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    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 75

    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:29 am

    wolfking wrote:

    This is an interesting observation mate.  Yeah, don't see Capewell coming on in the middle unless he has done it before?
    Annoying me, because B.Brailey normally on the pine

    He’s started the last 4 matches, playing 80mins each time (3 backrow, once centre)

    The start before that, he was interchange on a very similar bench makeup: Uele, Woods, Bukuya, Capewell

    - Capewell only got 14mins and it was Brailey he spelled!
    - Nikora played 80mins, but so did Graham in a better performance


    I think my main concern is that I can’t see him getting so few minutes coming off a good game and someone has to come off. Completely over-thinking it, but I do have alternatives and no way to loop nikora without committing to one of them (ie Burns and staggs)
    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:51 am

    SI wrote:

    Even that 3 game sample is all over the shop with where his points came from.  Gut feel personally is he will average around 50 going forward.

    Just on this, has anyone scored a 99 or more WITHOUT a try?  Can anyone remember if Campese scored a Try in that tonne back in the day?  He is the onluy bloke I can't actually remember scoring in a massive score.
    Thank you
    Here are Milford's points breakdown from his 3 games at fullback vs Tedesco and Ponga
    2.67 Tries (Tedesco 5.33 tries) (Ponga 5.82 tries)

    5 try assists (Tedesco 2 try assists) (Ponga 3.18 try assists)

    1.33 line breaks (Tedesco 4.27 line breaks) (Ponga 4.26 line breaks)

    1.33 LBA (Tedesco 0.8 LBA) (Ponga 1.27 line break assists)

    3 tackles (Tedesco 3.93 tackles) (Ponga 4.91 tackles)

    21 tackle breaks (Tedesco 21 tackle breaks) (Ponga 16.91 tackle breaks)

    -2.67 missed tackles (Tedesco -2.67 missed tackles) (Ponga -3.64 missed tackles)

    3.33 offloads (Tedesco 2 offloads) (Ponga 1.09 offloads)

    -0.67 error (Tedesco -2.67 errors) (Ponga -1.82 errors)

    15.67 Run Metres (Tedesco 19.33 running metres) (Ponga 14.73 run metres)

    16 kick metres (Ponga 3.18 kick metres)

    3 kick defused (Tedesco 2.2 kick defused) (Ponga 3.18 kick defused)

    1.33 FDO (Ponga 1.09 FDO)

    Ponga 0.45 Try save, -0.73 penalty conceded, -0.45 sin bin, 7.45 goals
    Tedesco 1.33 try save

    Let's say WORST CASE SCENARIO Milford gets the following stats
    2.67 tries
    2 try assists
    1.33 line breaks
    0.8 LBA
    3 tackles
    16.91 tackle breaks
    -3.64 missed tackles
    1.09 offloads
    -2.67 errors
    14.73 run metres
    16 kick metres
    2.2 kicks defused
    1.33 FDO
    -0.73 penalty conceded
    -0.45 sin bin
    This gives him a score of 54.57


    Last edited by Ben Marlin on Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:09 am; edited 1 time in total
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:04 am

    wolfking wrote:

    This is an interesting observation mate.  Yeah, don't see Capewell coming on in the middle unless he has done it before?

    Wouldn't be surprised to see some late backline shuffles chucking Capewell in around CTR somewhere... or Graham not playing 80.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:06 am

    Ben Marlin wrote:
    Thank you
    Here are Milford's points breakdown from his 3 games at fullback vs Tedesco and Ponga
    2.67 Tries (Tedesco 5.33 tries) (Ponga 5.82 tries)

    5 try assists (Tedesco 2 try assists) (Ponga 3.18 try assists)

    1.33 line breaks (Tedesco 4.27 line breaks) (Ponga 4.26 line breaks)

    1.33 LBA (Tedesco 0.8 LBA) (Ponga 1.27 line break assists)

    3 tackles (Tedesco 3.93 tackles) (Ponga 4.91 tackles)

    21 tackle breaks (Tedesco 21 tackle breaks) (Ponga 16.91 tackle breaks)

    -2.67 missed tackles (Tedesco -2.67 missed tackles) (Ponga -3.64 missed tackles)

    3.33 offloads (Tedesco 2 offloads) (Ponga 1.09 offloads)

    -0.67 error (Tedesco -2.67 errors) (Ponga -1.82 errors)

    15.67 Run Metres (Tedesco 19.33 running metres) (Ponga 14.73 run metres)

    16 kick metres (Ponga 3.18 kick metres)

    3 kick defused (Tedesco 2.2 kick defused) (Ponga 3.18 kick defused)

    1.33 FDO (Ponga 1.09 FDO)

    Ponga 0.45 Try save, -0.73 penalty conceded, -0.45 sin bin, 7.45 goals
    Tedesco 1.33 try save

    Let's say WORST CASE SCENARIO Milford gets the following stats
    2.67 tries
    2 try assists
    1.33 line breaks
    0.8 LBA
    3 tackles
    16.91 tackle breaks
    -3.64 missed tackles
    1.09 offloads
    -2.67 offloads
    14.73 run metres
    16 kick metres
    2.2 kicks defused
    1.33 FDO
    -0.73 penalty conceded
    -0.45 sin bin
    This gives him a score of 54.57




    Whats with the negative offloads?
    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:09 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Whats with the negative offloads?
    Sorry
    Meant to be errors
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:17 am

    Milford has done less kicking with every game at fullback.
    Was last week a one off, and he'll kick a lot again this week, or is Turpin now the kicker.

    Your 'worst case' point has Milford scoring 2 tries over the next 6 weeks. That isn't 'worst case'.
    You have to make some assumptions and hope a bit when picking a player, but some people set themselves up for disappointment with unrealistic assumptions


    Last edited by Milchy on Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:44 am; edited 1 time in total
    EJ24
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    Post by EJ24 Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:22 am

    Hey fellas, got 5 trades and am looking to make some moves to crack the top 100

    Smith
    Fifi Haas
    Lolo Murray Taupau
    Sj DCE
    Nikora Bateman
    Ponga Rts Teddy

    Cook Mcinnis Fainu Latrell

    CNK To'o Walters Carrigan
    17k itb

    Thinking of cashing out To'o to a 212k looper and upgrading CNK to a gun. Who should I bring in ? Watson, Farah or Milford maybe?


    Last edited by EJ24 on Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:23 am; edited 1 time in total
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:23 am

    SI wrote:

    VSDT was at least 150,000 players in 2013 before the NRL went to FanHub.  They haven't done themselves any favours with the scoring and the interface.  Although can excuse the interface as they don't have the personnel and income now.

    The interface is exactly the same as Supercoach, which kills fantasy in terms of player numbers.

    It's not the reason people don't play it. It just has absolutely zero promotion, and most casuals wouldn't even know it existed. Every one knows about supercoach though.

    I also think the scoring system plays little part in which game to play for the majority of players. Only supernerds like us care that much, and most of us play both anyway, even if one gets priority
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:28 am

    Milchy wrote:
    Milford has done less kicking with every have at fullback.
    Was last week a one off, and he'll kick a lot again this week, or is Turpin now the kicker.

    Your 'worst case' point has Milford scoring 2 tries over the next 6 weeks. That isn't 'worst case'.
    You have to make some assumptions and hope a bit when picking a player, but some people set themselves up for disappointment with unrealistic assumptions



    I guess what he has done is taken the worst stat of the three players (Ponga, Teddy, Milford) and used that as "worst case". I think it would be better to work off stats Milford is known for getting, plus typical base stats such as TB's, KM's, Run Metres, TCK's then just hope the TA's, Tries, LB's, LBA's come on top of that. This is why we generally try to pick players off their base stats to eliminate the expectations of tries and other attacking stats.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:34 am

    I reckon Milford kicks a little bit more this week, assuming we are pinned on our 40m line on 5th a bit more often.

    Against Titans our forwards dominated through the middle and most of our 5th tackle kciks were in the Titans half.
    hymenbustas
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    Post by hymenbustas Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:37 am

    @my tv broke

    You planning to bring Ponga in soon?
    avatar
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    Post by Guest Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:40 am

    Ben Marlin wrote:
    Thank you
    Here are Milford's points breakdown from his 3 games at fullback vs Tedesco and Ponga
    2.67 Tries (Tedesco 5.33 tries) (Ponga 5.82 tries)

    5 try assists (Tedesco 2 try assists) (Ponga 3.18 try assists)

    1.33 line breaks (Tedesco 4.27 line breaks) (Ponga 4.26 line breaks)

    1.33 LBA (Tedesco 0.8 LBA) (Ponga 1.27 line break assists)

    3 tackles (Tedesco 3.93 tackles) (Ponga 4.91 tackles)

    21 tackle breaks (Tedesco 21 tackle breaks) (Ponga 16.91 tackle breaks)

    -2.67 missed tackles (Tedesco -2.67 missed tackles) (Ponga -3.64 missed tackles)

    3.33 offloads (Tedesco 2 offloads) (Ponga 1.09 offloads)

    -0.67 error (Tedesco -2.67 errors) (Ponga -1.82 errors)

    15.67 Run Metres (Tedesco 19.33 running metres) (Ponga 14.73 run metres)

    16 kick metres (Ponga 3.18 kick metres)

    3 kick defused (Tedesco 2.2 kick defused) (Ponga 3.18 kick defused)

    1.33 FDO (Ponga 1.09 FDO)

    Ponga 0.45 Try save, -0.73 penalty conceded, -0.45 sin bin, 7.45 goals
    Tedesco 1.33 try save

    Let's say WORST CASE SCENARIO Milford gets the following stats
    2.67 tries
    2 try assists
    1.33 line breaks
    0.8 LBA
    3 tackles
    16.91 tackle breaks
    -3.64 missed tackles
    1.09 offloads
    -2.67 errors
    14.73 run metres
    16 kick metres
    2.2 kicks defused
    1.33 FDO
    -0.73 penalty conceded
    -0.45 sin bin
    This gives him a score of 54.57

    If he doesn’t go missing, which he can.
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:56 am

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Have the horrid task of trying to decide between Nikora/Xerri/Burns for my two CTR spots.

    Do ya double down on Sharks and hope for a big win?

    Can you loop through a red-dot centre?
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:57 am

    Rabbit wrote:

    If he doesn’t go missing, which he can.

    I'm wythe you on that.
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:05 am

    hymenbustas wrote:@my tv broke

    You planning to bring Ponga in soon?

    Yes and no. Laughing

    The question is, who for. I think the obvious answer is RTS, but he's been scoring well.

    Wow, Warriors about to go on a run of tough games though.. Raiders, Manly, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Raiders. hmm, now might be the time.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:14 am

    Rabbits have Sharks, Storm, Broncos, Bulldogs, Warriors, Roosters... Not sure Surgess might be the perfect player to end on.
    Sharks have Rabbits, Panthers, Dragons, Warriors, Raiders, Tigers... Graham could have some fun in some of those games if he stays fit.
    Tigers have Cows, Bulldogs, Manly, Knights, Dragons, Sharks... Garner could have a pretty easy run through some of those games.

    The decision still looms!!!
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:20 am

    Tevaga owners

    Michael Burgess
    @mikeburgess99
    More tough news for @NZWarriors as Tohu Harris could miss rest of season, as comeback extended from foot surgery.

    "There’s a possibility. Need to see how he pulls up at the back end of round 22. He goes back to see a specialist around that time." - Stephen Kearney.
    Krump
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    Post by Krump Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:26 am

    Do we think Crichton keeps his starting spot now? SST needs to GTFO but I've only got 603k to spend.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:29 am

    Krump wrote:Do we think Crichton keeps his starting spot now? SST needs to GTFO but I've only got 603k to spend.

    Cordner back next week I assume and the Black Widow has held that 2RF spot for most the year with a full team.
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    Post by Krump Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:44 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Cordner back next week I assume and the Black Widow has held that 2RF spot for most the year with a full team.
    Yeah I'm clutching at straws lol!

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