NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 69 - Nice

sgdragons10 wrote:This is no way is a post to attack forum or discredit it because I have received a lot of help from it but I believe that as a forum there has been many poor decisions, the main being frade averillo after round 3, then came the dont buy turbo he’s injury prone, starling risk, Fogarty risk matterson risk and the dreaded Roberts will come good. I guess it’s a lesson that you’re always the one who should make the final decision.

As everyone said, its crazy to think Averillo was a bad sell. Especially when most people needed a CTR that week to field 17.

I'd say the biggest misses were the forum being about 95% Lam > Townsend, and I guess iPap. but there are reasons for all the "poor" decisions.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

The thing with this is it says regular season only... so is it saying pretty much minor premiership (in which Storm are only paying $2.20). Like what is with the "regular season only"...

Well if that's it, get on it! I'll talk to the bank, we can't lose!

Milchcow wrote:

Let's just say you want to learn from your mistakes and do better next year.

You get a cheap player because you think he can average 35-40 points.
After 3 weeks he has averaged 22, then gets injured. It might be only a 1 week injury, but he also plays for the worst team in the comp and they haven't won a game yet.

Definite hold?
Bonus points if his injury means you can't field a 17 in his position that week.

Also I think the forum consensus was to avoid Starling (correct call) Matterson if there was any consensus was probably to avoid (looks to be a good call) not sure if there was consensus on Fogarty either.

Probably the biggest mistake we made collectively was not jumping on iPap early enough. Very few of us did it
We were probably a little too keen on Tedesco pre-season as well


BTW, I know there were a few ho didn't want Trbo, but a bunch of us jumped on early. I got him after 1 game in first grade. Hasn't helped me though as I'm struggling to maintain a top 10k rank

A lot seem to confuse the trade outcome with the information that was available at the time. If for example you trade out Cleary averaging 97 (24 points better than next captaincy option) then he gets a 1st minute HIA, scores -1 and misses 6 weeks it was still a bad trade that ended well. The logic behind those that traded out Averillo was sound and I would do it 10 times out of 10.

Same logic applies to Starling last year. Bench hooker with poor first grade record playing behind an established starter in a top team. People would have thought you had rocks in your head if you thought he would get anymore than 30 minutes and average any more than 25 points. the outcome of Ricky running a different interchange rotation from any other NRL coach (including himself in past and future season) doesn't make it a good trade.

Bad trades can have good outcomes, good trades can have bad outcomes. The more good trades you make the more likely you are to do well

sgdragons10 wrote:This is no way is a post to attack forum or discredit it because I have received a lot of help from it but I believe that as a forum there has been many poor decisions, the main being frade averillo after round 3, then came the dont buy turbo he’s injury prone, starling risk, Fogarty risk matterson risk and the dreaded Roberts will come good. I guess it’s a lesson that you’re always the one who should make the final decision.

This is the thing, for some it is obvious from the outset that ur decision is ur own, clearly it is. We come together and chat about fantasy, there is never a final choice from any of the chatter whereby the forum has said this is the recommended choice. At times the group think can literally be maybe 4 or 5 posters who have said the same thing and suddenly that means the whole forum pushes this.

As for even 4 above of Matterson, Fogarty, Starling and Roberts. There is nothing to say what was right there.

Might have already been posted but good vid doing the rounds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D9Bssk3tI0&ab_channel=Gourley%27sSocks

Aardvark wrote:

Generally what happens is that a discussion about a certain player comes up and then it continues on for a couple of pages so it looks like 'forum consensus'. As you say, in the end you have to look at what is best for your team and then make your own decision

I actually find what impacts more on my own shithouse decisions is the fact that I have played for so long that I have ingrained opinions on certain players that are hard to get over, making it harder to jump on someone having a good run e.g.

Trbo will get injured
Teddy will come good
Yeo is ordinary (last year )
Ipap is a bench player who gets about 30 mins
Townsend is a chump
Tohu is consistent but has a lower ceiling get someone more exciting
DCE has a pencil neck
etc etc

On the Averillo thing, pretty sure most of the traders (myself included) needed a centre that week and had to choose between keeping him or Roberts.....we know what happened there

And Gutherson has scored most points out of the lot at WFB so far this season...

multiple.scoregasms wrote:
A lot seem to confuse the trade outcome with the information that was available at the time. If for example you trade out Cleary averaging 97 (24 points better than next captaincy option) then he gets a 1st minute HIA, scores -1 and misses 6 weeks it was still a bad trade that ended well. The logic behind those that traded out Averillo was sound and I would do it 10 times out of 10.

Same logic applies to Starling last year. Bench hooker with poor first grade record playing behind an established starter in a top team. People would have thought you had rocks in your head if you thought he would get anymore than 30 minutes and average any more than 25 points. the outcome of Ricky running a different interchange rotation from any other NRL coach (including himself in past and future season) doesn't make it a good trade.

Bad trades can have good outcomes, good trades can have bad outcomes. The more good trades you make the more likely you are to do well

Howdy Y'all,

This. In a season that has necessitated a lot of trade reflection, this is 100% correct. It is the logic of the trade, not the trade outcome itself, that is the most important factor, but we often focus on the latter. I have made several "bad-bad" trades where the logic did not justify the trade, and the outcome occurred accordingly; eg. taking a punt on Starling hoping for last years scenario, some "good-bad" trades, ie. trading in Fuimaono as MID-EDG cover in Rd2, Averillo+Lam > Schuster and SOS in Rd 4, where the logic was sound, but the outcome was poor, some good-good trades - Hynes etc. Not sure that I've had many bad-good trades, where luck is the key. These are typically the ones where people go early on players who have uncertain roles or are about to go on a tear (ie. 2020 Starling) and I'm a cautious trader usually, so I avoid these.

I guess Averillo is the symbol of this season. The Averillo that existed in Rd1-3 is not the Averillo that exists now. The logic behind trading out Averillo in Rd4 is not the same as trading in now. He averaged low 20s, had little involvement, and had no prospect of the scoring which has made him so valuable in a team where Flanagan dominated kicking. You throw in the circumstances of the trade - the CTR shortage - and you can't really blame yourself. Except I can't use that, because I didn't need a CTR that week (having Roberts and Momi) - but I traded him anyway because of the above factors and got Walker, who in comparison looked much better. Walker did a job and proved a good trade in isolation, but compared to what it ultimately cost, it turns out to be a "good-bad" trade. Its a sliding doors moment that probably defines my season by this stage in terms of points a trade/team value.

I'm not sure what the lessons learned report of 2021 will be, but I'm not sure that Averillo proves anything fundamentally different. Just goes to show that you can think about it as much as possible and be right in theory, but the real world outcome doesn't give a hoot and its mainly about being just good enough and getting lucky sometimes.

The Mayor.

Correction: Schuster not Walker. Same thinking applies.
Walker came in for Croker, which was another "good-bad" trade in that my team probably was better off holding Croker and trading someone else, but at that time Croker was playing 50 minutes and struggling to score 30s and Cade Cust had emerged on the bench. Of course, Cust got sick, dropped out for a bit, Croker has played 80 since then and averaged 50-odd.

Would love to hear what Tim Paine thinks about this, the dry-lipped cunt he is.

Lemmy KGB wrote:Would love to hear what Tim Paine thinks about this, the dry-lipped cunt he is.

 
He thinks everyone should've held Averillo

Jumping Marlin wrote:Game of Sheep: 19 entries so far.  I haven't opened any to look at yet so they'll be still sitting in your outbox.

Hey mate, I haven't been online much this week - can you link to the thread? Can't find it.

filthridden wrote:Might have already been posted but good vid doing the rounds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D9Bssk3tI0&ab_channel=Gourley%27sSocks

Yeah, this.

Rava needs to change his style but he's done three body shots for 8 weeks, while literally dozens on tackles that either hit the head or put the head in a dangerous position are either fines or not penalised. 

It's easier to complain about refs, but I've found the judiciary way more baffling for years, and its getting worse.

robelgordo wrote:

Yeah, this.

Rava needs to change his style but he's done three body shots for 8 weeks, while literally dozens on tackles that either hit the head or put the head in a dangerous position are either fines or not penalised. 

It's easier to complain about refs, but I've found the judiciary way more baffling for years, and its getting worse.

Doesn't help with VLandys and co trumpeting on about how concussion and head injuries are such a concern and they'll do anything to stop it and clearly they're not.

PVL full of shit as always.

filthridden wrote:Might have already been posted but good vid doing the rounds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D9Bssk3tI0&ab_channel=Gourley%27sSocks

robelgordo wrote:Yeah, this.

Rava needs to change his style but he's done three body shots for 8 weeks, while literally dozens on tackles that either hit the head or put the head in a dangerous position are either fines or not penalised. 

It's easier to complain about refs, but I've found the judiciary way more baffling for years, and its getting worse.

Is Ravalawa the new Steve Matai?

Love the win but I have no idea why the final of this World Test Championship was a single game? Wouldn’t a 3 game series make more sense, or a 5 gamer to really test the mettle of teams.

Anyway wooohooo it is what it is

Agree with MS and The Mayor. Playing poker is similar - it's about the making the best decision with the information you have at the time. The skill comes from knowing when to bet and how much to bet (i.e. who to trade and when). I reckon some of the better fantasy players on here would make for some solid poker players.
Anyway, that was my excuse to talk about poker for a moment.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Love the win but I have no idea why the final of this World Test Championship was a single game? Wouldn’t a 3 game series make more sense, or a 5 gamer to really test the mettle of teams.

Anyway wooohooo it is what it is

I wish it was logistically possible to have a 3 game series in 3 different parts of the world. Swing central England or NZ, bouncy Australia/SA/Caribbean,  spinny sub-continent/UAE. That would be epic.

StuDogg101 wrote:

I wish it was logistically possible to have a 3 game series in 3 different parts of the world. Swing central England or NZ, bouncy Australia/SA/Caribbean,  spinny sub-continent/UAE. That would be epic.

I'm voting Stu for new ICC president. This would be really cool to see.

filthridden wrote:

Hey mate, I haven't been online much this week - can you link to the thread? Can't find it.

This was JM's post:


FANTASY FANATICS GAME OF SHEEP

Here we have it. Game of Sheep.

HOW TO PLAY

Answer the following 20 questions with the answer you think will be the most common answer from the forum. The idea is to figure out who knows the forum members the most. You don't enter what you think the answer is, but what you think the forum will think the answer is. Using an example:

For example, lets say the question is "What year will Kevin Walters get sacked"

If 20 people answer and 5 say 2021, 15 say 2022.

> The 5 people who answered 2021 will get 5 points.
> The 15 people who answered 2022 will get 15 points

Highest points at end is champ. King or Queen of the Sheep.
So even if you think he'll get sacked in 2021 - the best answer is to say 2021 because that's what most people answered.

HOW TO SUBMIT YOUR ANSWER

Simple - PM me your answers.

It will help if you put your FF name and answers only, one per line and spelt correctly. [Ie no numbers etc]. Eg

Jumping Marlin
Luke Brooks
10250
etc

THE QUESTIONS

1: Who is the best player in the NRL?
2: What position will MTB finish in fantasy this year. To nearest 250. [ie 1; 250; 500; 750; etc]
3: Who will win the wooden spoon this year?
4: Which fanatic do you most want to have a beer with?
5: What two teams will get knocked out in the Grand Final qualifiers?
6: Who is the Fantasy Fanatics villain of 2021?
7: Who is your favourite player to watch IRL?
8: Who is the FF quiet achiever - the fanatic who gives advice that you most take notice to. [You cannot answer MS, MTB, Milch].
9: Which player would you most like to tackle where you can be the 3rd man in with a swinging arm with no repercussions (ie who do you most want to belt)?
10: Which player should replace Aubo as the player the Fanatics have a love affair with?
11: Which team in the NRL has the worst defence?
12: Is Nathan Cleary's 2021 the best fantasy season ever?
13: Who is the NRLs best tackler?
14: Which player has the biggest gap between their skills at IRL player and their fantasy output? [Looking for name of a gun IRL player that does not translate to fantasy].
15: Which coach will be next sacked?
16: Which Fanatic would you most likely be OK introducing your mum to?
17: Which player should the Tigers recruit (ignore contracts) to build a team around.
18: What is the average time you spend on fantasy related activity each week, excluding watching games. Answer in hours
19: Who is the hardest player to tackle in the NRL?
20: What is your highest position ever in fantasy, rounded to nearest 50. [1, 50, 100 etc]

Both Radley & Ravalawa have been phucked over by the nrl while others seem to get a free pass or a lenient suspension.
Just on Radley playing up on that flight imo he thought ok the nrl phucked me over so I'm going phuck the nrl over by creating bad press for the nrl. Fair enough he may not of thought this but this is what I would do.

Rabbits21 wrote:I work for Woolies and it was a tough day today very busy, the panic buying has started again here in Sydney.

Quite a few customers as well not wearing a mask. We can offer them a complimentary one but we only get abused.

I feel this is my soul