2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 1

Chewie wrote:

2017 = 54.5
2016 = 61.6
2015 = 64.8
2014 = 60.5

-this content was sponsored by @Milchcow's 2017 Teamplanner-

Thanks mate!

Happy New Year guys. Life took over last year with baby, buying house etc so went off the radar half way through last year.

Just some early thoughts from me regarding some players:

Tedesco is a must have - in Roosters team and by far the easiest draw.
Tohu Harris will be in my team - lots of defending to do for the Warriors so should get back to a 50+ average
Jai Arrow - must have if 2017 Jarrod Wallace is anything to go by.
Cameron Smith should be in every team. Only reason not to would be if Farah does an injury and Cook gets the 80 mins. Garvey/Raiders Hooker will be a goer.
Nat Butcher will be one to watch out for this year - Can see TKO/Liu moving to FRF rotation with Kane Evans/Guerra gone and Butcher could even start at lock.
Jesse Bromwich will bounce back in a big way so will probably get the nod in my team given the loss of McClean.
If Bryce Cartwright starts round 1 he will be in every team.
DCE may be in for a significant KM increase (dependent on Manly 5/ and bigger role without Blake Green so will be under serious consideration pre round 1.

Not sure on how Mclean will improve at Cowboys enough to warrant selection. Also, I don't think Lodge will be the one to benefit enough to warrant having from Blair, Ese'ese, Arrow leaving.
Andre Savelio, Patrick Mago, and Sam Tagatese have been signed also and George Fai is still floating around.

Korbin Sims will start but not sure who with but probably Thaiday plays prop. Personally think TPJ benefits the most from all the departures.

A lot depends on round 1 team lists at this stage but I'm leaning towards the following so far:

Cam Smith
Garvey
Lodge
Crichton
Aarow
DCE
Inglis
Hiku
Ponga

A few others on the radar of course but the number of cheapies named round 1 are going to dictate a lot of how teams shape up this year, I think.

On other news, does anyone else think its fucked up that when you sign up for nrl.com account or whatever it is, when you pick a national team you can either pick the mens team or the womens team? Like wtf I can't support both?!!?

filthridden wrote:On other news, does anyone else think its fucked up that when you sign up for nrl.com account or whatever it is, when you pick a national team you can either pick the mens team or the womens team? Like wtf I can't support both?!!?

i think you're reading into it a little too much, as far as i know there's no way to view the profiles of others, so it likely just a base functionality thing to tell the site which news it should be pushing in front of your eyeballs

I'm not so sure on DCE this year. He probably won't be the goal kicker & gauging from the Manly forums if they go with Croker in the halves the forums think he'll be getting most of the kick metres. That would basically just leave DCE with attacking stats. Plus the forums think their team & mainly the pack are rubbish so if DCE is just relying on attacking stats for the bulk of his points then he may not score that well.

I think I might go with a bit of a left field pick as my main half & pick Croft. Munster is a running half & won't be doing much kicking in general play. Fair enough Smith could be doing more kicking but I think Croft will get the bulk kick metres. Croft also showed at the end of the season that he's no slouch himself attacking wise & has a clean pair of heals

I haven't really thought too much about team selection yet, but my early thoughts are

I don't want to touch Crichton. Guys who have killer seasons like that almost always regress to the mean. Ryan James from a few years ago springs to mind. I just doubt Crichton will be able to replicate his try scoring feats from last year.


I have doubts about Matt Lodge. Even is he has the skills to maintain a first grade spot, I'm sure it won't be long before he has a brain explosion. I guess being at Brisbane now, the chances of him getting suspended for off-field activities has reduced, but I still have concerns.

Cam Smith is that far ahead of every other hooker that he will almost certainly be in my team.
Canberra hooker looks an early backup suggestion. Just hope they don't rotate too much.

Tigers backline looks like it can provide value, but want some job security before picking anyone.
With only 21 players this year can't afford to have too many guys on the fringe. Everyone needs to be making cash or scoring points.

Back for another year guys. Think it will be quite easy coming uyp with a strong team to start the season just injuries will be a make or break for most teams

9.4m cap =447.62k per player
4 npr rookies = 848k
so we get to work with just over 500k per player for our first starting 17 not to shabby if you ask me

@Milchcow

here's a few more bugs in the teamplanner:
Matthew Eisenhuth, Alex Twal, Esan Marsters, Victor Radley, Max King, Moses Suli, MWZ, Braiden Burns... just some stats missing.

From nrl.com

"Value buy: Matt Scott

Speaking of Matthew Scott, the Kangaroos front-rower has become a genuinely cheap option after playing just two games in 2017 and averaging 35 points. That brings his break even way down to 27 at the start of the new season – making him great value considering he generally scores in the mid-40s and has a Fantasy century to his name. At the age of 32, whether he comes back from injury the same player remains to be seen, but unlike other cheapies he does have guaranteed job security when fit."

At 503k isn't he priced at about 34?

mulvy wrote:From nrl.com

"Value buy: Matt Scott

Speaking of Matthew Scott, the Kangaroos front-rower has become a genuinely cheap option after playing just two games in 2017 and averaging 35 points. That brings his break even way down to 27 at the start of the new season – making him great value considering he generally scores in the mid-40s and has a Fantasy century to his name. At the age of 32, whether he comes back from injury the same player remains to be seen, but unlike other cheapies he does have guaranteed job security when fit."

At 503k isn't he priced at about 34?

I noticed that too... his average for 2016 was 36.4
I don't see much value in starting with him in my team, if he was priced at 27 (402k) it would be a different story

Milchcow wrote:
I don't want to touch Crichton. Guys who have killer seasons like that almost always regress to the mean. Ryan James from a few years ago springs to mind. I just doubt Crichton will be able to replicate his try scoring feats from last year.

I'm going to start with Crichton as my VC. He averaged around 65points when playing close to 80 mins, with a BE of 60 I'm happy to take the punt.

I am however curious to see what the Rabbits are planning to do with Murray and Surgess

They probably wrote the Matt Scott article before they'd finalised the pricing. And whoever wrote it was just assuming he'd be priced on 2017 scores.

He might be underpriced, but he is certainly not priced at cheapie level

Chewie wrote:

I'm going to start with Crichton as my VC. He averaged around 65points when playing close to 80 mins, with a BE of 60 I'm happy to take the punt.

I am however curious to see what the Rabbits are planning to do with Murray and Surgess

Surgess 2fr/frf & Murray lock is the way I think they'll go just like the end of the 2017 season.

Reading some of the Lodge comments I tend to agree. I think with the way the Broncos play & with McGuire usually taking the first hitup as if he was a prop when he's at lock I just don't think Lodge will score that well fantasy wise. In fact I can't think of any Broncos frf's over the last 5 years that have really been fantasy relevant. I feel this is down to minutes because with Macca being an 80 minute hooker then the frf's just don't get enough minutes because they used a 4 prop rotation with no hooker on the bench.

White Lightning wrote:Reading some of the Lodge comments I tend to agree. I think with the way the Broncos play & with McGuire usually taking the first hitup as if he was a prop when he's at lock I just don't think Lodge will score that well fantasy wise. In fact I can't think of any Broncos frf's over the last 5 years that have really been fantasy relevant. I feel this is down to minutes because with Macca being an 80 minute hooker then the frf's just don't get enough minutes because they used a 4 prop rotation with no hooker on the bench.

Hmmm... food for thought

Looking at his stats for 2015, he does seem to make a few TBs and offloads...that always helps the fantasy scores...
And I suspect the new int/emg bench format will require at least 4 FRFs.

If he gets in the 17, at 365k he'll probably end up in my team somewhere

Is there stats for 2017 anywhere?

Think it's going to be a lot more challenging this year because we effectively start with 4 spots killed off so there's simply a lot less chance to make money. Means nobody will be able to afford a 17/18 gun team post-origin so team makeup should be very different rather than all the same guys at the close. Makes the Rnd1 team ultra-important because some of those mid-rangers are going to be there all year.

Mulvy, stats for 2017 are still on the fantasy phone app.