NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 18 - Catchy Thread Title

mattnz wrote:

For 2 weeks in a row, Kiraz PPM without any LBs, Tries or Try Assists would have beaten both of Walsh's scores which included them.

Do you take the guy capable of realistically scoring an average of 45 without any tries, try assists, or line breaks, but is also very capable of getting them on top of that, or the guy that needs to get them almost every week just to hit that same score?

You take Tom Trbojevic for 5k less than Kiraz...

(I mean, good luck with Kiraz, but you have to admit that was a blind spot right there)

MF wrote:Is Robson worth the money? Im thinking of biting the bullet and getting him

Great first half, terrible second half. Assuming he misses Origin he should be everyone’s R13 hooker

An underpriced Api or Brailey in a few weeks could be cheaper hok alternatives

MF wrote:Is Robson worth the money? Im thinking of biting the bullet and getting him

I was planning to jump off Grant for him around Melbourne’s bye, after he dropped some ‘slow start’ cash but looks like they might be the same price

rhinoceroo wrote:

You take Tom Trbojevic for 5k less than Kiraz...

Ditto

rhinoceroo wrote:

You take Tom Trbojevic for 5k less than Kiraz...

Every time I own Turbo he is shit, (bought him after his massive price drop last year), every time I don't own him he goes massive (didnt have him in 2021).

Last season I got a 23 then 33 and season ending injury.

He looked like shit Turbo in game 1, lasted about 60 minutes. Looking like 2021 Turbo now and probably bring him in, while obviously missing Walsh.

mattnz wrote:

For 2 weeks in a row, Kiraz PPM without any LBs, Tries or Try Assists would have beaten both of Walsh's scores which included them.

Do you take the guy capable of realistically scoring an average of 45 without any tries, try assists, or line breaks, but is also very capable of getting them on top of that, or the guy that needs to get them almost every week just to hit that same score?

No idea why this has to be an argument over choosing one but I will play along (Even on a late saturday night)

I am using simple logic, based on recent stats (Your theory of regency bias) that they both rely on attacking stats and both play WFB
Tries are base stats for both in 2023

I can't use last years 'most recent stats' as this won't help Kiraz so have to stick to the 2 game sample of 2023 only
I am unsure how your theory works on recency bias is so I hope I have interpreted it correctly by using this year only

So again I stand by my conclusion both are attacking players that rely on attacking plays
You buy the one you like to watch and have fun watching them score tries and slapsies runs
Ride the highs and lows and it will all average out in the end

For me personally I just choose players I like to watch but can understand if you research everything
I am still learning

KIRAZ (Last 5 games of 2022)


WALSH (Last 5 games of 2022)

Surely Brooks and Utoikamanu outscore Alamoti and HSS by 20 points or more?

I need to win my first head-to-head of the season

Contrastinghobby wrote:

No idea why this has to be an argument over choosing one but I will play along (Even on a late saturday night)

I am using simple logic, based on recent stats (Your theory of regency bias) that they both rely on attacking stats and both play WFB
Tries are base stats for both in 2023

I can't use last years 'most recent stats' as this won't help Kiraz so have to stick to the 2 game sample of 2023 only
I am unsure how your theory works on recency bias is so I hope I have interpreted it correctly by using this year only

So again I stand by my conclusion both are attacking players that rely on attacking plays
You buy the one you like to watch and have fun watching them score tries and slapsies runs

KIRAZ (Last 5 games of 2022)


WALSH (Last 5 games of 2022)

Hilarious, you are missing that he averaged 47 in his rookie season up to round 20, and producing much higher output so far this season than the start of last season, even without tries and under a new coach that is clearly encouraging his fantasy relevant style of play, which was clearly missing at the end of the previous season under a different coach.

mattnz wrote:

Every time I own Turbo he is shit, (bought him after his massive price drop last year), every time I don't own him he goes massive (didnt have him in 2021).

Last season I got a 23 then 33 and season ending injury.

He looked like shit Turbo in game 1, lasted about 60 minutes. Looking like 2021 Turbo now and probably bring him in, while obviously missing Walsh.

? Do you watch the games or just the stats? Turbo was the best Sea-Eagle on the park not named Daly in week 1, just wasn’t on the right end of the point-scoring stats like he was in Week 2

509/11c

I swear every year i’m well behind everyone (158 in FOG), it can’t be that I just haven't learnt anything about this game, there must be something I’m just not doing haha 

Will reveal what it is when I find out

syn13 wrote:

? Do you watch the games or just the stats? Turbo was the best Sea-Eagle on the park not named Daly in week 1, just wasn’t on the right end of the point-scoring stats like he was in Week 2

I watched the game. He looked ok, but came off early and didnt look close to 2021 Turbo in game 1. Once bitten, twice shy. My comment at the end of the game was that Turbo looked short of a gallop, not close to 2021 form.

This week was very different.

mattnz wrote:
under a new coach that is clearly encouraging his fantasy relevant style of play, which was clearly missing at the end of the previous season under a different coach.

I've forgotten which one of Walsh or Kiraz we're talking about

Updates for second game

Holmes 47
Robson 74
Cotter 38
Lolo 37

TMM 52
SJ 59
Egan 52
Harris 51

rhinoceroo wrote:

I've forgotten which one of Walsh or Kiraz we're talking about

Interested to hear people's expectations for Walsh for a season average.

I have him at mid 40s, without kicking and goal kicking, a massive step up from last season, and his breakout massive rookie season, which calculated to 38 points per game under today's point scoring. That places him below keeper tier, similar to Miller for more cost, probably playing origin.

Are others expecting him to average low 50s the same as he has started the year, which would mean a 20+ try 20+ assist year?

rhinoceroo wrote:

I've forgotten which one of Walsh or Kiraz we're talking about

mattnz wrote:

Interested to hear people's expectations for Walsh for a season average.

I have him at mid 40s, without kicking and goal kicking, a massive step up from last season, and his breakout massive rookie season, which calculated to 38 points per game under today's point scoring. That places him below keeper tier, similar to Miller for more cost, probably playing origin.

Are others expecting him to average low 50s the same as he has started the year, which would mean a 20+ try 20+ assist year?

Mid 40s sounds about right to me. I feel Kiraz scores similar to be honest
What are your expectations for Kiraz? out of curiosity

rhinoceroo wrote:

I've forgotten which one of Walsh or Kiraz we're talking about

Are you saying I have to buy both now? This is an expensive year

mattnz wrote:

Interested to hear people's expectations for Walsh for a season average.

I have him at mid 40s, without kicking and goal kicking, a massive step up from last season, and his breakout massive rookie season, which calculated to 38 points per game under today's point scoring. That places him below keeper tier, similar to Miller for more cost, probably playing origin.

Are others expecting him to average low 50s the same as he has started the year, which would mean a 20+ try 20+ assist year?

I think he will be one of the top 4 fullback options by years end, Millers scores will fade away along with the Knights chances.

Contrastinghobby wrote:

Mid 40s sounds about right to me. I feel Kiraz scores similar to be honest
What are your expectations for Kiraz? out of curiosity

I have calculated Kiraz based on 180 running meters, 5 TBs, 3 OFs (career average 2.5, 5 in each game so far this season), 5 points for tackles net of misses, which would put him at 45 average, plus any tries, try assists, line breaks, TOs etc. How much to add is the difficult bit, really depends on how the Bulldogs perform, but should have him at a 50+ average, hopefully more.