NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 40 - First

Loomer wrote:

In Teddy's last 17 games he's scored below 50 twice and in the 30s just once, which was the first game of this season.

8 of those 17 games he's gone 70+, and 6 of those are 80 plus.

Sure he won't sustain 90 100 every week so he'll dip back down, but you'll be waiting a long time for any significant drop and be missing a lot of points in the process that other options can't touch.

Regulator wrote:In Teddy's last 17 games he's scored below 50 twice and in the 30s just once, which was the first game of this season.

8 of those 17 games he's gone 70+, and 6 of those are 80 plus.

Sure he won't sustain 90 100 every week so he'll dip back down, but you'll be waiting a long time for any significant drop and be missing a lot of points in the process that other options can't touch.

The new format is made for him

Regulator wrote:In Teddy's last 17 games he's scored below 50 twice and in the 30s just once, which was the first game of this season.

8 of those 17 games he's gone 70+, and 6 of those are 80 plus.

Sure he won't sustain 90 100 every week so he'll dip back down, but you'll be waiting a long time for any significant drop and be missing a lot of points in the process that other options can't touch.

He is more of a chance of scoring a mid 30's/mid 40s than Haas is of having a sub 60 score.

Regulator wrote:In Teddy's last 17 games he's scored below 50 twice and in the 30s just once, which was the first game of this season.

8 of those 17 games he's gone 70+, and 6 of those are 80 plus.

Sure he won't sustain 90 100 every week so he'll dip back down, but you'll be waiting a long time for any significant drop and be missing a lot of points in the process that other options can't touch.

I think this too. Don't see him getting too cheap.

Teddy won’t get cheap. Lolo won’t get cheap. Haas won’t get cheap. McInnes won’t get cheap. Smith won’t get cheap. Yeo won’t get cheap. Twal won’t get cheap. Ponga won’t get cheap. Cook won’t get cheap.

It’s a problem.

CRAZY STAT TIME

I wanted to have a look at Ponga v Teddy average when playing Fullback and over 70 minutes since 2018 (Ponga went to Knights).

TEDESCO
2018: 53.6
2019: 59.6
2020: 71.5

Overall Average: 61.57 (includes two 100+ scores)

PONGA
2018: 56.4
2019: 51.5
2020: 68.4

Overall Average: 58.77 (zero 100+ scores)

There is only a 2.8 pt difference between their averages, which could be a tackle bust per game. We can make a few claims here that Tedesco has been more established for a bit longer, and further claims that Ponga has goal kicking…. But, when placing the two together for what they are… in the fantasy world, they are two very close entities. In a few years Ponga may even surpass Teddy, although he seems to just find another gear each year…. Origin will be a cracker this year!

I imagine Tedesco also has zero full game sub-10 scores, another category in his favour

robelgordo wrote:Teddy won’t get cheap. Lolo won’t get cheap. Haas won’t get cheap. McInnes won’t get cheap. Smith won’t get cheap. Yeo won’t get cheap. Twal won’t get cheap. Ponga won’t get cheap. Cook won’t get cheap.

It’s a problem.

I need three of these to drop into range fairly sharpish or my season is over. Just got to hope for the best

StormTrooper96 wrote:CRAZY STAT TIME

I wanted to have a look at Ponga v Teddy average when playing Fullback and over 70 minutes since 2018 (Ponga went to Knights).

TEDESCO
2018: 53.6
2019: 59.6
2020: 71.5

Overall Average: 61.57 (includes two 100+ scores)

PONGA
2018: 56.4
2019: 51.5
2020: 68.4

Overall Average: 58.77 (zero 100+ scores)

There is only a 2.8 pt difference between their averages, which could be a tackle bust per game. We can make a few claims here that Tedesco has been more established for a bit longer, and further claims that Ponga has goal kicking…. But, when placing the two together for what they are… in the fantasy world, they are two very close entities. In a few years Ponga may even surpass Teddy, although he seems to just find another gear each year…. Origin will be a cracker this year!

Thank God they are both in my FB’s!

Was all set to play Flegler whilst Carrigan was suspended. I had no idea Fleg was also getting suspended! Surely Carrigan couldn’t wait to plead guilty when he was offered 1 week for his dog act. Did he get some kind of leniency due to being sin binned or because it was Pearce?

robelgordo wrote:Teddy won’t get cheap. Lolo won’t get cheap. Haas won’t get cheap. McInnes won’t get cheap. Smith won’t get cheap. Yeo won’t get cheap. Twal won’t get cheap. Ponga won’t get cheap. Cook won’t get cheap.

It’s a problem.

Pearce was/is cheap. Taupau will be cheap.

Crisitunity!

robelgordo wrote:I imagine Tedesco also has zero full game sub-10 scores, another category in his favour

His lowest score is an 18 which came in R1 of last year...

I wouldn't advocate waiting for price drops if you have the cash available for Teddy, but panic trading guns because you're worried about his price continuing to increase, would probably not work out well.

In 2-3 weeks, the 900k price tag if it stays there will be more affordable if your cows are making money.

If he puts up a 30 in that time, then you can pick him up more comfortably without having to make any risky moves.

He had scores of 18, 43, 44, 32, 34 and 43 from 21 games last year, so almost 1 in 3 games he put up a score that can dent that 900k price tag.

Verbal Kint wrote:

I need three of these to drop into range fairly sharpish or my season is over. Just got to hope for the best

I am not targeting Yeo. My 2rf are done for the year. I have Haas, Lolo out of these.

I am aiming for Teddy, Ponga, possibly Twal, and one of CM9, Cook, Smith to get cheap enough to snap up over the course of the year!

Milchcow wrote:

Pearce was/is cheap. Taupau will be cheap.

Crisitunity!

If Cleary gets say 54 avg over the next couple weeks will be below 800K.

Another low score against Storm tonight would be really good, although not sure if I want to finish with Cleary, DCE and Moses

The one thing that ended up making me decide Teddy over Ponga is Roosters have Warriors, Titans & Dragons consecutively from R11

I couldn't handle that as a non-owner of Teddy and given his price is going to go up before it goes down, I felt I had to pick him up before I couldn't

Verbal Kint wrote:

I'd love to snap him up at ~750k r10 ish

Ambitious

Ok I've spent an exhaustive 5 minutes researching this, then 15 more writing it up...

My official GUN RANKINGS pew pew pew
~the best fantasy players, current price/value be damned~

1. Haas - doesn't ever have a bad score, 10pts minimum per game more than 2nd best FRF

2. Teddy - Most reliable WFB, or back in general. Decent gap to #2 WFB IMO

3. Ponga - Even bigger gap between #2 WFB and #3 WFB IMO

4. Lolo - even with inflated scores across the board comfortably the best 2RF, although you could probably get away without having him all season. You wouldn't feel great about it though.

5. McInnes - this is provisional... only 3 game sample and more gun-heavy position. But output insane right now, if he can average 75ish+ longer-term moves to #2. If he comes back to <65ish he's back at the end of the line with Smith, Cook.

6/7/8. Cleary/DCE/Moses (in some order) - some have 2 already, pretty much everyone has 1, I'm the idiot rolling with none. Probs needs at least one at some point - but there are options only 5-ish PPG less. I mean Kurt Mann is fairly solid!

9. Twal - an 80 minute error-free tackling machine about to get DPP.

T10. Smith/Cook
At the start of the season I wanted two of McInnes and these two guys by the end. Ideally all three. But there's Koro, Grant, Macca, Robson, Friend - so do you really need it?