HomeWhat impact does goal kicking have on Moses scores.
He shared with Rankin last year, and what happens this year could make or break his value.
I'd check myself but I'm on holiday and don't have access to my spreadsheets
2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 2
Milchcow- Moderator
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What impact does goal kicking have on Moses scores.
He shared with Rankin last year, and what happens this year could make or break his value.
I'd check myself but I'm on holiday and don't have access to my spreadsheets
Milchcow- Moderator
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I'm still tempted by Moses, because he was better in 2016 than 2015 and I expect his improvement to continue
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Warriors wrote:
Why, please explain? I think he only plays 60 minutes, and even if he plays 80 minutes there is more chance for missed tackles at the end of the game. Have a look at his missed tackle counts and I reckon he won't go as well as others think he will
Either Buhrer or Barnett will play lock & Sione will play 80 mins as an edge 2fr. Second rowers have no trouble playing 80 mins on the edge. It's the middle forwards that do the grunt work & need a rest. Last year Sione went from the backs to the forwards for the last few games so it was like diving into the deep end. This year he'll have a full off season conditioning himself to the rigours of playing in the forwards & will have no problem playing 80 mins. He'll also make plenty of tackles because the Knights will spend most of their time defending. Missed tackles won't be a problem for Sione due to his pre season conditioning.
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Milchcow wrote:
I'm still tempted by Moses, because he was better in 2016 than 2015 and I expect his improvement to continue
Wests first 5 games = souths (a), panthers (h), raiders (a), storm (h), dragons (h)
Moses should do well against souths but then he has 3 games against teams who finished in the top 4 in 2016. Based on the fact that Moses has a high error/missed tackle rate in tough games I can't really see him doing anything against Panthers, Raiders, Storm.
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
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Milchcow wrote:
What impact does goal kicking have on Moses scores.
He shared with Rankin last year, and what happens this year could make or break his value.
I'd check myself but I'm on holiday and don't have access to my spreadsheets
Moses average in games where he kicks goals: 44.7
Moses average in games where he doesn't kick goals: 32.9
Moses average points from goal kicks: 6.6
Number of games kicking goals: 13 games
Note didn't include any games he went 0/X
Round 4 neither Rankin or Moses scored points from goals. In round 23 Moses had 2 successful goals and Rankin had one. Both played 80 minutes
Rippin and Tearin- Posts : 5031
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multiple.scoregasms wrote:
Moses average in games where he kicks goals: 44.7
Moses average in games where he doesn't kick goals: 32.9
Moses average points from goal kicks: 6.6
Number of games kicking goals: 13 games
Note didn't include any games he went 0/X
Round 4 neither Rankin or Moses scored points from goals. In round 23 Moses had 2 successful goals and Rankin had one. Both played 80 minutes
Any chance you could let me know the rounds where Moses kicked? Could potentially have a huge influence on the no Farah rationalle
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Rippin and Tearin wrote:
I've just run the numbers (hopefuly the right ones), and Im not sure how you can call this the Brooks effect?
I dont even think there is a game in the whole season where Brooks was out & Farah was in was there? You would need a few of those surely if you were going to attribute Brooks being out to changes in Moses scores? Otherwise I think you are at serious risk of confounding Brooks being out with Farrah also being out...
So to look at this in my opinion you need to look at the three possible scenarios: Farah and Brooks out, Farah only out, and Brooks only out. The following show those scores and subsequnet averages:
F & B out: 3 games 47, 71, 22 => ave=46.7
F only out: 12 games 40, 29, 36, 48, 33, 10, 48, 44, 70, 78, 54, 31 => ave=43.4
B only out: No games
Moses currently priced at 39.6 so on that basis with Farah gone I guess we can say he is roughly 4 points per game undervalued.
Feel free to correct me if I've gone wrong somewhere.
I think that was my point exactly, that there is a heap of variables and the "Farah effect" is just a simplification, and the issue warranted further discussion.
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After the Tigers released Lovett I'm liking the look of Josh Aloaia as an early season reserve! Decent price likely will be getting some decent minutes 60 min perhaps and maybe the 80 if Lawrence starts to break down? Low 30s shouldn't be tough to achieve and should make some decent cash
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mulvy wrote:
I think that was my point exactly, that there is a heap of variables and the "Farah effect" is just a simplification, and the issue warranted further discussion.
I'd agree. With less than 4 points splitting the so called "Farah effect" from what Moses is priced at (based on the very simple analysis myself and others have done, Im not sure you can confidently say at all that there is in fact a "Farah Effect"!! There is way too much other that Farah going on to draw any conclusions.
I'd be interested to see what controlling for goal kicking does to the equation though....
Milchcow- Moderator
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Welshy wrote:After the Tigers released Lovett I'm liking the look of Josh Aloaia as an early season reserve! Decent price likely will be getting some decent minutes 60 min perhaps and maybe the 80 if Lawrence starts to break down? Low 30s shouldn't be tough to achieve and should make some decent cash
Tigers haven't actually released Lovett at this point have they? JuSt reports of wanting him gone.
Either way, Aloaia is probably going to get a starting spot
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Haha gotta love the back and forward arguments on the thread pre-season. Looking at player's scores from all different angles.
Thanks for all the research gents!
Thanks for all the research gents!
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
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Rippin and Tearin wrote:
Any chance you could let me know the rounds where Moses kicked? Could potentially have a huge influence on the no Farah rationalle
1,2,3,5,13,14,16,17,18,21,22,23,24
Welshy- Moderator
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Should do mate and offers a bit of value, he is around the price of the bronco debates Arrow/Pangai but his job role and minutes look a lot more set! His scores were not fantastic even when he played decent minutes so not expecting not a huge increase in money making potential or scores but he is a decent option for sureMilchcow wrote:
Tigers haven't actually released Lovett at this point have they? JuSt reports of wanting him gone.
Either way, Aloaia is probably going to get a starting spot
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I can't see Lovett going anywhere. Reports are that we are 200k over the cap which would put his wage at 300k to supposedly get us under and I just can't see anyone paying that for him.Milchcow wrote:
Tigers haven't actually released Lovett at this point have they? JuSt reports of wanting him gone.
Either way, Aloaia is probably going to get a starting spot
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Warriors wrote:
Why, please explain? I think he only plays 60 minutes, and even if he plays 80 minutes there is more chance for missed tackles at the end of the game. Have a look at his missed tackle counts and I reckon he won't go as well as others think he will
As a centre he'll do fine.
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multiple.scoregasms wrote:
1,2,3,5,13,14,16,17,18,21,22,23,24
OK thanks, so pretty spread out I guess, so very back of the envelope stuff, but based on those games you might be able to attribute roughly one point of those 4 points for the "Farah effect" to goal kicking. So the Farah effect becomes 3 points...
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Lookng at Alioia to improve as well. Watch trials though as he broke his jaw in pre-season. Not sure where he is at with full contact yet.
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I felt Moses got better with his kicking. A lot of the ones he missed early in the season were easier ones. He actually had a horror run of tough kicks from out wide later (my eldest and I were talking about this the other day).
His goal kicking was actually the difference between us making and not making the Finals. That may sound harsh but it's true I reckon. We had one of the worst records for losing close games. Now we had our fair share of tough calls, but I reckon they even out over a season. What makes a difference in a season is when you have you have your goal kicker at less than 50% in a few games and averaging less than 70% overall.
The club will make it a priority in pre-season and I would like to think the confidence he got in his general play in 2016 will help as well.
His goal kicking was actually the difference between us making and not making the Finals. That may sound harsh but it's true I reckon. We had one of the worst records for losing close games. Now we had our fair share of tough calls, but I reckon they even out over a season. What makes a difference in a season is when you have you have your goal kicker at less than 50% in a few games and averaging less than 70% overall.
The club will make it a priority in pre-season and I would like to think the confidence he got in his general play in 2016 will help as well.
Milchcow- Moderator
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Goal kicking is allegedly the reason behind Hastings being considered for a starting spot at manly.
As for Moses, he unquestionably improved his actual play after Farah was dropped, the main question is the impact on his fantasy scores
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Milchcow wrote:
Goal kicking is allegedly the reason behind Hastings being considered for a starting spot at manly.
As for Moses, he unquestionably improved his actual play after Farah was dropped, the main question is the impact on his fantasy scores
So far my best guess is that without Farah he may be 3 points undervalued, a further 3 points if he kicks.
Quick question, how much value do you go looking for to find "undervalued" players. I.e. are you looking for 5 points, 7 points, 10+ points before you generally deem someone to be undervalued and worth picking up? Im sure its price & position dependent, and probably dependent on the season etc, but I guess Im trying to figure out what sort of value should I be looking for before I start to really add guys to my watch list?
Cheers