QLD State of Origin 2019 Thread

ryno_ wrote:

Sportsbet didnt get a net worth of $300m by offering $2.80 to raging favourites.

Thanks captain obvious, and people don't keep betting if EVERYONE loses every time. On this one, they have it wrong and those taking the value offered about QLD will prosper.

I can't believe experts are calling for Hunt to be the 9. He's a halfback, has said in the past (last season) he doesn't want to play hooker but will do what's best for the team. McCullough is a thousand times better at hooker than Ben Hunt is.

Replacing the best hooker of all time with a halfback seems like stupidity to me.

Ice wrote:

Thanks captain obvious, and people don't keep betting if EVERYONE loses every time. On this one, they have it wrong and those taking the value offered about QLD will prosper.

So... are you saying that a betting company worth well over 1/4 a billion dollars is getting it wrong on purpose to give the punters a win to keep them coming back, or that they are idiots and have the huge underdogs priced at $1.50 incorrectly?

Honestly, either arguement is pretty bold.

Hey, dont betting companies make more money when there is an upset?

you do realise that the bookies had NSW as fav a few times even against the best team ever?
They do shit to get people to bet.

No one in their right minds has genuinely had nsw as fav to win in the last 14 years - besides betting companies

Pieman wrote:

Dont bookies make more money when there is an upset?

In sports betting generally they try to even their books so it doesn't matter who wins. In racing the certainly make more with an upset.

Pieman wrote:you do realise that the bookies had NSW as fav a few times even against the best team ever?
They do shit to get people to bet.

No one in their right minds has genuinely had nsw as fav to win in the last 14 years - besides betting companies

You have no idea how bookies work, you sound like you've got a tin foil hat on.
If bookies were putting up incorrect prices just to entice mugs than the sharps would crush them and the price would work back to were it should be anyway. That doesn't generally happen because their prices are a hell of a lot closer to perfect than what a bloke trying to hold onto underdog status wants.

Ice wrote:

Thanks captain obvious, and people don't keep betting if EVERYONE loses every time. On this one, they have it wrong and those taking the value offered about QLD will prosper.

Seen it many times over the years but your desperation for underdog status is not even subtle anymore Ice.

Would have been a better argument to suggest Sportsbet's net worth was actually somewhat built on cash back promotions designed to keep you punting and that this may have been an instance where they were willing to take a loss, for a greater overall gain.......absolute rubbish but still better than your pitiful attempt.

In summary, lift your game.

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

Seen it many times over the years but your desperation for underdog status is not even subtle anymore Ice.

Would have been a better argument to suggest Sportsbet's net worth was actually somewhat built on cash back promotions designed to keep you punting and that this may have been an instance where they were willing to take a loss, for a greater overall gain.......absolute rubbish but still better than your pitiful attempt.

In summary, lift your game.

Who has the Better spine? Now find me the last time a weaker spine won and Origin series when Hayne wasn't  dominant?

The best spienwins more Origin series than it loses. Punting against that is folly.suggesting the team with the clearly weaker spine is favourite just cause the other team have lost some immortals is just dunce!

Your spine is clearly superior and save for you likely 9, has a history of winning, as does your likely backline and the bulk of your pack. The NSW team will have oodles less Origin games experience and a weaker spine, how on gods green earth does that make us favourites?

Krump wrote:
You have no idea how bookies work, you sound like you've got a tin foil hat on.
If bookies were putting up incorrect prices just to entice mugs than the sharps would crush them and the price would work back to were it should be anyway. That doesn't generally happen because their prices are a hell of a lot closer to perfect than what a bloke trying to hold onto underdog status wants.

The price is determined by the market so that regardless, the bookies win you bunch of simpletons.THAT is their whole fucking business model.  It's you same simpletons and the masses of them in NSW that make NSW favs and it's why I have never lost a cent backing the "NSW Favourites", cause the smart money says they never have been true Favourites for over a decade. But if the smart money was with the majority, the bookies wouldn't be in business now would they cause the masses would be winning, but the masses are fucking dullards who do their arse hand over fist week in week out and the bookies love it!

Ice wrote:

The price is determined by the market so that regardless, the bookies win you bunch of simpletons.THAT is their whole fucking business model.  It's you same simpletons and the masses of them in NSW that make NSW favs and it's why I have never lost a cent backing the "NSW Favourites", cause the smart money says they never have been true Favourites for over a decade. But if the smart money was with the majority, the bookies wouldn't be in business now would they cause the masses would be winning, but the masses are fucking dullards who do their arse hand over fist week in week out and the bookies love it!

Nothing more dangerous than an idiot who THINKS that they understand something that they don't. Since you're so convinced post up your betslip backing QLD.

Krump wrote:
Nothing more dangerous than an idiot who THINKS that they understand something that they don't. Since you're so convinced post up your betslip backing QLD.

I could show you bet slips from the last 5/6 years backing QLD against NSW, with NSW as favs in every game.
I have collected well, just about every single time because no one in the right minds had nsw as genuine fav over the last 12 or so years.

Krump wrote:
Nothing more dangerous than an idiot who THINKS that they understand something that they don't. Since you're so convinced post up your betslip backing QLD.

You absolute dullard! 1) What kind of a pecker head keeps their betting slips on the off chance they feel the need to win an internet argument with a pop tart that has no idea what he is talking about? 2) I've never said I've backed Qld, but I sure as shit haven't done my arse on NSW, and even if I had the slips to show, wouldn't be fucked posting them to convince you. 3) are you actually suggesting the market doesn't determine the price, that betting markets don't fluctuate based on weight of money? You absolute goon bag , I've never heard something so bonkers in all my life. 4) I've been in (worked) in the gambling industry for 20 years you simpleton and those controlling the odds win, otherwise why would we do it. Why would we give money to people just for the fun of it? fucking deadset, that will absolutely do me.

I think people need to understand the difference between being favourites based on the price that the market has determined, and in Origin that is heavily skewed based on state allegiance, and being logical favourites (with no money/odds involved at all) based on logic and reason.

I can totally understand how and why NSW have been and likely will be favourites on the betting markets, it's because of the dumb arse masses, simple.

But logic and reason has clearly had Qld as Favourites for about the past decade save for 2014 (when as I predicted since 2009, that NSW would win when Hayne was first choice FB for a full series) and will be again come game 1 in my humble, logical and reasoned opnion.

Ice wrote:
You absolute dullard! 1) What kind of a pecker head keeps their betting slips on the off chance they feel the need to win an internet argument

A special kind of pecker head indeed Icicle, my simple friend.....

Pieman wrote:
I could show you bet slips from the last 5/6 years backing QLD against NSW

The bookies fucking love state of origin because no matter who wins, the vast majority of mugs simply hand their winnings back to the bookies, by placing more bets with their winnings. There is a reason why there is a bucketload of promos at every big book at origin time. Once you have deposited money, the odds are in their favour.

Either way, before the majority re-invest their winnings, they're in front.

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

A special kind of pecker head indeed Icicle, my simple friend.....

are you too old to have a sportsbet account mate? you know it keeps your betting history there right??

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

A special kind of pecker head indeed Icicle, my simple friend.....

In Piemans defence, did he keep them to win an argument on an Internet forum as I suggested, or just cause he likes to keeps tabs on his spending?

Regardless, I personally find it slightly odd.

Pieman wrote:

are you too old to have a sportsbet account mate? you know it keeps your betting history there right??

Ahh, there you go, very fair point Pieman.

Ice wrote:

In Piemans defence, did he keep them to win an argument on an Internet forum as I suggested, or just cause he likes to keeps tabs on his spending?

Regardless, I personally find it slightly odd.

I was just pointing out something I found funny to be honest.....

Anyway, a lot of talking about betting markets, purely based on a throwaway shit-stirring comment by you which was basically a standard tactic to try and downplay any chance of your team winning.

So back to Pieman being a weirdo......the strangest thing in this whole discussion is his claim that he has bet on QLD for the last 5/6 years.

Now I love a punt but I can tell you there is fuck all chancce I'll bet on NSW regardless of their chances.