NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 83 - Send-offs are back

easytiger wrote:



Literally
Which basically means that if everyone is pretty much in the same boat, you're probably not really in any trouble at all...

Thanks for reiterating my point?

robelgordo wrote:

You and literally everyone else playing mate.

Can't be many teams with a WFB5 that allows them to still play 2 CTRs as well. And if you have enough trades, going sideways for WFB cover for one week is still gross.

I could field a 17* if Teddy & Ponga were out

* It would involve the single digit heroes of Talau if named and Averillo

Rabbits21 wrote:If Teddy was rested along with Ponga I’m in trouble.

robelgordo wrote:

You and literally everyone else playing mate.

Can't be many teams with a WFB5 that allows them to still play 2 CTRs as well. And if you have enough trades, going sideways for WFB cover for one week is still gross.

easytiger wrote:



Literally
Which basically means that if everyone is pretty much in the same boat, you're probably not really in any trouble at all...

I can cover, I've got Averillo who I can play for 6 point at CTR
Herbie and SCrichton at WFB to fill in for Teddy and Ponga

robelgordo wrote:

You and literally everyone else playing mate.

Can't be many teams with a WFB5 that allows them to still play 2 CTRs as well. And if you have enough trades, going sideways for WFB cover for one week is still gross.

I could sneak by with Sironen/Fermor and Asi coming into the 17, but it's not pretty

I imagine there would be plenty of zeros

Seriously though, I'll probably continue looking to pick up former raiders who didn't leave in a dickish way.
Cotric - I think the only thing holding him back from being a better scorer is involvement and thats largely down to the guys around him such as Rapa enjoying a good dig (without looking I'd hazard a guess his involvement was higher before we got Rapa back). In a weaker team i can see him doing a tonne of carries and thus lots of TB's. May see less tries but solo efforts should see him do well enough and i don't think the bulk of his points would rely on that anyway.
Murchie - Bit of a risk, but I think he's a talent and just growing into his footy. If he starts and looks like playing 80 i think he could grow.

Chewie wrote:


give me a F

give me an O

give me a G

What's it spell?!

GOD

robelgordo wrote:

Thanks for reiterating my point?

Sorry, your point was on point.

easytiger wrote:As it seems a bit of a slow fantasy day, just curious if anyone has put any thought into 2021 and players going around this year that you think may interest you next year?

Yes and no

It's more like side thought of he could be okay next year

Brian Kelly & Averillo in the CTRs should both be underpriced (Brian Kelly -1 last week + INT early on & Averillo loads of INT scores with Holland retiring & Lafai only signed for 2020 and not being played)

Probably pick a fair few Titans players

Captaincy should be interesting as Cleary, Haas & McInnes will be around 1m mark. Most prices probably inflated next year depending on they implement set restart deduction into fantasy

I think I'd probably also take a good hard look at Ryan James and CHN depending on our pack. I assume James will take the part of Sia and alternate with Lui on who starts depending on opposition and form, but still get quite a few minutes at a very reduced price. CHN a shot at Bateman's edge though i guess that could be dependent on the lock spot and whether we see Horse there or Tarps.

Camo123 wrote:
Most prices probably inflated next year depending on they implement set restart deduction into fantasy

Would make some interesting analysis as to whether some positions are likely to be more effected than others. On one hand, guys in the middle are in and around the ruck more often but on the other i think you see deliberate restarts given early on in a set (such as a kick return or scrums) where the guys on an edge are involved.

Mr Snrub wrote:

No not really, this whole year my strategy has been go week by week.

Besides last year, I had Jack Williams pencilled in as the first player I'd trade in this year. That worked out well didn't it.  

That's fair enough.
Was JW based on the eye test from 2019 performances, or largely due to Gallen retiring?
I grabbed him mostly based on likely minutes and hype - which is never ideal

easytiger wrote:As it seems a bit of a slow fantasy day, just curious if anyone has put any thought into 2021 and players going around this year that you think may interest you next year?

I've given it a bit of thought

- Two cheapest playing centres with job security and slight upside. At the moment that is probably Dylan Walker and Jarrod Croker, but will consider Curtis Scott, Esan Marsters, Tim Lafai. Won't consider perenial sub 20 guys like Whare, Parker, Seve

- At least 1 big name half. Cleary, DCE, Moses, SJ will be top of the list and I'll probably land on the one that ends up cheapest. Must have high base from kick metres

- Value guys in the 20-30 average range to round out the squad. Gotta have upside in these spots - Leniu on the watch list if Tamou moves on, Oates in a Broncos team that should be better, Host if he gets a starting spot somewhere, CHN in Bateman's spot, Hopoate in an improve Dogs team, Waddell presumed as Manly second rower

- Guys with a few games in 2020 that could be in for a big 2021 - Initial thought here is Schuster, but looking for Tex Hoy to feature here.

- Guys with injury affected, low minutes from significant rests or bench games that are now starters Lodge, Holmes, CHT, Liddle, JWH, Brooks, Arrow

Taking a quick squiz at the signing tracker on nrl.com I'd probably pick up Dominic Young depending on whether Welshy does or not

There are a few teams at the top that can cover Teddy + Ponga out. not always well, but if they both rest those that can cover, or have the trades to cover will have a leg up on the others

I can cover Teddy and Ponga out. Just play Hammer and move Crichton down from CTR.

Means I'll be one short in CTR, but i can cover WFB

Camo123 wrote:

Yes and no

It's more like side thought of he could be okay next year

Brian Kelly & Averillo in the CTRs should both be underpriced (Brian Kelly -1 last week + INT early on & Averillo loads of INT scores with Holland retiring & Lafai only signed for 2020 and not being played)

Probably pick a fair few Titans players

Captaincy should be interesting as Cleary, Haas & McInnes will be around 1m mark. Most prices probably inflated next year depending on they implement set restart deduction into fantasy

That's definitely an interesting one.
The Magic Number always seems to start higher than where it settles at. This year has gone from ~14500 to settle typically around ~12500
That 2000 drop is equivalent to about $140K overvalue compared to picking up a 70ish average gun later (assuming they maintained their priced average) - but of course there is an opportunity cost of not having those elite guns early on.

It can be offset if they boost their averages further. e.g. Haas went from 67 last year -> 73 this year, McInnes from 63 -> 73 and Cleary from 53 -> 73. If a set restart deduction is included then that should drop averages a little (but assume it would likely only be a -1? given a straight arm penalty is -2). I'm not sure they even add it as it seems the Ref's don't often pinpoint the reason/player for the restart.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I've given it a bit of thought

- Two cheapest playing centres with job security and slight upside. At the moment that is probably Dylan Walker and Jarrod Croker, but will consider Curtis Scott, Esan Marsters, Tim Lafai. Won't consider perenial sub 20 guys like Whare, Parker, Seve

- At least 1 big name half. Cleary, DCE, Moses, SJ will be top of the list and I'll probably land on the one that ends up cheapest. Must have high base from kick metres

- Value guys in the 20-30 average range to round out the squad. Gotta have upside in these spots - Leniu on the watch list if Tamou moves on, Oates in a Broncos team that should be better, Host if he gets a starting spot somewhere, CHN in Bateman's spot, Hopoate in an improve Dogs team, Waddell presumed as Manly second rower

- Guys with a few games in 2020 that could be in for a big 2021 - Initial thought here is Schuster, but looking for Tex Hoy to feature here.

- Guys with injury affected, low minutes from significant rests or bench games that are now starters Lodge, Holmes, CHT, Liddle, JWH, Brooks, Arrow

I know this year I've made a fair few mistakes with my trades and learnt some lessons

(1) Don't fall for the fixture trap - "easier" fixtures for forwards can mean less base stats and lower points and aren't always good for backs
(2) Try to avoid injury prone keepers - easier said then done
(3) Fuck Zac Lomax & CTRs

Prayers up for Cordner's cousin. Seems like a terrible situation

I don't want to do anything more than random thought bubbles for 2021 planning.
Basics will remain the same so looking at who might be cheap is still worthwhile, even if exactly how cheap they are will depend on scoring and salary cap tweaks

But after this year I wouldn't be surprised if they tinker with the squad size/number of trades.
Having smaller squads and less trades than supercoach just make that all you even do is cover injuries. Too much time is spent scrambling to cover short term outs rather than actually playing the game.

Where is Tedesco rested coming from? Can’t cover both him and Ponga

Next year I want fantasy to go back to the 25 man squad format as I don't like the current format as it's too easy to loop. If they could reinstate the 25 man squad & prevent looping full stop that would be ideal. But instead of your a.e. being the lowest scorer from any position your a.e. would be the highest scorer in the position who missed out & didn't play.