NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 19 - Do something Fifita!!!

Is it likely Tuilagi returns to Tigers starting side ?

I can move and trade all my players but my C and VC are still locked.
Top work Fanhub

Khany wrote:Is it likely Tuilagi returns to Tigers starting side ?

We'll know tomo night

mrbrownstone wrote:

Yeah, Starling average between 50-70 mins is 44.9. Average 70+ minutes is 57.1.

Maybe still some value there if 55 mins is going to be his number, but definitely more marginal. Not too upset I reversed that trade, despite copping Bully's score.

Honestly think I might skip Starling and grab two of May/Thompson/Brodie - depending how it shakes out for Bully/Walters/Tui to help clean up the EMGs

Lolo + Mahoney -> Cleary gives me 351k to play with, probably May or Jones depending on what teamlists throw up.

Will have to run with no HOK cover for now.

Clack Bocks wrote:the way turbo has gone this year, i'm waiting on Cleary.

Know it has probably already been said but I think you are comparing two very different players here. And before we had a week of Cleary trade talk and comparing this specific situation I want to jump in.

Turbo relished the faster game and racked up 1.6 tries, 1.6 try assists, 1.8 line breaks, 2 line break assists, 6.6 tackle busts and 215m all per game in 2021.
This year those same numbers are respectively 0.3 tries, 0.3 try assists, 0.3 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 2.7 tackle busts and 180m per game in 2022.
His career averages as a fullback are respectively 0.7 tries, 0.9 try assists, 1 line break, 0.9 line break assists, 4.6 tackle busts and 183m per game.

So what I think we are seeing with Tommy Turbo is:
1. A regression back to the mean - that 2021 is absolutely bonkers.
2. A slower game with less fatigue leading to overall lower scores.
3. A reasonably tough early draw and then one game in the wet. He's probably due some improvement as 2022 has been tough sledding so far.

With Cleary some of these points may hinder him (lower scores and maybe some regressions - again had a monster 2021) but I think he's very different from Tommy T (see smorgasbord of stats below) .

Cleary last season numbers are 0.6 tries, 4.8 goals, 0.1 Field Goals, 1.1 Try assists, 0.6 line breaks, 0.9 line break assists, 19 tackles, 2.9 tackle breaks, 1.1 offloads, 0.8 turnovers, 1.1 forced dropouts, 113m run and 508 kick metres.
Cleary halfback career averages 0.4 tries, 3.5 goals, 0.1 Field Goals, 0.6 Try assists, 0.4 line breaks, 0.6 line break assists, 18 tackles, 2.3 tackle breaks, 0.8 offloads, 0.1 turnovers, 0.7 forced dropouts, 86m run and 353 kick metres.

Turnovers and forced dropout can't read into as the stat is new but the rest I can attribute to the panthers being a better team and their attacking stats being higher than over the course of his career. While his fantasy numbers are ridiculous I don't believe comparing Cleary and Turbo is fair. Do I think Cleary will lose cash - yes. But certainly not at the same rate Turbo has.

The safe play is certainly to wait a few weeks and get him at a better price. It's always a risk he comes out underdone or re-injures himself but there's also the risk of Cleary gunning it and averaging 80+ and gaining cash. I think there are many good reasons not to get Cleary but he could do a Turbo isn't one of them. Too many facets of his game are fantasy gold kind of like how Hynes played this week. The main issue I have with getting Cleary now is balancing cash generation vs points and Origin. I ultimately believe Cleary will sit in the 850 - 950k ballpark (68 - 76 average with MN = 12,500). How much in a year of some pretty average cash cows do you value the unknown 100 - 200k he may lose vs getting the best and most consistent captain (think of CS9 rule #1 talk of previous years). Add to this I feel if you wait too many weeks then we are up against Origin and it becomes a guessing game of how many games he will miss and is his higher average as captain worth the less overall games.

I 100% respect the wait and see approach if you want certainty. Just don't think he'll be a bargain in 3 weeks like poor Tom will be given his rough start. Also kudos to the brave that started with Tommy T. Was a really bold play and certainly could have been a masterstroke if he kept his 2021 form but unfortunately the risk reward wasn't in your favour. I feel Cleary is a similar decision just the risk/reward is not quite as polarising as it was with Turbo.

Sorry for the rant and please don't think I'm having a go at you CB. Just disagreed and before I got too far I had a story and thought it was a good point to deep dive on.

Also credit to MTB for the stats. Really helps me understand and define players more impartially than I do just watching the game.

Cap n Ranta with yet again another classy post

Straight swap Mahoney to Cleary & then Bully to whoever. Would prefer to wait a week but Mahoney might lose more than Cleary  

Lolo can hang around

Choice of Crichton and Mahoney as guns to start really has bitten the Aardvarks.

Hard road back but last week was a positive move, if not all that I hoped for

Oooooft, was just mucking around and came up with these trades:

Subbed Burton from my bench to starting CTR for Aitken, then went Aitken --> Jones and Dfifi --> Cleary.

I feel like this is a good trade solution to get in Cleary, would you lads agree??

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Oooooft, was just mucking around and came up with these trades:

Subbed Burton from my bench to starting CTR for Aitken, then went Aitken --> Jones and Dfifi --> Cleary.

I feel like this is a good trade solution to get in Cleary, would you lads agree??

Even if we all said yes you'll probably not agree and look for a way to keep DFifi lol

Finch wrote:

Even if we all said yes you'll probably not agree and look for a way to keep DFifi lol

More so care for Aitken at this point than Dfifi bro hahahah

This round was the lowest scoring of the season, with just 9390 points scored.
some popular fantasy picks managed to get the good scores, so a lot of our teams probably managed OK (especially those who captained Hynes)

BEs updated into first post if you need to find them again

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Oooooft, was just mucking around and came up with these trades:

Subbed Burton from my bench to starting CTR for Aitken, then went Aitken --> Jones and Dfifi --> Cleary.

I feel like this is a good trade solution to get in Cleary, would you lads agree??

Is Aitken a better trade out option than Burton?
David Fifita is still to hit a big game and his ownership is about 23% in the top 5000 so could make a difference when he banners up

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Oooooft, was just mucking around and came up with these trades:

Subbed Burton from my bench to starting CTR for Aitken, then went Aitken --> Jones and Dfifi --> Cleary.

I feel like this is a good trade solution to get in Cleary, would you lads agree??

I'm just not sure on trading Fifita. He is still averaging 47.5 without having had a big game. His missed tackle count last week was the highest it's been for a number of years which brought him under 50 and at some point you would think they figure out how to get the best out of him. He will bust out a monster game or two but you would hope that is sooner rather than later.

It's not like you picked him to be a consistent scorer...he is the ultimate boom/bust guy although last year was mostly boom.

Anyway have a look at the stats yourself and figure out what's best for you as, while Cleary might not score what he costs, he will probably score well enough to be there or thereabouts for the top scorer for the year.

I'm happy to hold Aitken for as long as I can given his DPP and the fact he is still knocking out 40+ each week.

Again it depends on what suits your team e.g. I am happy to let Mahoney go now I have both Starling and Randall and I didn't buy Mahoney for his boom games, I bought him to score 55 points every week and be my captain until I got Clearly on board (he hasn't dealt with the pressure well)

Very valid points, thanks gents.

Plenty of time to work it out, let's just hope we get a surprise cash cow tomorrow so everyone can fit Cleary in

I am planning to go from Fifita to Murray this week.

Going from the guy that his coach and team mates can't get involved, to a guy you couldn't keep out of the action if you tried. Could be the best $62k I spend all season.

Sneaking him in while everyone else is tearing their teams apart to grab Cleary.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Know it has probably already been said but I think you are comparing two very different players here. And before we had a week of Cleary trade talk and comparing this specific situation I want to jump in.

Turbo relished the faster game and racked up 1.6 tries, 1.6 try assists, 1.8 line breaks, 2 line break assists, 6.6 tackle busts and 215m all per game in 2021.
This year those same numbers are respectively 0.3 tries, 0.3 try assists, 0.3 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 2.7 tackle busts and 180m per game in 2022.
His career averages as a fullback are respectively 0.7 tries, 0.9 try assists, 1 line break, 0.9 line break assists, 4.6 tackle busts and 183m per game.

So what I think we are seeing with Tommy Turbo is:
1. A regression back to the mean - that 2021 is absolutely bonkers.
2. A slower game with less fatigue leading to overall lower scores.
3. A reasonably tough early draw and then one game in the wet. He's probably due some improvement as 2022 has been tough sledding so far.

With Cleary some of these points may hinder him (lower scores and maybe some regressions - again had a monster 2021) but I think he's very different from Tommy T (see smorgasbord of stats below) .

Cleary last season numbers are 0.6 tries, 4.8 goals, 0.1 Field Goals, 1.1 Try assists, 0.6 line breaks, 0.9 line break assists, 19 tackles, 2.9 tackle breaks, 1.1 offloads, 0.8 turnovers, 1.1 forced dropouts, 113m run and 508 kick metres.
Cleary halfback career averages 0.4 tries, 3.5 goals, 0.1 Field Goals, 0.6 Try assists, 0.4 line breaks, 0.6 line break assists, 18 tackles, 2.3 tackle breaks, 0.8 offloads, 0.1 turnovers, 0.7 forced dropouts, 86m run and 353 kick metres.

Turnovers and forced dropout can't read into as the stat is new but the rest I can attribute to the panthers being a better team and their attacking stats being higher than over the course of his career. While his fantasy numbers are ridiculous I don't believe comparing Cleary and Turbo is fair. Do I think Cleary will lose cash - yes. But certainly not at the same rate Turbo has.

The safe play is certainly to wait a few weeks and get him at a better price. It's always a risk he comes out underdone or re-injures himself but there's also the risk of Cleary gunning it and averaging 80+ and gaining cash. I think there are many good reasons not to get Cleary but he could do a Turbo isn't one of them. Too many facets of his game are fantasy gold kind of like how Hynes played this week.  The main issue I have with getting Cleary now is balancing cash generation vs points and Origin. I ultimately believe Cleary will sit in the 850 - 950k ballpark (68 - 76 average with MN = 12,500). How much in a year of some pretty average cash cows do you value the unknown 100 - 200k he may lose vs getting the best and most consistent captain (think of CS9 rule #1 talk of previous years). Add to this I feel if you wait too many weeks then we are up against Origin and it becomes a guessing game of how many games he will miss and is his higher average as captain worth the less overall games.

I 100% respect the wait and see approach if you want certainty. Just don't think he'll be a bargain in 3 weeks like poor Tom will be given his rough start. Also kudos to the brave that started with Tommy T. Was a really bold play and certainly could have been a masterstroke if he kept his 2021 form but unfortunately the risk reward wasn't in your favour. I feel Cleary is a similar decision just the risk/reward is not quite as polarising as it was with Turbo.

Sorry for the rant and please don't think I'm having a go at you CB. Just disagreed and before I got too far I had a story and thought it was a good point to deep dive on.  

Also credit to MTB for the stats. Really helps me understand and define players more impartially than I do just watching the game.

And just to add to this, Hynes output for me under the current fantasy points is an indication of the involvement and output from Cleary. I think you can wait 1 week to see how 'involved' he is, but expect to pay about the same as his BE is around 74.

At the moment, it's Fifita & Burton to Cleary & BJones

Everyone ditching Fifita seems like the perfect week to bring him in.