NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

rhinoceroo wrote:

Cleary and Haas here.

I like that mate. I have Cleary currently and Haas or Tapine. I am looking at Robson at hooker or Mahoney. If I carry Robson I won’t be able to have Haas and a Cotter or Tapine so onoy 1 gun mid.

Gilbert if starting lock at Dolphins I think he will get around 60mins tbh and could avg high 40’s he’s gonna do so much tackling he is DPP as well and priced at 39 I see 8-10 points upside. I have my eye on Elliot as well but he’s about 40k more expensive and has no DPP.

Also on the Willie Mason podcast my mate said he had some mail that Ryan Sutton will be the glue for the Dogs similar to the Josh Jackson role and that TPJ will play the impact role. Apparently Ciraldo is keen on Sutton. If Sutton is 13 he should get 50 maybe 55mins and with a ppm of close to 0.85 he could avg 42-45 and he’s priced at 34. I have been big on him all pre season at 491k he is. At least if he’s not relevant to start with I think he will be at some point. Be interesting to see if this mail Mason has is correct or not.

What are people’s thoughts on Erin Clark? My concern is we don’t have much much sample size of him at lock and he may also play a few mins at hooker where he doesn’t score as well.

At this stage my back 5 is

Alamoti Thompson
Miller Savage Perham

Talau TMM and Sloan on my interchange. If Talau doesn’t play round 1 I’m not sure what I’ll do for for centre cover. My concern is my back 5 may be too weak and maybe it’s only worth putting on one of Miller or Savage and I should get a Ponga or Walsh to partner one of them? Or am I overthinking it @rhinoceroo?

I’ll be watching Horse and Guler close this weekend as well with mins up for grabs with Elliot and Sutton having left and the fact Papali’i mins are on the decline as he’s getting older and the fact I don’t think Whitehead plays 80 most weeks. There could be 50-55mins available for Horse and 40ish mins for Guler off the bench. Guler avg 42mins off the bench in 2020 and 21 avg 36 both years. He’s priced at 25.

I’m keen to watch Wilton too.

Latest draft:

Robson
Tapine Cotter Sutton
Loiero Garner
Cleary Burton
Thompson Alamoti
Miller Perham Suaali

Cheese Boyd Hopgood Momoisea
TMM Matamua Talau/G. Jennings Sloan

69k spare

Rabbits21 wrote:I’ll be watching Horse and Guler close this weekend as well with mins up for grabs with Elliot and Sutton having left and the fact Papali’i mins are on the decline as he’s getting older and the fact I don’t think Whitehead plays 80 most weeks. There could be 50-55mins available for Horse and 40ish mins for Guler off the bench. Guler avg 42mins off the bench in 2020 and 21 avg 36 both years. He’s priced at 25.

I’m keen to watch Wilton too.

Hard to tell with the Raiders from this trial, I think Whitehead and CHN aren't there, as well as Tapine? CHN in particular could be a spanner in the works for Hors. Expect Mooney to be fantasy relevant at some point too, if not from week one.

On your other question, I don't know, Ponga and/or Miller in and out of my team. Doubt I'd run both of them but will probably have one Ponga an HIA risk and Miller a gamble who hasn't proved himself in a poor side.

Bethany_B wrote:

Cheers, I figured I'd stack the MIDs and not go too heavy on the PODs - Meaney is my only real one and if he doesn't fire early then I can easily just drop him down to a cheapie going up if needed.

I think a lot of people will get caught out not owning guys like Haas and Murray early, just like how a lot of people didn't own Haas or Ipap at the start of last year and were scrambling to get them in.

Dont mind the Meaney pod pick. Always fun to have one gut pick in your squad. Im thinking of doing the same with Suaalii assuming i can pick him as a ctr

Mulvy wrote:No one for Ponga or Turbo?

Injury risk, for both, I get it.

But Turbo averaged 83 the season before last. 83.

Ponga is cheaper and has a ceiling of banner++ and a nice draw.

Any takers?

If they are named round 1 both will be in my squad. Comfortably the best options at their price point makes it hard to ignore

rhinoceroo wrote:

Nicholls is uninspiring Tolmanesque tackle-his-way-to-ten-points-of-value if he gets 40-45 minutes. Didn't know Hetho was injured... thought he was a possibility for Newcastle's edge? If not I (she) can scour for another mid plodder. When you put your team upside down it doesn't matter so much if your third mid is only scoring 35s, you'd probably be happy with that from your third WFB.

Whichever of Nicholls/JWal gets the starting spot looks to have value based on past fantasy history

All this talk of gun centres feels like I'm being trolled. I'd much rather spend 500k on a MID

I will never spend bulk money on a centre that is actually playing centre. Madness.

my tv broke wrote:I will never spend bulk money on a centre that is actually playing centre. Madness.

Normally I don't, but Holmes, although pricey, has a great draw without the early byes and is a good scorer.

Mulvy wrote:I'm looking for value outside my captain and VC. Which begs the question...Who's your captain and Vice? For me it's Cleary for sure. And then... not so sure. Probably my best mid (Haas/Cotter) maybe Burton?

I will have Cleary or Hynes as captain

I'm thinking of Cook as VC, but Murray seems solid too. Guys like Haas, Cotter, Grant might do OK, but I think that they offer just a touch less security around points than the others.

my tv broke wrote:I will never spend bulk money on a centre that is actually playing centre. Madness.

I will always think about doing what people say they will never do. I translate that last quote as "Go on! I dare you!"

For me Manu (C), Milford (VC)

Milchcow wrote:

I will have Cleary or Hynes as captain

I'm thinking of Cook as VC, but Murray seems solid too. Guys like Haas, Cotter, Grant might do OK, but I think that they offer just a touch less security around points than the others.

Haas is easily in the top bracket for VC, has maintained high average for 4 years running, excluding injuries his lowest average (last year) is 58.3 and he was under injury cloud most of last year

2019 - 67.8 (63.9 mins) (66.9 in 61.3 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2020 - 72.2 (71.9 mins) (66.9 in 62.9 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2021 - 64.1 (62.4 mins) (61.7 in 61.8 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2022 - 58.3 (63.8 mins) (57.9 in 62.4 mins excluding 70+ mins)

Camo123 wrote:

Haas is easily in the top bracket for VC, has maintained high average for 4 years running, excluding injuries his lowest average (last year) is 58.3 and he was under injury cloud most of last year

2019 - 67.8 (63.9 mins) (66.9 in 61.3 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2020 - 72.2 (71.9 mins) (66.9 in 62.9 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2021 - 64.1 (62.4 mins) (61.7 in 61.8 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2022 - 58.3 (63.8 mins) (57.9 in 62.4 mins excluding 70+ mins)

I'm sold

Normally im the number 1 fan of starting with cheap ctrs. I was picking cheap ctrs back when everyone was paying 500k to start with Kerrod Holland.
I just dont like the cheapy options this year unless Alamoti, Te Whare are named.
Im open to starting with a 500k ctr with good job security and riding the wave. I think there will be enough cheap 2rf to still have 3 solid mids.
Last season we had Crichton, Tago, Penisini. They all had good job security, played for good teams with plenty of attacking upside.

Motherfuckers getting all het up about players who haven't even been picked yet....@rhinoceroo is on the money about not actually wasting brain cells choosing between base price players until they get named R1

The Cleary + Hynes thing is tricky, they are both 'keepers' but if you pick both then you may be down a couple of halves through the Bye/SOO time and you may have to make a decision on trading out one of them for a while, or alternatively, carrying some extra halves cover on your bench. the 'only your 13 score' aspect makes it trickier. Last year there were plenty of viable WFB/HLF (Hynes included) options so there seemed to be more flexibility

Camo123 wrote:

Haas is easily in the top bracket for VC, has maintained high average for 4 years running, excluding injuries his lowest average (last year) is 58.3 and he was under injury cloud most of last year

2019 - 67.8 (63.9 mins) (66.9 in 61.3 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2020 - 72.2 (71.9 mins) (66.9 in 62.9 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2021 - 64.1 (62.4 mins) (61.7 in 61.8 mins excluding 70+ mins)
2022 - 58.3 (63.8 mins) (57.9 in 62.4 mins excluding 70+ mins)

Depends how much his scores were impacted by his injury. (also if you think his off-field issues will impact performance)

But hypothetically, if you accept that Tino is a good option because of his role change and the way he ended last year, then the same logic would suggest Haas is not great because of the way he ended last year.

Mulvy wrote:No one for Ponga or Turbo?

Injury risk, for both, I get it.

But Turbo averaged 83 the season before last. 83.

Ponga is cheaper and has a ceiling of banner++ and a nice draw.

Any takers?

Haven't made a team yet, or even looked that closely at prices, but all I can think is there's so many cheap WFB that look likely to play R1 that people are spending cash elsewhere.

Because Turbo even with the tax looks a steal (similar to Pappy last year). And Ponga I think looks good too.

Injury risk is a bit overstated I think as Turbo will have his USA bionic hammies by then, and Ponga has had a number of HIAs but also a full offseason of rest. Keary and Matterson seem to be coping with their concussion history fine. Cordner and Hipgrave retired. You can't pick it and I don't think you can avoid every player on those grounds

robelgordo wrote:

Haven't made a team yet, or even looked that closely at prices, but all I can think is there's so many cheap WFB that look likely to play R1 that people are spending cash elsewhere.

Because Turbo even with the tax looks a steal (similar to Pappy last year). And Ponga I think looks good too.

Injury risk is a bit overstated I think as Turbo will have his USA bionic hammies by then, and Ponga has had a number of HIAs but also a full offseason of rest. Keary and Matterson seem to be coping with their concussion history fine. Cordner and Hipgrave retired. You can't pick it and I don't think you can avoid every player on those grounds

Aren't they both currently injured?

If Turbo lines up R1 I think you have to take the risk...the question will be do you go one or do you go both? If Ponga gets DPP that would be very handy.

With the Manly bye in round 2, I think I am happy starting without Trbo, and bringing him in round 3 if he looks the goods.

Even if he guns it and scores a century, you have 2 weeks to plan the trade, and he won't rise that much in value after just 1 week.
Worth it to have a look at him and see what his fitness is like. Unless he can do something in the trials to remove any doubt.