NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 82 - Monday Night Football DOUBLE HEADER!

FalconSloth wrote:MTBs breakevens are normally more accurate than the official ones

I'd forgotten to update them. Should be good to go now if anyone is still interested.

I'd love to be the contrarian and go without Cleary but we've seen the devastating effect he had on non owners already.

Plus its just a shoulder injury, won't stop him running or kicking, he may even run it more.

SJ > Ponga tonight

Then let the cards fall where they me for the second trade. A lot of variables involved.

- Does Cleary start
- Does Hughes drop out and Hynes take his spot
- Does Fog come back

Will be Fog/Hynes leaving for Cleary

Randomly clicked Lone Scout's Q&A for the first time in forever, wasn't disappointed with this re. Cleary.

"He has a break even of 97 so if he's rusty in his return and has a mediocre score his price will drop significantly, making him much more affordable a week later if your budget is tight"

Then goes on to say..

"even an off night for Cleary is usually worth 70-80 points"

Really hoping Cleary plays now so I can save that 20k next week.

Just had another look at Hynes BE! Even if he is starting in the halves I may have no choice but to move him his week

Pain wrote:I'd love to be the contrarian and go without Cleary but we've seen the devastating effect he had on non owners already.  

Plus its just a shoulder injury,  won't stop him running or kicking, he may even run it more.

He seems quite tough and seems like his rehab has been around the clock to get back.

Tempted just to trade him in and put the C on him.

wolfking wrote:Tempted just to trade him in and put the C on him.

I have. He's a competitor.

Current trade is Fog -> Murray, leaving me with just 1 trade. Could wait this week to see if fog plays but Murray will be rising and out of reach with a 60+ score.

At an absolute loss whether to just save the final 2 trades for injuries or be aggresive and get Murray in

WT Winfield wrote:Randomly clicked Lone Scout's Q&A for the first time in forever, wasn't disappointed with this re. Cleary.

"He has a break even of 97 so if he's rusty in his return and has a mediocre score his price will drop significantly, making him much more affordable a week later if your budget is tight"

Then goes on to say..

"even an off night for Cleary is usually worth 70-80 points"

Really hoping Cleary plays now so I can save that 20k next week.

Similar to Papy, at this point of the season I'd rather have the points than the cash. Saving 20k while missing out on 80x2 won't help too much next week

If you have 2 trades left, and 20 green dots. With no huge issues, I mean my 14-21 isn’t awesome. But mostly okay with coverage for all positions.

I don’t have funds to go hunt to Cleary unless I double trade and bring in blore, using my last trade.

With 6 weeks to go, holding off seems smart.

Could go hunt to cook, which means I don’t have to play the cheese.

Anyone have strong views on this predicament

Not sure if this is useful or not, but I've got all the fullback scores vs the Broncos for the season to try and work out if Ponga is a good captain choice as I was tempted but it felt risky.



Also compared their scores to the teams score against the Broncos to see if there was a correlation.



Summary:The r value came out at 0.55, which is a moderately positive correlation. If you're expecting a blow out from the Knights there's a decent chance Ponga scores a captain worthy score. But who knows because fullbacks are so up and down i.e. AJ in round 2

P.S. sorry for the massive pictures. My smooth monkey brain couldn't work out how to insert a table...

If the Knights win possession, then Ponga should have a field day on our edges.

Fortitude wrote:If you have 2 trades left, and 20 green dots. With no huge issues, I mean my 14-21 isn’t awesome. But mostly okay with coverage for all positions.

I don’t have funds to go hunt to Cleary unless I double trade and bring in blore, using my last trade.

With 6 weeks to go, holding off seems smart.

Could go hunt to cook, which means I don’t have to play the cheese.

Anyone have strong views on this predicament

I don't think you can win the comp without Cleary.

If you can end up with 21 green dots and Cleary I think it's worth pulling the trigger

EDIT: You will need a ton of luck in the run home but I'd rather roll the dice and have a shot instead of limping home to finish 100th

wolfking wrote:

He seems quite tough and seems like his rehab has been around the clock to get back.

Reinjury seems to be the big risk with Cleary rather than his scores being no good. It would be a kick in the teeth to spend your last trades and have 1.2mill on the pine and no way to replace it.

That said, I'd definitely bring him in if I had the trades/cash, but I don't. So, without hoping for injuries, will just have to hope for some quiet 70s and Penrith winning games by enough that he gets early marks before Cleary Time.

Fortitude wrote:If you have 2 trades left, and 20 green dots. With no huge issues, I mean my 14-21 isn’t awesome. But mostly okay with coverage for all positions.

I don’t have funds to go hunt to Cleary unless I double trade and bring in blore, using my last trade.

With 6 weeks to go, holding off seems smart.

Could go hunt to cook, which means I don’t have to play the cheese.

Anyone have strong views on this predicament

Only 5 weeks mate.

Would you go Hynes and Fog out this week to Ponga and Cleary and keep SJ just to keep the price fluctuations out of the question for next week?

Catching up on the last few pages I have a few notes to add:
 
1.    Someone asked if Bellyache would rest Finucane because he is leaving next year. The answer is definitely not! Finucane is head honcho in that pack. Such a great asset to the team and one I am very upset who is leaving. Look at Tino, bloke was already out the door, but he was huge to our success last year and played every game.
 
2.    That Fox piece on Hughes is literally some guy putting 2 and 2 together. Hughes complained of calf pain last week, Cooper Johns on bench… = Hughes in doubt. No direct quotes, it is all Storm may, Bellamy may… Nothing in it, move on!


3.    Hynes is losing value and dropping scores with his changing positions around the field. Even if he plays in the halves this week Munster will be the chief on the field. Hynes is a sell to Cleary this week and the C goes straight on him. If he doesn’t play, Schuster fills in at half and I am giving the VC to Ponga because he will run rings around the Broncos edges tonight.  

bumping community team trade poll - https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1734-rd-21-trades - looking a close run thing

also captaincy poll here - https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1735-rd-21-team#552854

Pain wrote:

I have.  He's a competitor.

Balls out mate, seriously might join you.