NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

Amazed that nearly 5% of players have sold Crichton. Think there's an argument for it if it's to get Cleary, but that's the only circumstance and that won't account for all of them.

It’s Lodge or RSmith that goes for a Leniu/Alvaro/AhMau.
The more I think about it those 3 on a standard week would all score around a similar score 35-40 so you’d be better off spending the 30-40k to upgrade Smith to the first two?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
I’m gonna go with Niu over Roberts this week. That matchup scares me for Roberts

Same here

Jack Torrance wrote:
Same here

With Fifita running that side, I'm tempted to Run Avo over Roberts this week. But then he plays Penrith so not much better really.

my tv broke wrote:

Nah avoided Waddell thankfully.

Kevy interviewed yesterday doesn't clear much up on Lodge, and I guess they don't know at this stage anyway.. quote:

"Lodgey will be out for 2 to 3 weeks, chance of getting him back next week".

https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=803371

Probably has to go.. maybe.

I could go Lodge to Ofa but I’m reluctant because I think Lodge can match his scores. I’m content to wait a week and potentially go to Collins

Roberts has averaged 45 in his last five games against the Roosters (admittedly this was a previous incarnation of James Roberts)

rhinoceroo wrote:Roberts has averaged 45 in his last five games against the Roosters (admittedly this was a previous incarnation of James Roberts)

Interesting.

wolfking wrote:

Interesting.

Even as a Roberts owner I wouldn’t be using that info haha. Might not even have the choice anyway, isn’t he a chance to not play this weekend?

Oz Sport Mad wrote:Talking about stats....and even when I am focusing on NRL Fantasy or Sportsdeck, I do usually find the NRL Supercoach Talk discussions fairly useful.....but I found the following side project from one of their regular contributors fairly interesting:

https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2021/03/16/nrl-round-1-2021-notes-trends/

Early days and small sample size....but some pretty useful trends appearing to be identified, which are worth keeping on eye on as the season progresses.

This is a great read, some interesting observations.
Funny how the ball in play time hasn't increased from last season due to the time teams spend standing under the sticks with the increase in points scores.
Does more tries equal more fantasy point for key playmakers? We did see a lot of tries for the fullbacks despite the wet conditions.
The article also mentions Papalii who had an outstanding perfomance this last game. 200 run meters! Bummer that he is awkwardly priced.

my tv broke wrote:

Nah avoided Waddell thankfully.

Kevy interviewed yesterday doesn't clear much up on Lodge, and I guess they don't know at this stage anyway.. quote:

"Lodgey will be out for 2 to 3 weeks, chance of getting him back next week".

https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=803371

Probably has to go.. maybe.

That makes it harder lol. 2-3 weeks but might be back next week

Welshy wrote:
Even as a Roberts owner I wouldn’t be using that info haha. Might not even have the choice anyway, isn’t he a chance to not play this weekend?

Would make the decision easier and could loop Niu and Avo. Douehi may help the team shift the ball more that way, but I'm clutching now.

Chewie wrote:The article also mentions Papalii who had an outstanding perfomance this last game. 200 run meters! Bummer that he is awkwardly priced.

This did remind me of something I thought about after rnd 1, the new club factor, mainly for middle forwards

Jai Arrow, Jo Ofa, Papalii, AFB/B Siro, even Suuaso Sue all had big stats in their first game at a new club. You could throw Cotric in there as well I guess.

Welshy wrote:
No mate I would probably keep him to be that 40 scorer I got him for, If I like what I see with the others I’ll probably get one in for Averillo

Gotcha

Lolo to go big vs Dragons

Jason Oliver
@JasonNRL
Jason Taumalolo has failed to run for over 100 metres only three times since the Raiders kept him to 54 metres in 2016 (40+ minutes).

Metres ran in his next game: 209m, 264m and 295m

I’m gonna keep Lodge I think for this week and pray for some luck next week.

RSmith becomes Leniu for my one trade this week

rhinoceroo wrote:

T/O stats are going to have a bigger effect on the game than we thought. Hard to know which players will benefit precisely, but there are more being awarded than we anticipated and that's going to have a long-term effect on scores/prices/magic number that I haven't worked out yet.

Certainly when someone was saying "round one scores in the 900s are amazing" it might not mean you have an amazing team. Would be interested to know about others but 60 of my 944 were from T/O points (admittedly 24 from captain Cleary) and without that 6.4% bump the Round One score looks a lot more normal.

Milchcow wrote:


Average  total fantasy score per round since the restart last year is about 10300, and last week there were 10236 points scored, including 376 TO points. Slightly under average total score.

Without them there would only have been 9860 points, easily the lowest under the new rules (but still higher than what was scored with 2 refs and no 6-again)

So far, rather than boosting points, turnovers have just helped to maintain the scoring that we are used to.
Round 1 is often a lower scoring round than others, so perhaps in the coming weeks we'll see scoring go beyond last year

The high fantasy scores by many teams are mainly because of the highly owned fantasy picks scoring high. IE Cleary, Teddy, Pappy, Latrell, Brailey.

I do think the TO's will add points overall fantasy wise once we have a bigger sample of games

my tv broke wrote:

This did remind me of something I thought about after rnd 1, the new club factor, mainly for middle forwards

Jai Arrow, Jo Ofa, Papalii, AFB/B Siro, even Suuaso Sue all had big stats in their first game at a new club. You could throw Cotric in there as well I guess.

The MIDs did score well this round, quite a few bagging a try as well.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I’m gonna keep Lodge I think for this week and pray for some luck next week.

RSmith becomes Leniu for my one trade this week

I prefer that mate. There a few players I’m watching who I can get next week if the trade finger gets itchy again. Will be watching the following closely outside the talked about subject this week

Egan will he play 80 with no HIA
Collins
Merrin
BSiro
Kamikamica

Pookus McFly wrote:People seem to be holding strong with Lam, but I have some serious paper hands.

I picked him expecting bulk kick metres, much like Flanagan last season. But Keary being put into halfback seems to be the signal I will fully ignores that he will dominate kicking. I think Lam WILL still earn some money and do well enough to be serviceable, but jumping on someone like Milford immediately will make me more money, yield better scores and give a round 1 halfback.

Does anybody think Lam turns it around enough without those KMs? I really see him hitting low 30s from here on out

This is an interesting post. I know a lot started with Lam, and we didn't all jump on the MTB Milf bandwagon. Your paper hands are fair, I was just looking at a nice sideways trade of Lam to Milf.

In his three games last year playing over 50 minutes he averaged 57, this includes one 80 minute game at halfback with almost 400KMs and two games off the bench playing hooker. All three games he had at least 31 tackles. In his only other game at half he kicked for almost as many metres as he did last week in 20 minutes. Last week Lam had 18 tackles, with 134 KMs and no attacking stats. It was a weird game as others have noted, he played the second half at hooker but defended out wide. Never ran from DH and couldn't get the cheap tackles.

Keary obviously looked the dominate half, but still came off with an injury late in the game as he is literally made of glass. I can see the value in both holding and trading, if you're low on cash (as I am) one more big game from Milf would put him out of reach as a straight swap. HOWEVER, with all that said Milf started last season with two 50s before having his worst season yet. He's a volatile player.

TLDR: Lam scored a 31 in the first game of the season, playing basically one half of football in his position. Probably worth holding for another week.

Obviously all moot when Walker snakes his job. Kinda wish I took CHT.

Reklaw wrote:HOWEVER, with all that said Milf started last season with two 50s before having his worst season yet. He's a volatile player.

Only issue with Milf is he had the kind of game that should of been a 75+ score. Missed tackles are always going to be a problem for him.

The next two weeks are probably pretty critical for our season and his scoring. We need a couple of wins to put last season behind us. If we are 0-3 then heads will drop pretty quickly.

Titans this week is very winnable and then the Dogs, but after that its Storm Rabbits Panthers..