NRL Fantasy 2020 Part-42 Man Down!

Mulvy wrote:

You probably know this Joey, you've been around a while, but I'll post in case it helps others.

If you intend to get both, then definitely get the low BE guy first. But BE only tells you when to buy, not who to buy. BE doesn't tell you how much money someone will make. To figure that out, you need to make a judgement on how much you think they'll average, times it by the magic number (I've been using 14000, but it's probably a little high atm) then you take a little bit off because getting to max value takes forever. You can use the price predictor on footystatistics.com, But I prefer to use Milchy's (still in the first post of this thread I think) so that I can extrapolate past three weeks and play around with different scenarios.

So basically BE doesn't mean buy Averillo by itself. It you think Averillo will continue to score 40 and hold his spot, you buy him because in 8 weeks he will have made 200-250k.

If you think he will score about 28, which is typical of a rookie centre, he only makes 100k, probably not worth a trade, and that's if he keeps his position.

FaringdonSwirl wrote:

This is very helpful, thanks. Couldn't work out which spreadsheet you were referring to, but MTBs site has been fine for me so far.

Chewie wrote:

I'm sure you mean more than just fine?
It's bloody awesome!



Love your work @MTB

Chewie Sucking Up To MTB:

Rabbits21 wrote:
Is Niu’s BE 28 this week or 44?

I’ve heard both, one must be incorrect.

FaringdonSwirl wrote:

This is very helpful, thanks. Couldn't work out which spreadsheet you were referring to, but MTBs site has been fine for me so far.

Andy V wrote:

Should be the official 44 version. Niu is $212 in the game, but is less that $212k in the background, so has to make up his lost value first before he can then go into profit from there.

FalconSloth wrote:Where does everyone find the warriors teamlist at 3:00?

Chewie wrote:

I'm sure you mean more than just fine?
It's bloody awesome!



Love your work @MTB

StormTrooper96 wrote:

I would be taking the gamble and getting him for points at CTR this week.

Rabbits21 wrote:
It’s either him or Averillo.

If Averillo scores low 30’s the next 3 weeks he will make something like around 120k.

Pookus McFly wrote:What the hell? Did the Mexicans change all their clocks again? Where’s me TLT?

FalconSloth wrote:Where does everyone find the warriors teamlist at 3:00?

my tv broke wrote:

usually its on the NRL app right on 3pm (in the matchcentre)

not there yet - maybe kearney forgot to give hte logins to payten  

StormTrooper96 wrote:


TLT at 4 mate.. Warriors team normally around 3pm?

Rabbits21 wrote:Who do we think makes more cash Averillo or Niu?

Pookus McFly wrote:

I swear it’s been coming in at 3pm Queensland time the last few weeks.
Well now it’s 3pm and I don’t want to wait an hour!

*prepares epic tantrum*

No Worries wrote:

Milch explained this. Both his & MTB numbers have him at 28. But neither of their calcs take into account his actual price which apparently much lower than the $212K. So to make a profit he would need to make the difference up between his actual price and the floor of $212K before he made a profit. That was how you get the difference between 28 & 44.