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Milchcow wrote:
The problem with taking Parker and not captaining him - if he scores big (70+) then you need to hope your captain goes bigger otherwise you will not win. That's as low odds as just not picking Parker in the first place
Gillett outscored Parker 4 times last year
Manu Ma'u outscored him twice (although 2 of Manu's top 3 scores were weeks Parker didn't play)
So if you pick Parker and Captain him and he scores well, you still have to beat half the comp. Your chances of winning have not improved much.
If you pick Gillett and captain him, in most cases you won't do well. But if he does outscore Parker (19% chance based on last years stats) then suddenly you are going to have a jump on the rest of the pack.
In comps like this there are no prizes for second place. There is zero value in putting up a credible high score that falls only 10 points short.
Captain Parker every week and you'll do OK. Get yourself a decent score each week.
Take a strategy like Captain Gillett though, and on a week to week basis you will probably struggle,
but in the 2-3 weeks of the year that Gillett goes big then suddenly you look Ok for the money.
Round 1 last year Gillett outscored Parker by 31 points (Hunt by 38, McCullough by 17, Peats by 46) If you captained him, you would have done super well. The big downer would be you'd lose to someone who captained Radradra (14 more than Gillett)
I think if you want to go for the high risk high reward strategy picking a winger as captain is a good way to go too. because the week you pick the guy that scores a hattrick is the week you can win the prize.
If you want to just pick the big scoring players - that is fine, but its not the type of strategy being discussed in this thread.
Yeah it gets interesting when you start looking at the actual stats.
I would assume that Semi outscored Parker more times than Gillett did last year (although I don't actually know) and that is I guess where I was coming from with my sub-optimal selection.
Having said that, I would also assume more people would captain Semi than Gillett, so you also have to get your other ducks to line up at the same time.
Regardless, it's a poor example because in reality the Broncos would fucking annihilate the Eels, so the best strategy would be to play it as you see it and load up on Broncos outside backs.....
