NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 29 - Too many cows!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vyqknt4_EtQ

Some Paix highlights from 2019 - last year he played all over the shop for Redcliffe (Redcliffe typically don't move their own players around to accommodate Broncos players in their preferred positions, its also why Turpin played off the bench a lot for them). Highlights don't tell the full story with any player but he seems to have good awareness/vision, should suit these new rules out of dummy half. Doesnt get much tougher than the Roosters tonight though.

I guess one thing to keep in mind with Paix is that the Broncos are confident enough in him to make him 2nd string hooker by releasing macca, and have been working on him as a hooker since last year.

Mentioned earlier, but he's been in our system a long time now.

I think I've talked myself into it.... ?

Jumping Marlin wrote:

RandomSil wrote:Any new fantasy questions for today?

Why the Mofo love?  He averages around .88ppm which drops to .82ppm in games over 50mins.
If he plays 55mins that’s 47-48ppg.  
Underpriced yes, but not a gun?

Does one 75pt game tell us something has changed?

It is heavily influenced by multiple factors and his stats don't necessarily back it up. I don't think it has anything to do with him being an out and out gun but the 75 points is massive. Averages 49 points while playing between 50 - 60 minutes, had some good wraps on him heading to the season but then was injured Round 1 so no one grabbed him. One of the only Titans to have a crack last week and with the new rules got through a mountain of work. He is more of a punt than with solid stats to back it up, but the 75 points have hyped him up again.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Next question for the group..

Smarter play out of:
- aubbs to Crichton and Williame in EMG

- aubbs to paix, play Williame and wait for the right time to get a gun centre cus centres sucks and who wants to burn another trade there

Is the 7 extra points you may get for playing Crichton over Williame worth it?

Loomer wrote:Current 2 trades for tonight Aubo+Brailey to Teddy+Paix

Easiest way to get Teddy in and reassess other trades tomorrow

Looks sweet and man am I going to be on edge tonight watching Broncs v Roosters without Tedesco.

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Why the Mofo love?  He averages around .88ppm which drops to .82ppm in games over 50mins.
If he plays 55mins that’s 47-48ppg.  
Underpriced yes, but not a gun?

Does one 75pt game tell us something has changed?

Great question. I rewatched the titans game to try to understand it.

He played 37 minutes first half. Looking at the titans bench, I expect him to play the full first half this week, and 60+ minutes.

He never looked tired, just stepped up, tackled constantly, was never slacking off. In the last 5 minutes of the game he made a big tackle busting run, was still full of running.

Young player, ready to step up and not playing injured. If you look at guys like Lolo and Taupau and the jumps in performance they had as they matured in early 20s, that is what Mofo was looking like this season.

FalconSloth wrote:Clark probably has better scoring potential but lacks job security while Paix doesn’t seem to be able to score as well but has better job security. I’ve got no clue which way to go so can someone please convince me one way or the other.

Paix is slotted for a bench role for at least the next 6 or so weeks with a start this week. Clark if he shits the bed could be completely out of the side next week.

Welshy wrote:If I dump Taumalolo I’m looking at 2RF guns who have scored less than their usual seasonal average

Guys who are averaging well above already will ultimately scores less over remaining season to maintain their usual seasonal average. Taumalolo for example averaging 71, highly unlikely he maintains that so remaining games he’s going unders rest of the way

So I’m looking at guys like JTurbo/Murray. Both 55+ average players currently averaging under 50 after 3 rounds. To reach their usual seasonal average they are going to have to average over 55 from now until R20, I think that makes sense lol

It makes sense but it doesn't account for rule changes, positional changes and the fact that some players tend to be mixed bags each year. While Murray is a great shout now he is back in the 13, if he was still in the 2RF you wouldn't give him a second look. You are betting on former guns, to return back to gun status than looking at players that are playing like guns now.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Do middle players traditionally struggle against the storm? Looking for a reason to keep horse and wisdom on waiting a week to see how the dust settles with Murray or not

Outside backs struggle against the Storm, don't think middles do particularly.

On your other question, forget about H2H for now, it'll take care of itself.

1k short of Hoy in my keep Lolo plan damn it

mattnz wrote:
Great question. I rewatched the titans game to try to understand it.

He played 37 minutes first half. Looking at the titans bench, I expect him to play the full first half this week, and 60+ minutes.

He never looked tired, just stepped up, tackled constantly, was never slacking off. In the last 5 minutes of the game he made a big tackle busting run, was still full of running.

Young player, ready to step up and not playing injured. If you look at guys like Lolo and Taupau and the jumps in performance they had as they matured in early 20s, that is what Mofo was looking like this season.

pretty much this.

he's another keebra park graduate that is just waiting to 'emerge'. couple years time he will get all the media attention that the current big name props get.

obviously that doesnt always translate to fantasy but he has the game for it.

BCT05 wrote:

RandomSil wrote:Any new fantasy questions for today?

Who to start as my 17 out of Williame, Guler, Paix, Kennedy?

Can you loop any of them? I have a sneaky Paix (JTB ) loop set up. Otherwise the most consistent scorer from that bunch is Kennedy/Williame for about 30 points but a starting HOK should score that comfortably and I would roll the dice with Paix anyway as we saw last week what a rookie HOK can do with Randall making 72 points.

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Next question for the group..

Smarter play out of:
- aubbs to Crichton and Williame in EMG

- aubbs to paix, play Williame and wait for the right time to get a gun centre cus centres sucks and who wants to burn another trade there

I’m doing the second, does not guarantee it’s the smarter play though

I've added some of the common nicknames in the system so if you use the quick search and type "JTB" or "MOFO", the player will come up.

Loomer wrote:1k short of Hoy in my keep Lolo plan damn it

What are you expecting from Hoy off the bench? He looked like a solid player but also kicked 227km last week with no Pearce and played 90 minutes.

my tv broke wrote:I've added some of the common nicknames in the system so if you use the quick search and type "JTB" or "MOFO", the player will come up.

You even got the Aubbs with the double B. God damn I love you.

RandomSil wrote:

What are you expecting from Hoy off the bench? He looked like a solid player but also kicked 227km last week with no Pearce and played 90 minutes.

I think Pearce won't play this week

RandomSil wrote:

It makes sense but it doesn't account for rule changes, positional changes and the fact that some players tend to be mixed bags each year. While Murray is a great shout now he is back in the 13, if he was still in the 2RF you wouldn't give him a second look. You are betting on former guns, to return back to gun status than looking at players that are playing like guns now.

It’s a long season, only 3 rounds in, historical seasonal average for players in same position is gold especially over multiple years like the example used. Most the big scores are early season purple patches

With the Turpin news, I'll go Paix and have a look at Clark.

Watkins - Crichton
Shiba - Paix

I think I will sit and hold Tolo and give Brailey one more week. If I could get a Turbo for Brailey I would but I'm short.

I do have enough for Mofo and even Sironen. Any love for Sironen? Too inconsistent I guess.

RandomSil wrote:

You even got the Aubbs with the double B. God damn I love you.

Yeah but

rhinoceroo wrote:

Yeah but

Try it again