays all games from here on it)
y = Player 2 (who misses one game from here on it but has a higher average)
r = number of rounds remaining

x*r = total points scored by player 1
y*(r-1) = total points scored by player 2

Essentially, if y*(r-1) > x*r then trade the player in.

Of course you're basing this on expected averages.

Very nice Filth, but I'm going to add to it.

If on the round that the bye player misses, you can still field a team of 17, then you should factor in the points that his replacement will score.

Eg Merrin vs Mannering, lets just say that when Mannering has his bye, you can still field 17 players, it just means that you'll be playing Dale Copley when he would otherwise miss out, then you should include Copley's 20 points in your equation, in which case maybe Mannering is the better option.

SI wrote:

As a ridiculously intricate bye planner type player, I use this for pretty much every selection.  Have never actually seen it articulated like this and it's a very handsome equation I must say.

Flattery will get you nowhere, kind sir!

(actually will)

Milchcow wrote:


Very nice Filth, but I'm going to add to it.

If on the round that the bye player misses, you can still field a team of 17, then you should factor in the points that his replacement will score.

Eg Merrin vs Mannering, lets just say that when Mannering has his bye, you can still field 17 players, it just means that you'll be playing Dale Copley when he would otherwise miss out, then you should include Copley's 20 points in your equation, in which case maybe Mannering is the better option.

Exactly true! (except for Copley managing to score 20 points )

For Merrin you also need to factor where Sally Fitzgibbons is = if she is overseas he plays like a wounded bull so multiply his average by 1.32.
When she is at home he plays like TRex after signing a new contract and scores like him too...

Jahrome Hughes has signed for Melbourne from next year.

I would suspect he's unlikely to play again for the Cowboys this year. Bit annoying for those who wanted him for round 18, but at least we got 1 good score out of him

What's the chance of Holland missing tonights game? (or is it a case of waiting til 30 mins before it starts?)

Lots of talk about trading out Parcell, mostly to Friend or Rein.
Is no one interested in McCullough?
He's priced very nicely and should drop again after this round.
If he can get his 80 min role back he's an absolute bargain.
He's on my watchlist if Parcell shares minutes with Korisau.

Neillo wrote:What's the chance of Holland missing tonights game? (or is it a case of waiting til 30 mins before it starts?)

Last I heard was that Josh Morris had to pass a fitness test to play.
I'd say Holland is first in line to lose his spot.

Milchcow wrote:
Jahrome Hughes has signed for Melbourne from next year.

I would suspect he's unlikely to play again for the Cowboys this year. Bit annoying for those who wanted him for round 18, but at least we got 1 good score out of him

Looking forward to next year then