Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach 2019 - End result 40th

Cheers for the kind messages @Chewie @Sajjos

Will kick this into another gear

Trade planning V6002.4 8 trades remaining
Roughly aiming at 5-6 trades prior to 16 leaving 2-3 trades purely for long injuries in the run home
Currently have x5 RD16 players (though quality options), so laiming at 10-11 players total for this round

Current team
The bold options below are absolute clear cut best players in their positions so they are out of the trade out debate

Cook
Fifita Haas
Taumalolo Murray Taupau
Moses Brimson
Nikora Bateman
Tedesco Ponga CNK

Smith Mcinnes Mahoney Martin

Dearden Xerri Brittain Sivo

________________________________
325k in bank

Definite trade outs

CNK - 536k - doesn't play rd16
Sivo - 512k - low floor, doesn't play rd16
Dearden -348k - injured
Mahoney - 645k doesn't play rd16, step below keeper as well

Potential trade outs for rd16

Moses - 689k doesn't play rd16 but close to keeper scores
Martin - 399k doesnt play rd16 but could be a late bloomer/cash cow
Murray - 749k doesn't play rd16 but last resort trade out pending analysis
Taupau - 716k doesn't play rd16 but last resort trade out pending analysis

Luxury trade outs
Xerri- 516k
Brimson - 490k doesn't play rd16 but DPP HLF/WFB works well with Xerri covering backs

So there is a few things to look at with my team and upcoming rd 16 bye.
The bold options in the team above are absolute clear cut best players in their positions so they are out of the trade out debate

Players like Murray/Taupau/Moses could possibly have cut price alternatives that may average more from rd16 onwards but more importantly rd16 points so we need to look at this question.
Also may help free up cash to build depth spreading the cash further and even possible a few POD's

So is trading a potential keeper worth a sideways trade for bye points?
Maybe.....

Will have to do some maths and see how it looks but lets base this on everyone playing 9 games from rd 17 onwards
Some origin players could get rested playing reduced minutes (or not at all) after origin too, so something to consider.

The thing with bye points is these are pure profit and potential for a straight up points gain other others.
Someone who scores 50 over a 0 is massive, and other than injuries this variance doesn't happen when comparing players to say another team.
Every other week teams scores fluctuate though there is some similarity to these scores, most good teams there may only be a points bracket/range of say 50pts and that could just be captain scores.
The reason to this is to finish the year most have full teams of similar 'best' players so ground isn't lost or made up here.
Also bringing in guns too late means they also have little impact on this and the longer you wait the worst it gets here too


So playing around with some scenarios, lets look at 3 similar type players who play rd 16 and see how it looks if we bring them in compared to 'borderline keepers'
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Murray 749k 56pts x 9 games = 504
Finucane 581k 49pts x 10 games = 490   (avg calculated removing injury effected game)
This example shows that you lose 15 points overall but free up close to 200k and gain points in rd16 (As long as Finucane doesn't play origin)
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Moses 689k 52pts x 9 games = 468
Johnson 648k 50pts x 10 games = 500
This example may free up to 100k with both plays trending different ways, and a potential gain of 50pts in rd16 (As long as Johnson stays fit)
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Mahoney 645k 50pts x 9 games = 450pts
Taupau 716k 54pts x 9 games = 486
Taukeiaho 636k 49pts x 10 = 490
This example may free up to 100k with current trends, though overall is the same for Taupau to Taukieaho (Mahoney to Taukeiaho is almost 100pts upgrade when bye taken into account)

So looking at the following outs and seeing what I can get with this

Outs
CNK - 536k
Sivo - 512k
Dearden -348k
Mahoney - 645k

2,041k + 325k in bank = 2,366k

In
Johnson - 600k
Finucane - 580k
Taukeiaho - 636k
RTS - 550k

=2,366k

Now this is a rough look at some trade options though with some luck and price increases/decreases could even be doable on 4 trades. (Leaves me 4 for the run home)
At a push could even play Martin or trade him instead to Dearden if cash needed too.
The below would give me 9 players for the bye as well.

Leaving me with a team:

Cook (c)
Fifita Haas
Taumalolo Murray Finucane
Johnson Moses
Bateman Nikora
Tedesco Ponga RTS

Smith Mcinnes Taupau Taukeiaho

Brimson (HLF/WFB) Xerri (CTR) Martin (2RF) Brittain (Loop)

_________________________________________________________________________

The main problem is timing, RTS/Johnson are both falling in price and need looking at, while Finucane is a smokey for origin
So this may mean I may be best to hold trades this week.

Dearden (or Brittain) allows me a look at Xerri this week with Martin into 17th man if needed.
Brimson starts at half, while Sivo covers a late out from Tedesco
CNK and Mahoney get another week to impress and push their case to be kept.

If I knew Tedesco was going to play 100% then that would help with trades this week

Other cheap players under consideration to fill out the squad are Watson/Norman/Harris/Twal

Hard to really form a trade plan around SJ until he is actually named to start isn't it?

I personally am not keen on him anyway, too much of an injury liability, especially with 2-3 trades projected post round 17.

If I were you I'd probably hold on most trades this week. You can have a free look at Brimson at half using Dearden on the loop. If he stinks it up I'd look at pulling trigger on a new half or shift Ponga into half and grabbing a new wfb. I'd also use Brittain to loop Xerri for your 17th spot (use Martin if Xerri is no good).

I would however probably pull the trigger on one trade, bringing SST in for Sivo or Mahoney. Im a little nervous about Teddy getting a late rest, hence perhaps Mahoney would be the preferred trade out.

I may not have thought that through enough mate, so apologies if theres a flaw there. In any case, some ideas

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Hard to really form a trade plan around SJ until he is actually named to start isn't it?

I personally am not keen on him anyway, too much of an injury liability, especially with 2-3 trades projected post round 17.

If I were you I'd probably hold on most trades this week. You can have a free look at Brimson at half using Dearden on the loop. If he stinks it up I'd look at pulling trigger on a new half or shift Ponga into half and grabbing a new wfb. I'd also use Brittain to loop Xerri for your 17th spot (use Martin if Xerri is no good).

I would however probably pull the trigger on one trade, bringing SST in for Sivo or Mahoney. Im a little nervous about Teddy getting a late rest, hence perhaps Mahoney would be the preferred trade out.

I may not have thought that through enough mate, so apologies if theres a flaw there. In any case, some ideas

Hey mate cheers for having a look over
Good point regarding the Dearden loop, didn't look at it this way. I have the Xerri/Martin one setup currently
Regarding trades, would look at 1-2 max with the aim for 4 in RD16

Been thinking more about Johnson and may run him as my 17th man now instead (Bring in rd16) and may opt for 2 decent starting halves instead.
That way all my eggs aren't in one basket should he not work out or get injured.
Would use Moses as the means to bring him in rd16, at worst I can keep Moses there.
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Potential round 16 trade outs Martin/Moses/Murray/CNK for Pearce/Johnson/RTS and one of Finucane/Harris/Matterson (Pending origin,injury,origin and cash)
Have some flexibilty here but would wait until rd16 to guarantee they play this round.

Giving me for the run home (Bold plays rd16)

Cook
Fifita Haas
Taumalolo Taupau Finucane
Milford Pearce
Bateman Nikora
Tedesco Ponga RTS

Smith Mcinnes Taukeiaho Johnson

Xerri Brimson Dearden Brittain
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How does that look as a rough plan?
I realise I would be gambling on Murray but someone like Harris/Finucane/Twal on their day can put his scores out for 200k less and play the bye along with being a POD (to have a go at the table above me).
Got to take some risks somewhere.
Also understand no Turbo's but can't have them all

Round 14 trades 54k in bank

Anthony Milford 783k

Out Sivo

Round 14 team

Cook
Fifita Haas
Taumalolo (C) Taupau Murray
Milford Moses
Bateman Nikora
Tedesco Ponga CNK

Smith Mcinnes Mahoney Martin

Xerri Dearden Brimson Brittain

____________________________________

Brimson covers for any late outs (Tedesco)

I've just noticed how similar our teams are. The great convergence of the fantasy season is in full flight.

Me / You
SST / Cook
Havili / Dearden
RTS / Brimson

Great ranking by the way! Keep pushing!

Verbal Kint wrote:I've just noticed how similar our teams are. The great convergence of the fantasy season is in full flight.

Me / You
SST / Cook
Havili / Dearden
RTS / Brimson

Yeah it's funny how they all seem to merge at a certain point but this will always happen naturally, just depends on how early certain players come in.
Cheers mate cheering you on to win this.

Round 15 Trades 3k remaining

Alex Twal 675k

Oliver Clark 218k

Have brought in a DPP player to cover Fifita out until he is back in Twal, and a dice roll on a max cash out in Oliver Clark who allows this trade to happen this week

Out CNK and Dearden

Round 15 Team

Cook (c)
Taupau Haas
Taumalolo Twal Murray
Milford Moses
Nikora Bateman
Tedesco Ponga Brimson

Smith Mcinnes Mahoney Martin

Clark
Fifita
Xerri
Brittain

Pity about Ponga, your team looked to be scoring really well

Shanbon wrote:Pity about Ponga, your team looked to be scoring really well

That's the way the cookie crumbles sometime.
If I had of known a day earlier about Ponga I would have either traded in RTS or kept CNK and had 17 but that's the way it goes sometimes

So bit of an update, broke both my elbows this morning coming off my bike so in 2 slings.
All good other than that
The upside is I have plenty of time to watch footy and do fantasy haha

Milchy wrote:
Doesn't sound good Boozey.

Good luck with the recovery.

Cheers mate, optimistic that it heals fast and should be all good for the meetup .
Shame there is only 4 games this weekend, will have to find other stuff to watch haha