R17 Trades

The only real way to get Cook this week is to trade Ponga (or play short 1 WFB)

1st option
Xerri - Ttrbo - we are short $40k of funds for Watson to Cook so would either need the gap to close, or make 2 trades next week to get Cook in (or trade Ponga out)
We can wait to see how Watson scores before making a decision, if so we have to make a decision on what an acceptable score from Watson is. The more cash he loses, the harder it will be to grab Cook.
We also need Cook to play (ideally low minutes) - if he gets rested completely, then we are no chance of getting him in next week in a single trade. Watson's BE is around 50 (mtb says 48, I say 51) so we want Watson to get 40+ and then hope Cook has a quiet one.
We'll probably have a snap poll after the game on Friday to confirm choice after seeing Watson's score.


2nd option
Xerri - Burns - Then we can freely trade Watson to Cook next week

3rd option
Jack Wighton - doesn't guarantee us Watson - Cook next week, but its much likely we can afford it than if we go TTrbo ($15k spare before Watson/Cook change prices this week)


We can get Cook in this week if we want to ditch Ponga, which I wouldn't recommend, as Ponga is a top 3 WFB when fit, and gives us half coverage (we can potentially use Walters + Ponga as a loop enabler around SJ if his form becomes an issue)


Hope I've covered the main options

Does anyone have the rough numbers on what Watson makes or loses given those point ranges and conversely what Cook would make/lose given some realistic point ranges?

Just trying to get my head around how likely we can make that $40k gap up...

Watson
30 will drop around $20-$25k
40 will drop $10-15k
50 will stay about the same

Cook
Scores 30 (what he got last time post origin) drops over $50k
Scores 50 drops $35k
Scores 70 drops $10-15k

These are my calcs. mtb's site might have some differences

We really need Brittain on the bench for Cook to drop the required amount of cash, and Watson to put up a reasonable score.

Its going to be very tight but I think worth the punt.

FWIW I'm banking on Cook dropping at least 20k for my trade next week.

Verbal Kint wrote:Its going to be very tight but I think worth the punt.

FWIW I'm banking on Cook dropping at least 20k for my trade next week.

I think its best to wait and see what Watson does. Based on those projections we'll have a pretty good idea if its worth the punt post the Newcastle game but prior to the Souths/Manly game.

For the (3) people to date saying Xerri to Trbo regardless of what Watson scores, what is the plan if he scores 20 or so and therefore makes Watson to Cook unaffordable?

I'd be pretty keen to see some ideas floated before we go down that track...

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I think its best to wait and see what Watson does. Based on those projections we'll have a pretty good idea if its worth the punt post the Newcastle game but prior to the Souths/Manly game.

Yep

I think It's going to be one of those last minute decisions based off Watsons score. Hopefully we get something concrete on Cook tomorrow.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:For the (3) people to date saying Xerri to Trbo regardless of what Watson scores, what is the plan if he scores 20 or so and therefore makes Watson to Cook unaffordable?

I'd be pretty keen to see some ideas floated before we go down that track...

I haven't voted yet, but I calc'd we were 33k short this week rather than 40k.

Watson 632k + Xerri 495k + bank 419k = 1,546,000
Cook 826k + Tom Trb 753k = 1,579,000

From the other thread. Pretty sure that's correct, unless I fucked the bank up?

If going Xerri to Tom this week, we're left with 161k in the bank.

If Watson really duds it up and drops to 600k and Cook hits an 80 or so for 830k, we'll need an additional 69k to make the Watson to Cook trade.

Brittain at 284k could be cashed out to some nupty 212k to give us another 72k to cover that scenario. Leaves us with only 1 trade though.

If some cataclysmic disaster happens, we could always cash out Staggs at 348k, though we'd lose our CTR cover with Xerri also gone.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:For the (3) people to date saying Xerri to Trbo regardless of what Watson scores, what is the plan if he scores 20 or so and therefore makes Watson to Cook unaffordable?

I'd be pretty keen to see some ideas floated before we go down that track...

I'd say we are getting Cook next week, it's just a question of 1 or 2 trades to get there.

I think this also shows the dangers of a 2-3 week trade plan.
Last week everyone was keen on Trbo this week, knowing that money would be tight. Then as soon as money is tight, the 3 week plan goes out the window and we come up with something new.

If we trade Burns in, where does he play after this week?

He can cover Ponga for injury, but at full strength does he make our 17? Maybe CTR over Nikora, or as a loop option.
But not sure he is best use of a trade

Milchy wrote:

I'd say we are getting Cook next week, it's just a question of 1 or 2 trades to get there.

I think this also shows the dangers of a 2-3 week trade plan.
Last week everyone was keen on Trbo this week, knowing that money would be tight. Then as soon as money is tight, the 3 week plan goes out the window and we come up with something new.

I think we're still pretty much sticking to the plan. Burns was mentioned last week too and he's a pretty good back-up plan for Tom if cash and WFBs were an issue.

A lot depended on how Xerri and Watson performed last week. We were hoping for a little better, but Brittain was mentioned as a last ditch effort to get the cash too.

Milchy wrote:
If we trade Burns in, where does he play after this week?

He can cover Ponga for injury, but at full strength does he make our 17? Maybe CTR over Nikora, or as a loop option.
But not sure he is best use of a trade

I voted for Tom regardless of score. Only 1 vote for Burns so far, so not sure it'll be an issue.

I expect Burns to average low 40s, Tom close to 50. So for this week we're roughly 10 points worse off if we get Burns, but will have 2 trades and a decent bank after getting Cook next week. Beyond that he drops out of the 17, but provides a combo of CTR/WFB and HLF cover via Ponga if we cop a couple of short-term injuries and don't want to trade.

vs.

Going for Tom, we're 10 points better off this week, but might have to burn another trade to get Cook, leaving us with only 1 and a meager bank. Beyond this week, there's still a question of what our best 17 is? If we play 4 WFBs (Ponga on the bench), we'd be leaving out AFB or SST.. but we could instead leave out RTS, Brooks or SJ by starting Ponga.. I guess the loop can come into play then, but I've never paid much attention to it.

Milchy wrote:

I'd say we are getting Cook next week, it's just a question of 1 or 2 trades to get there.

I think this also shows the dangers of a 2-3 week trade plan.
Last week everyone was keen on Trbo this week, knowing that money would be tight. Then as soon as money is tight, the 3 week plan goes out the window and we come up with something new.

Nah, disagree. This is the nature of fantasy. U can only plan with the info you have at that point in time, once new info comes to hand you have to take that into account.... I absoloutely do this with my own team in fantasy, no matter what the sport.

In terms of where we are at it seems the majority are still on the same plan with Trbo the preferred option. Thats what I voted for. However I do think we have to consider what the alternative is to last weeks plan if Watson goes poorly and its clear we wont be able to afford Cook on one trade.... If thats the case, which way do we PIVOT? Agree that Cook has to be the anchor, so is it 3 trades with Trbo? and if so who's the third? or is it 2 trades with an alternative to Trbo?

No harm in coming up with contingencies, but as stated, we may as well wait till Watson scores and then we will know the lay of the land.

WT Winfield wrote:

I haven't voted yet, but I calc'd we were 33k short this week rather than 40k.

Watson 632k + Xerri 495k + bank 419k = 1,546,000
Cook 826k + Tom Trb 753k = 1,579,000

From the other thread. Pretty sure that's correct, unless I fucked the bank up?

If going Xerri to Tom this week, we're left with 161k in the bank.

If Watson really duds it up and drops to 600k and Cook hits an 80 or so for 830k, we'll need an additional 69k to make the Watson to Cook trade.

Brittain at 284k could be cashed out to some nupty 212k to give us another 72k to cover that scenario. Leaves us with only 1 trade though.

If some cataclysmic disaster happens, we could always cash out Staggs at 348k, though we'd lose our CTR cover with Xerri also gone.

Sorry man, havent done the math. Lets hope you are right

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Sorry man, havent done the math. Lets hope you are right

Haven't seen the team posted this week other than my attempt at figuring it out in the other thread.

Last week we had $216k before trades.

Milford 743k
Sivo 497k
Havili 425k

traded to

Brooks 687k
SJ 563k
Walters 212k

Yeah, 419k bank this week.


Xerri 495k to Tom 753k leaves us with 161k and 3 trades.

Watson 632k, BE 48
to
Cook 826k, BE 77

Costs 194k on current prices, 33k short.

Rough guess I'd say Watson loses 10-15k. Cook maybe about the same, especially if Brittain is on the bench. Cook could get rested and lose 0.

Could get lucky though and Watson actually makes 10k tops with a try and 60 and Cook drops 20-25k with a 50 odd.

Seems very likely to me that we're gonna have to cash Brittain out if we get Tom this week and be left with 1 trade and not much bank.

Can see the merits in getting Burns instead of Tom, and some votes have come in for Burns, so if that's the way it goes, I'm cool with that too.

The merits I see to getting Burns btw is:

Xerri 495k to Burns 443k

Gives us a 468k bank for next week.

If Watson dishes up another sub 20 score at FB, he's gonna drop to around 600k.

Cook could be anywhere from 800k to 840k depending on this week.

We'll still have over 200k in the bank and 2 trades after getting Cook for the run home if opting for Burns over Tom.

vs. very likely only 1 trade and not much bank if getting Tom.

Tom might be worth ~10 points more than Burns this week with Teddy/Ponga out, but that extra cash and trades could help us make that back later.


EDIT: Cook could end up lower than 800k if he puts up something similar to the last time he backed up, scoring 29 in 69 mins with Brittain relieving him. Maybe as low as 785k.
I think he and Murray had the flu or something too that week?

Sounds like Tom could be rested, so we might be left with Burns by default.

Luckily they're against each other 3rd game in. Xerri doesn't lock until the 5th game.

Not the worst situation if it happens, as we can easily get Cook next week for Watson and still have 2 trades and a large bank for the run home to cover gun injuries and price drops.

WT Winfield wrote:Sounds like Tom could be rested, so we might be left with Burns by default.

Luckily they're against each other 3rd game in. Xerri doesn't lock until the 5th game.

Not the worst situation if it happens, as we can easily get Cook next week for Watson and still have 2 trades and a large bank for the run home to cover gun injuries and price drops.

With TTurbo being cut in 19 man squad update and Brittain cut for Souths (positive impact on Cook) are you just going to go with Xerri-Burns as next highest voted option or do another separate poll

We could throw another poll up I guess if all the Tom voters would rather switch to Wighton or someone else.

Burns will be the first player to lock in, just under 24 hours until then.

Will leave that up to Milchy and RnT though as I've only just blown in the last couple of weeks with no NRLF team of my own to manage

As a Tom voter, I'd switch to Burns.

(and even think about moving Watson on for Cook this week and play a man down, but that could backfire spectacularly).