Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach 2019 - End result 40th

I really love that anyone you bring in has to be for the starting 13 should upgrade points/cash or is an NPR and is there to make cash due to the stacked bench.

Really reinforces exactly what you are trying to do with your trades. Love where you are going this year. Best of luck.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:I really love that anyone you bring in has to be for the starting 13 should upgrade points/cash or is an NPR and is there to make cash due to the stacked bench.

Really reinforces exactly what you are trying to do with your trades. Love where you are going this year. Best of luck.

Thanks mate, yeah didn't want to tie up too much money in the NPR's early on so all money is going towards scoring players.

This is part of the reason with how I build my team from cows up.
It means if the cows are good enough to start then they go into the 13 as you aren't paying much for their points.
Also leaves you without those hard decisions like benching a mid range player for a cow which is hardly the best use of funds early on too or choosing which cow to play.
It meant once I was happy with the makeup of the team it left me enough free cash that I was able to grab a luxury keeper in Smith
Also left me without the decision of choosing between McCullough/Friend and gamble on 2 cheaper hookers instead which worked out great in hindsight.

I am interested as well in how this all plays out too haha

Yeah I like where you are going with this too. It's risky in a number of ways, but I think it takes risk to win this game. I think you are probably right with the trades you made, certainly the Lawrie one, and I guess Bird is the best of the rest of the money makers.

For what its worth, I applied the price projection analysis to your team (that I did with my own) as I suspected the trade off of your strategy (which I deem to be more points vs cash generation) might be that you haven't got the same cash generation as I do, and it turned out it's actually pretty close. Where I project I need to make roughly $2m you need to make ~$2.2m. So there's a bit of a difference there but perhaps not as much as I suspected it might be. Either way, it doesn't hurt to be cognisant of that as you'll need to be pretty pro-active chasing the cash IMO.

Starting team for round 2

Cook is the captain choice, won't be playing roulette this year
Sivo get's another chance at WFB over Kahu as they are playing the dogs, no Jennings and was unlucky not to score better in his first game. More of a boom/bust player than Kahu
Keighran over Brown for the goal kicking/km and in a firing Warriors side
Lawrie over Host for the higher ceiling/potential
Nikora over Bird for 2rf scores being more stable

Cook (C)
Tolman Lawrie
Arrow Murray Garner
Morgan Keighran
Capewell Nikora
Burns Ravalawa Sivo

Smith Friend McCullough Mahoney

Kahu Brown Host Bird

I like your approach this year, looks like it's working out so far

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Yeah I like where you are going with this too. It's risky in a number of ways, but I think it takes risk to win this game. I think you are probably right with the trades you made, certainly the Lawrie one, and I guess Bird is the best of the rest of the money makers.

For what its worth, I applied the price projection analysis to your team (that I did with my own) as I suspected the trade off of your strategy (which I deem to be more points vs cash generation) might be that you haven't got the same cash generation as I do, and it turned out it's actually pretty close. Where I project I need to make roughly $2m you need to make ~$2.2m. So there's a bit of a difference there but perhaps not as much as I suspected it might be. Either way, it doesn't hurt to be cognisant of that as you'll need to be pretty pro-active chasing the cash IMO.

Thanks for having a look at price projection mate.
It's not easy by all means trying to get that balance of points vs cash generations balance right.

Will try get my timing right and be in a good position to get in some fallen guns like Crichton over the next few weeks(which should hopefully result in less cash being needed as well)

Because of this I won't be chasing alot of these high priced guns straight away or tearing my team apart just because they are coming off big scores (unless they fill a role in the team)
Even this week I looked at Sivo/Ravalawa at starting WFB and wondered should I have traded in a WFB instead of say Lawrie but this is short term thinking though may have to look at soon

Just need to hold fast for now and trust the process.
Cheers

@Boozecluez

Good to see you still doing this Boozey. Great concept mate.
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Simon Templar wrote:@Boozecluez

Good to see you still doing this Boozey. Great concept mate.
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Thanks ST, good to see you around again this year

Chewie wrote:I like your approach this year, looks like it's working out so far

Thanks Chewie, the Friend injury was a bit of a curve ball this week but have plenty of hooker cover haha
Hope he is back soon, alot of coin to ride on the pine but will hold with Bird doing a great job filling in for him

Pass mark from my team for the second week.
The hookers doing their job and providing the stable scores while a few players carried the load to make up for the misses, so can't complain there.

Friend out was a bit of a curve ball but had the bench setup well so Bird was my 18th man.
Opted for Keighran as didn't want to be chopping and changing teams each week,but missed out on Browns score.
Will sit down and work out what's my best 17 next week.

The WFB fijians are breaking even for the second week as a combo but that is a spot I can start to look at with hopefully some new cashies appearing or perhaps looking at some midrange players.

Going to be hard not playing Bird now in starting CTR's and Capewell is awkwardly priced so perhaps this may be a nice swap with CNK (Who I was close to starting with).
That is probably a straight up 30pt team upgrade there, while Friends injury needs to be monitored.
Will see what TLT offers up

Typical Garrick and Napa had good scores the minute you trade them out but Lawrie/Bird in hindsight were both upgrades still.

Anyways have jumped some places and in a week that had lots of injuries and poor scores, have dodged some bullets and in a good position to tackle next week

Will digest over the next 2 days and see what happens at 4pm Tuesday

Doing well mate, have decided to live 2019 vicariously through your team.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Doing well mate, have decided to live 2019 vicariously through your team.

Thanks mate, will try and keep it exciting for you so strap in and enjoy the rollercoaster

A question to anyone out there who wants to help or contribute
Who makes more in a few weeks or who is the better trade in .....Napa v Asiata ?

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Napa has a head start now with last weeks 62pt try game, BE of 0 and costs 403k
3 week avg (35 =+99k) (40 = +125k) (45 =+152k)
Minutes have been trending up and played 52mins last week
Realistic average 35-40 from here if he plays that (Last year when playing 50mins+ averaged 36pts)

= Relies on big plays, needs to cut errors and miss tackles out. Decent job security and should see good minutes but there is still the 'Pay' factor

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Asiata has a BE of 16, and a solid average of 39 from 40 mins - costs 427k
As opposed to Napa who is more boom bust, Asiata has a high work rate and more base stats
Though relies more  on minutes so this effects his potential
With Taumalolo out though and a bench reshuffle, can he see 50mins?

Potential if he gets more minutes but if he doesn't then might not earn cash fast enough to be worth a trade in and out. More likely to average 40 than Napa though through more stable 'base stats'


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Not looking at spending anymore than that, already own Lawrie/Host too and must be FRF
Don't want massive risk in job security either so bench cows are too risky for me, or at least ones with ????? on minutes.

So what I am looking to do is risky but potentially trade Tolman.
One of these players fills the FRF role for a few weeks minimum and they may score slightly less than Tolman, but their price rises will be handy in a few weeks, the 200k it frees up now is awesome for upgrades at WFB (those points more than offset what Tolman scores extra)
This is not without risk as Tolman could still score 50+ or one of these cows could score low 20's again, but now I have seen 2 weeks of his minutes then I can't be relying on him getting more.
Yes Pay may give him 5 or even 10 more minutes, or possibly get lucky with an injury but I would rather trade now than rely on luck (Luck isn't calculated)

Based on my team it is one of Tolman,Capewell or McCullough out.
Capewell has a lower BE,plays 80mins and can bang out a big score so don't want to sell him.
McCullough is performing slightly above average but he can score 60+ on his day, has stable scores and offsets alot of the risk I take elsewhere.

At this stage I am leaning to Tolman to Napa (356k leftover)

Second trade potentially Kahu to CNK (233k left after this second trade)
CNK is value for money, starting fullback and went into depth why he was a good option even from RD1
Didn't have the $$ to start with but definitely still value in him coming in now, also good enough until a luxury trade of say TTrbo can be done later

I don't look at last week being good/bad/stupid as owning Napa and trading him out.
This trade is without emotion and on paper is best looked at as a fresh new week regardless of past trades.
233k in a couple weeks potentially turns Capewell into Tedesco which makes alot of this worth it.

Thoughts? Am i missing anyone? Should I just sit tight and see what happens?

It's weird but I see Napa as more consistent (higher minutes in a clearly defined role). I know the errors/MT will affect his score as well but he seems consistent in my head. Whereas Asiata as a strong impact ball playing forward could be better but I'm putting him as more variable. I'll freely admit I'm not sure what his role will be so theres probably that playing into it as well. Also Napa's lower BE this week lends more short term certainty in getting big price rises.

I'd go Napa.

I like holding Macca. Like you said he offsets risk elsewhere in your team. Also when you are ready he's an easy straight trade to another positional gun if you ever want to go that way.
The Capewell logic is fine as well but have you considered a points on the board arguement of Capewell to CNK (Bird to CTR)? Doesn't free up cash but means money is in your starting squad?


P.s. I'm trading Tolman out this week. It's a short term hit to points but the cash potential isn't super high. Overall I like your moves.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:It's weird but I see Napa as more consistent (higher minutes in a clearly defined role). I know the errors/MT will affect his score as well but he seems consistent in my head. Whereas Asiata as a strong impact ball playing forward could be better but I'm putting him as more variable. I'll freely admit I'm not sure what his role will be so theres probably that playing into it as well. Also Napa's lower BE this week lends more short term certainty in getting big price rises.

I'd go Napa.

I like holding Macca. Like you said he offsets risk elsewhere in your team. Also when you are ready he's an easy straight trade to another positional gun if you ever want to go that way.
The Capewell logic is fine as well but have you considered a points on the board arguement of Capewell to CNK (Bird to CTR)? Doesn't free up cash but means money is in your starting squad?


P.s. I'm trading Tolman out this week. It's a short term hit to points but the cash potential isn't super high. Overall I like your moves.

Yeah on merit Napa seems the best option but really needed to explore all avenues.

Thing is this, I can go Kahu to CNK in one trade this week leaving Tolman there but would have 0 bank.
But then I was going over my team and going through some scenarios. If in 2 weeks Tolman is scoring 40's and I need cash for upgrades , who do I downgrade to?
Sub 500k FRF it is a wasteland so would be an upgrade to Fifita? Big jump and where do I find that cash without losing out elsewhere?

Same thing with WFB, unless a gun cow pops up then it is a similar scenario, sub 500k it is bad but worst case you can gamble on a back.
Napa gives me the cash now, cash in the future and even a chance of scoring close to Tolman if he has a big game. Next week he jumps 50k and it's not worth it then.
To be fair I didn't even lose on the Lawrie trade, yes it could have been Tolman but I wasn't to know of his reduced role week 2.

So if I do a move it needs to be now, and my team with lots of cows needs some options and kitty incase I need to jump on someone in a few weeks.
Crichton/Ponga/Teddy/Edwards/ etc are all options.

Secondly looking over Capewell, I backed him to score mid 40's and he did that week one. Week 2 he got moved to the wing but the thing I like is he plays 80mins as a forward
Simply being out there you make tackles, hit up's etc. He can put out a big score too.
He will be my 18th man as will go Bird this week in the centres, but will be the guy I use to trade or plug FRF/WFB in a few weeks

So purely from a cash potential it's Tolman + Kahu (Ctr) vs Napa + Capewell
I don't even think that is a fair fight, both options give CNK at WFB  too

Nice team and strategy. That bench really anchors your team. I'm about double your rank with plenty of problems to fix lol I'm trading Napa in. He's cheap and now has a weaker bench likely meaning bigger minutes. Here's hoping anyway. I'm also bringing CNK in to stabilise my WFB. Your Hooker strategy gives you the flexibility to address your other issues, very good.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Nice team and strategy. That bench really anchors your team. I'm about double your rank with plenty of problems to fix lol I'm trading Napa in. He's cheap and now has a weaker bench likely meaning bigger minutes. Here's hoping anyway. I'm also bringing CNK in to stabilise my WFB. Your Hooker strategy gives you the flexibility to address your other issues, very good.

Thanks Rapture
Yeah that is the main thing in that it allows calculated gambles elsewhere and really does stretch the Gun/Cow method to the max.

If I was to say one slight negative is I don't get the luxury of playing cheap cows or mid rangers on the 13-17 bench regardless of position.
So I am more defined in where I play my cheapies, ie my starting 13 which is different to most. Points are points though regardless of where they are in the 17 though.
I have a few less options in choosing players too, the players have to either generate cash or improve my scores or they aren't an option.
But this also helps me too in ways as this helps avoid sideways trades.

For example I miss out on all the other midrange 2rf as I have no room for them and won't bench them either.
Same with the cheap halves that are around, no room at the moment for them

But it's all new and experimentation so will see how we go, but better to try and win this thing than go out wondering.

Boozecluez wrote:

Yeah on merit Napa seems the best option but really needed to explore all avenues.

Thing is this, I can go Kahu to CNK in one trade this week leaving Tolman there but would have 0 bank.
But then I was going over my team and going through some scenarios. If in 2 weeks Tolman is scoring 40's and I need cash for upgrades , who do I downgrade to?
Sub 500k FRF it is a wasteland so would be an upgrade to Fifita? Big jump and where do I find that cash without losing out elsewhere?

Same thing with WFB, unless a gun cow pops up then it is a similar scenario, sub 500k it is bad but worst case you can gamble on a back.
Napa gives me the cash now, cash in the future and even a chance of scoring close to Tolman if he has a big game. Next week he jumps 50k and it's not worth it then.
To be fair I didn't even lose on the Lawrie trade, yes it could have been Tolman but I wasn't to know of his reduced role week 2.

So if I do a move it needs to be now, and my team with lots of cows needs some options and kitty incase I need to jump on someone in a few weeks.
Crichton/Ponga/Teddy/Edwards/ etc are all options.

Secondly looking over Capewell, I backed him to score mid 40's and he did that week one. Week 2 he got moved to the wing but the thing I like is he plays 80mins as a forward
Simply being out there you make tackles, hit up's etc. He can put out a big score too.
He will be my 18th man as will go Bird this week in the centres, but will be the guy I use to trade or plug FRF/WFB in a few weeks

So purely from a cash potential it's Tolman + Kahu (Ctr) vs Napa + Capewell
I don't even think that is a fair fight, both options give CNK at WFB  too

I don't think cash generation was ever the point I was worried about in your trades it was just the risk of leaving too many points on the table chasing cash. Honestly was probably a minor point/nitpick that you have comprehensively covered above. The risk is definitely worth it so you don't stall on cash makers with your heavy bench setup.

I honestly cant think of a better trade than what you have suggested.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

I don't think cash generation was ever the point I was worried about in your trades it was just the risk of leaving too many points on the table chasing cash. Honestly was probably a minor point/nitpick that you have comprehensively covered above. The risk is definitely worth it so you don't stall on cash makers with your heavy bench setup.

I honestly cant think of a better trade than what you have suggested.

Thanks again for your thoughts, good to soundboard ideas before pulling the trigger sometimes.
Regarding points let’s look at hypothetical’s . Trade out being generous, and trade ins worst case

Kahu (ctr) 30-40
Tolman 45- 55
75-95pts

CNK 35-45
Napa 30-40
65-85pts

So at worst 10pts difference, but kahu I see averaging 25 at ctr and Tolman 45 unless things change

So maths backs the trade, will the fantasy gods?