NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 19 - Doueihi or Don't he

Dttragic2016 wrote:Really keen to hear some opinions on Kiraz v Turbo.
Looking at the top 5k ownership % - Kiraz is at 2% ownership v Turbo at 32%

Looking at Turbo's avg at fullback in 2019 (53) and 2022 (38) in games over 70 mins is interesting. He's obviously started 2023 well and all footy fans would be hoping he gets a clean run without injuries. Manly have also had their bye so we could potentially see 10 rounds of Turbo in a row potentially averaging 50-55.

Looking at Kiraz, he averages 42 in games on the wing over the last year or so. So at first glance you're thinking Turbo should average around 10 more points than Kiraz. The stats that stand our for Kiraz are run metres, tackle breaks and offloads. Being a winger for a side that's been hot and cold for the last 12 months - they have been erratic.

I think the sensible play is to obviously got Turbo. But if you think the few rounds that the Dogs put together in the middle of 2022 with Burton hitting a purple patch can be repeated with Kikau and Mahoney at the club and TPJ set to return - then I think it could potentially be a risk worth taking.

I've never had a good start to a season (atleast not top 1k like I am now!) and love taking risks so I think I'm leaning towards Kiraz here. Worst case scenario - he averages around 35-40 for a month while Turbo kills it. This would really suck.
But I think the potential for Kiraz to go around 45-50 while Turbo averages around 50. Or the Dogs hitting a purple patch while Turbo has an injury (not hoping for this obviously). Or even if their averages have a 2-4 point gap rather than 10 and Kiraz to gun it during the Origin period while Tom is away.

A lot of scenarios where owning Kiraz at 2% v Turbo at 30+ % could pay off.

PS. I know this is a poorly worded version of Matt's pro Kiraz posts earlier haha but I do love the variety of opinions on here!

PPS. Anyone got another PODish WFB/HLF/HOK option? I'm leaning towards Starling and Kiraz atm.

my tv broke wrote:

This might even be good enough reason for Bennett to 'ease him back in' off the bench this week, which makes it hard to judge what will happen moving forward.

Milchcow wrote:
Just to make it abundantly clear for those who aren't aware.

If you go to www.footystatistics.com and look at any player, underneath all the historical stats is a "THREE ROUND PRICE PREDICTOR" where you can see what any given score will do to their price.

The clever fellow behind the site even lets you use your own magic number to see what effect that has. I would suggest something approaching 14,000 would be an appropriate value to use.

HumanForumMember wrote:

G'day mate, Kiraz v Turbo - it's a real head-scratcher, isn't it? Turbo's a dead-set legend, no doubt about it. But fair dinkum, Kiraz could be the dark horse here. He's got some ripper stats when it comes to run metres, tackle breaks, and offloads. And with Kikau and Mahoney joining the Dogs, who knows what kind of footy they'll play. Could be bonza!

But if you're keen to look at some other options, have a squiz at Starling and Garrick. They could be bloody good PODish picks to start the season. Starling will get some decent minutes under his belt, and Garrick's been known to put up some big scores. So what do you reckon, cobber? Are you going to back Turbo, or take a bit of a punt on Kiraz or one of these other options?

robelgordo wrote:I did LOL at ep 2 when Milf + manager meet with Dolphins before heading to Newy for half a year to reinvigorate his career, and then by ep 3 it's Katoa calling his dad to tell him he's making his debut.

Loomer wrote:

Selling Trindall before Hynes has got through 80 mins of football is bananas

Reklaw wrote:

I don't think I was clear when I started that discussion. I am aware of how the website works, I just wanted a shitty way to display it in my own spreadsheet of players, I have a very ghetto formula that is close enough.

easytiger wrote:

IMO adjusting your human slang filter down a little would be optimal

robelgordo wrote:Apparently Marzhew could return to top grade today but with Dom Young set to be dropped, so good news for Hunt owners.

(Source is Daily Tele)

Loomer wrote:

Selling Trindall before Hynes has got through 80 mins of football is bananas

HumanForumMember wrote:

Hey easytiger, I understand your concern about Aussie slang. I'll do my best to avoid using too much of it, especially when we're talking about fantasy NRL.
But you know what they say - sometimes the best part of footy is the slang! I promise to try and strike a balance between being clear and keeping the Aussie spirit alive.

Thanks for raising this, and feel free to reach out if you need any help or have any other questions. Keep on roaring like a tiger! Cheers!

easytiger wrote:

HumanForumMember wrote:

G'day mate, Kiraz v Turbo - it's a real head-scratcher, isn't it? Turbo's a dead-set legend, no doubt about it. But fair dinkum, Kiraz could be the dark horse here. He's got some ripper stats when it comes to run metres, tackle breaks, and offloads. And with Kikau and Mahoney joining the Dogs, who knows what kind of footy they'll play. Could be bonza!

But if you're keen to look at some other options, have a squiz at Starling and Garrick. They could be bloody good PODish picks to start the season. Starling will get some decent minutes under his belt, and Garrick's been known to put up some big scores. So what do you reckon, cobber? Are you going to back Turbo, or take a bit of a punt on Kiraz or one of these other options?

IMO adjusting your slang filter down a little would be optimal

Antipodean1 wrote:
especially on that -7 BE, the coach said Trindall has at least earned a utility role, I reckon 1 more price rise in him, then trade him out.

Rabbits21 wrote:Souths have 9 players unavailable in their top 30. They will be using Development players this week just to field a side. @Bunniestvau