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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 5 - Assemble the base price players

    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:57 pm

    mickspicks wrote:1/ Cook - E.Katoa - Hopgood

    or

    2/ H. Grant - Hopgood - B. Smith

    There is also a world where I could have option two + E. Katoa by not running with Sutton.
    Why not just remove Hopgood if he is in both options?
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    Post by mickspicks Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:05 am

    The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
    Why not just remove Hopgood if he is in both options?

    It looks more pretty and helps my cooked mind visualise my team on a Saturday night
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Feb 26, 2023 12:08 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

    I have one final factor, choosing players I like watching/want to cheer for

    I find this important. We're supposed to enjoy this game. Would get more enjoyment (and frustration counts as enjoyment, right?) from picking a TPJ than a Tolman.

    Meanwhile, if you are accountancy/finance aligned, there's probably a detailed calculation you could do with ten years data over the optimum amount of cash to leave in the bank in your starting team, and the expected value of that cash, that allows you to jump easily onto the lowest BE players you missed in the first two/three rounds. 40k is worth a lot more than 40k if it allows you to go from HSS (scored 10, new BE 25) to Talau (scored 50, new BE -10) for example.

    Haven't done anything approaching a calculation on that, but definitely want to run a sizable bank this year to begin with.
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:47 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:
    I find this important. We're supposed to enjoy this game. Would get more enjoyment (and frustration counts as enjoyment, right?) from picking a TPJ than a Tolman

    One reason why I'm taking a punt on NAS, players with attacking upside are my weakness in fantasy, even if they're more risky. To me, fantasy's no fun if you aren't taking any risks, even if you rank lower overall as a result. That said NAS is my only real punt at the moment, the rest of my expensive players are pretty straight bat if you ask me (Cleary, Murray, Haas, Doueihi, Holmes)
    sajjos
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    Post by sajjos Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:03 am

    Lost in translation is what I think when I see the response to Booze's post from the intended audience.
    Antipodean1
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    Post by Antipodean1 Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:13 am

    sajjos wrote:Lost in translation is what I think when I see the response to Booze's post from the intended audience.

    Everyone is built differently, and therefore so are their teams, for the most part.

    Some look up every player's stats and use spreadsheets, bye planners etc etc, and some just go with their gut, and everyone fits along that line somewhere.

    The most important thing for me is enjoying yourself, loving the footy, and bantering with your mates, whether that be at work, at home, or on this forum.

    Good luck to everyone this season, bring on TLT!
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    Post by sajjos Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:04 am

    So true.
    Can't wait for TLT.
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    Post by Guest Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:11 am

    sajjos wrote:Lost in translation is what I think when I see the response to Booze's post from the intended audience.

    Haha that was part of the reason for the initial large reply
    99% of the game is watching it and having fun so focus on that

    Just like the only limit to 230k players is 21, that is the rule that matters

    TLDR you can min/max all you want but at least focus on the important stuff

    Once you go down a rabbit hole well who knows where it ends
    Next thing you know you turn up to team training wearing your old clubs gear after a bad acid trip in Europe and start talking astronomy
    That’s fantasy for ya
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:23 am

    Boozecluez wrote:I remember being part of the all the discussion and calculations of a 'price of a trade' back in the day so still laugh when told things in concrete or XYZ player isn't worth it. Maybe I have been playing this game too long or getting old but it's funny seeing it recycled.
    Then somehow every year finish probably top 10 in overall team value (without blowing my own trumpet) something I am decent at ignoring this as it all balances out in the end.
    The discussions with multiple people in my old trials and tribulations threads, using graphs and the data available recorded there along with multiple spreadsheets to see if it was all worth it was probably futile in the end.
    Private message discussions with the godfather of fantasy stats Steve Nicholls (RIP) even discussing said thing who was a big sharer and wanted to look into this further and expand on it, but ultimately there were too many variables and a lot of luck involved to come to an exact conclusion.

    Do you know what I learnt from all of this?

    Wait until TLT, choose your cheapies, captain and must haves then have fun working out how to fill in the remaining 6 or 7 spots
    It was fun breaking everything down, and so is not caring too for the more recent years
    But the results end up the same regardless so just have fun and don't overthink things
    When you have autopick teams/template teams/hooker experiment team/Half experiment team last year still going well then it's not that important who you choose to start the year
    Or maybe its all just luck so disregard the above too


    SN was a true gentleman and a great of the have game - sorely missed.
    One of the areas he explored that I thought was really interesting (that few delve into) is the psychology of the game.
    Understanding your own gameplay, your internal biases, confirmations bias etc, the presumptions we make on things we've learnt from last year (where we may take the wrong learning from what actually happened vs whether it was oir strategy/process that was flawed), as well as an understanding around POD selections (timing, value, appropriatness) - which to this day appears misunderstood by the masses.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:29 am

    Boozecluez wrote:

    Haha that was part of the reason for the initial large reply
    99% of the game is watching it and having fun so focus on that

    Just like the only limit to 230k players is 21, that is the rule that matters

    TLDR you can min/max all you want but at least focus on the important stuff

    Once you go down a rabbit hole well who knows where it ends
    Next thing you know you turn up to team training wearing your old clubs gear after a bad acid trip in Europe and start talking astronomy
    That’s fantasy for ya

    It's funny the whole max number of $230k players.
    It's really about the quality of them and whether they are slow burn, poor js etc .
    Frankly, if you could put together ten sub $300k players that would each average around 40 with moderate js, then it's would be "anchors up, let's go".

    It's really when you have five basement OSB's with questionable js that there's a problem IMO.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:37 am

    The value of a trade thing has always been more complicated than a pure number value in my opinion.
    Often the trade may have other cross benefits, adjustments to team balance, coverage, as well as positioning yourself for other more impacting trades, or the speed of value growth.

    I finding it intriguing what points value one might place on a trade. For instance, if you could swap one of your trades at the start of the season for a points start, how many points would you need to agree to start one trade less than everyone else?
    ytsb
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    Post by ytsb Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:40 am

    Every single year I go the guns and cows and I either finish great from the get go because I have the right cows, or shite because I have the wrong cows. In order to learn from my mistakes it seems reasonable to go gun s and cows again for the 7th year in a row.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:46 am

    ytsb wrote:Every single year I go the guns and cows and I either finish great from the get go because I have the right cows, or shite because I have the wrong cows. In order to learn from my mistakes it seems reasonable to go gun s and cows again for the 7th year in a row.

    I think it’s good to actually have 1 risky mid ranger (e.g EButcher, Wilton, NAS, Hastings) as if they do elevate to expectations it’s a win but if they fail you can use them to downgrade to whoever you miss in early rounds (Sexton a good example from 2022)

    Last year I had practically full guns + cows at start and both failed and ended up downgrading Fifita to fund other trades because no-one else could fund other trades
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    Post by ytsb Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:52 am

    It's a shame that stuff on the forum is wiped from 2021 backwards. Booze left some great advice in my 2021 team tracker and I was keen to re-read it.
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    Post by Moanaman Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:01 am

    Well this gave me a chuckle this morning

    https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/11bw4z5/good_start_to_the_season/
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:23 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:

    Not bad mate but personally for me running with 7 guys at 250k is far too risky for my liking especially in a year with all these byes now meaning squad depth is likely more important.

    We’ve all been given some solid gold in the last few pages and I don’t think you’ve registered

    7 250k players is not risky in itself. It’s down to who those players are.

    Be interested to know the 4-5 you rate up there and the 2-3 you don’t? Rather than a gross number.

    For me personally, I don’t like AKP and Luke there, but if you make it Warbrick and AN Other it might fly.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:23 am

    ytsb wrote:It's a shame that stuff on the forum is wiped from 2021 backwards. Booze left some great advice in my 2021 team tracker and I was keen to re-read it.

    Nooooooo is it?

    Should’ve archived some stuff
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:25 am

    Hope everyone's excited for the 2023 NRL season Smile

    I wanted to start doing weekly videos to cover punting (looking at first and anytime try scorer markets) as well as some fantasy, supercoach + draftstars analysis. I'll do them in separate videos from TLT Round 1 but I wanted to do a practice run going through all the preseason news for predicted round 1 teams etc.

    Check it out in the link and below and let me know if you've got any suggestions on making it better!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1CIsyHGlW8
    Johnny Cash
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    Post by Johnny Cash Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:27 am

    I was introduced to fantasy by some old league buddies and stumbled across the original Renegades(before their acrimonious split) and was quite taken by SN and his musings.
    He echoed the sentiments of Booze's comments earlier, do your research, compile your lists and then be prepared for some surprises on TLT.

    Most of all, have some fucking fun doing it and don't stress too much.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:30 am

    sajjos wrote:Lost in translation is what I think when I see the response to Booze's post from the intended audience.

    lol!

      Current date/time is Sat Nov 23, 2024 10:24 am