NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 61 - Picking origin reps for bye planning

Stats, Breakevens and more
https://footystatistics.com/

Top 1000 team breakdown
https://yafss.com/


R16 Breakevens

BE's:

2023 Team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/e1ovaxv0tqj6lhz/2023+Team+Planner+v0.1.xlsm/file

Bye chart



Bye Chart 2





Purple Monkey Dishwasher


2023 Lord of the Byes
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2195-lord-of-the-byes-3

2023 Autofill
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2068-2023-autofill-league

2023 Community Team
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/f12-celeb-community-team

2023 Fantasy Draft
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2069-nrlff-2023-fantasy-draft-league

2023 Fantasy Fantasy
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2088-fantasy-fantasy-2023

2023 Late Team Mail
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2106-nrl-team-lists-and-late-mail-2023

2023 Post of the Year nominations
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2145-2023-post-of-the-year-nominations

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standard-issue wrote:1

Contrastinghobby wrote:

standard-issue wrote:1

Well played!

standard-issue wrote:

  Well played!

Haha got hit with a robson,moses,cook bye trifecta it looks like this week but I feel like it could be worse so worry about it tomorrow
TLT will be carnage
Back to diablo 4

941, only played 16 with Billy Smith out, and sliding down the ranks. A bunch selected for Origin. I'm royally fooked.

Fox reporting Hynes out, Moses in. Robson in. TPJ/Young out and they say Leniu and either RCG or DSaf in.

The Robson origin selection makes Jake Simpkin the obvious play for lots here

I already have Turpin so its a bit fuzzier. If I get him now can still get him for minimum, but then not likely to play him until R18. Can hold off and hope he doesn't go too nuts this week and is still fairly affordable in R18 after his bye.
That, and whether to go Loiero to Hynes (already have 2 playing halves next week) the big decisions this week.

Likely team

1 James Tedesco Roosters
2 Josh Addo-Carr Bulldogs
3 Latrell Mitchell Rabbitohs
4 Tom Trbojevic Sea Eagles
5 Brian To’o Panthers
6 Jarome Luai Panthers
7 Mitchell Moses Eels
8 Payne Haas Broncos
9 Damien Cook Rabbitohs
10 Junior Paulo Eels
11 Tyson Frizell Knights
12 Hudson Young Raiders
13 Isaah Yeo Panthers

14 Reece Robson Cowboys
15 Cameron Murray Rabbitohs
16 Liam Martin Panthers
17 Stefano Utoikamanu Tigers

18 Stephen Crichton Panthers
19 Keaon Koloamatangi Rabbitohs


From Raiders story…

Milchcow wrote:
The Robson origin selection makes Jake Simpkin the obvious play for lots here

I already have Turpin so its a bit fuzzier. If I get him now can still get him for minimum, but then not likely to play him until R18. Can hold off and hope he doesn't go too nuts this week and is still fairly affordable in R18 after his bye.
That, and whether to go Loiero to Hynes (already have 2 playing halves next week) the big decisions this week.

The problem with getting Simpkin and Hynes (for me, and I'd imagine for others too) is the number of Sharks/Tigers/Dogs I'll be holding in R17.

Have Bula, iPap, Preston, Oloapu, three of whom are probably keepers. Then add those Simpkin and Hynes. Take away Oloapu, who'll be redundant in R19 for SJ owners and can be sold post-16 even though he'll still be making good money. That's still five and playing short even if the Origin mob back up.

So, is the extra number in R16/19 worth the hit in R17? Probably...

Just caught up on today's game and the chat on here. Got 8 trades left and 9 or 10 players likely for next round. Simpkin a no brainer with api out.

Should then have the cash to bring in a gun who's playing next round but no idea who that is lol.

Line for origin atm is -4.5. I know it's origin but how the hell do NSW win game 2?

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:Likely team

1 James Tedesco Roosters
2 Josh Addo-Carr Bulldogs
3 Latrell Mitchell Rabbitohs
4 Tom Trbojevic Sea Eagles
5 Brian To’o Panthers
6 Jarome Luai Panthers
7 Mitchell Moses Eels
8 Payne Haas Broncos
9 Damien Cook Rabbitohs
10 Junior Paulo Eels
11 Tyson Frizell Knights
12 Hudson Young Raiders
13 Isaah Yeo Panthers

14 Reece Robson Cowboys
15 Cameron Murray Rabbitohs
16 Liam Martin Panthers
17 Stefano Utoikamanu Tigers

18 Stephen Crichton Panthers
19 Keaon Koloamatangi Rabbitohs


From Raiders story…

As a Moses non-owner, I hope that's legit.

Freddy is probably too shit scared of Stuart to drop the one and only raider, in reality he performed worst than all of them.

Khany wrote:Freddy is probably too shit scared of Stuart to drop the one and only raider, in reality he performed worst than all of them.

Sydney Morning Herald, who are normally more reliable than most, have that team.

Moses out would be a massive OUCH but somewhat expected? Can deal with it fine though, was planning on holding Cleary through these rounds anyways so it's like for like. KNiko --> Simpkin and Tapine or Robson to Hynes it is.

I will have a problem in R17 aside from all the issues with total squad depth, namely that I have three halves (SJ, Hynes, Oloapu) and two of them have the bye in R17, meaning I need to buy a half either this week or next. Given that Moses is likely playing Origin, that rules him out and I'm down to the following options. Thoughts?

Option 1: Kalyn Ponga. A bit late on him, and we know that he's a walking concussion risk, but on the other hand he'll be about 500k, dual WFB/HLF and has enormous upside. I've been burned by him so many times but even at 500k there is a value proposition there, as a high upside 17th/18th man.

Option 2: Cameron Munster. He's always been one of the best when it comes to fantasy HLFs and being in Origin isn't ideal, but when it comes down to it, I don't technically need another HLF for 16 or 19 anyway, as I can play Hynes and Oloapu in 16, and then Hynes and SJ in 19 (or Oloapu if Hynes gets his spot back). At ~730k (after hitting his BE this week), it seems like round 17 is prime time to get on Munster as long as he backs up that week.

Cloves or Gloves.. Garlick or Hands

Kinda tempted by them with Simpkin no longer ideal.. but I already burned trades screwing with regular benchies. Moses, Simpkin and Manu were my primary targets with Robson a back-up option, but seems like only Manu is still available. Even Cogger is redundant as an option now too with Hynes and Oloapu.

Tradeout candidates Talau, Te Whare and Bird. Bank at 575k. Might aswell hold Bird and hope he's back for Rd 17. Talau a pretty good chance of going negatives, but could hold and hope for 10+ and punt next week. Te Whare could be a decent CTR/WFB cover for cheap if Brenko's injured, but Wayno seems hellbent on picking him regardless.

Maybe just Te Whare to Manu and play with 11 (potentially 9.9 with Talau).. Sounds dumb when I write. Probably trade Talau to a HK.

WT Winfield wrote:Cloves or Gloves.. Garlick or Hands

Kinda tempted by them with Simpkin no longer ideal.. but I already burned trades screwing with regular benchies. Moses, Simpkin and Manu were my primary targets with Robson a back-up option, but seems like only Manu is still available. Even Cogger is redundant as an option now too with Hynes and Oloapu.

Tradeout candidates Talau, Te Whare and Bird. Bank at 575k. Might aswell hold Bird and hope he's back for Rd 17. Talau a pretty good chance of going negatives, but could hold and hope for 10+ and punt next week. Te Whare could be a decent CTR/WFB cover for cheap if Brenko's injured, but Wayno seems hellbent on picking him regardless.

Maybe just Te Whare to Manu and play with 11 (potentially 9.9 with Talau).. Sounds dumb when I write. Probably trade Talau to a HK.

What's up.with Simpkin?

Fox Sports and SMH have the same expected team now, I think no need to wait until 11am.

Stunning fall from grace for Hynes, boon for fantasy owners.

Bethany_B wrote:I will have a problem in R17 aside from all the issues with total squad depth, namely that I have three halves (SJ, Hynes, Oloapu) and two of them have the bye in R17, meaning I need to buy a half either this week or next. Given that Moses is likely playing Origin, that rules him out and I'm down to the following options. Thoughts?

Option 1: Kalyn Ponga. A bit late on him, and we know that he's a walking concussion risk, but on the other hand he'll be about 500k, dual WFB/HLF and has enormous upside. I've been burned by him so many times but even at 500k there is a value proposition there, as a high upside 17th/18th man.

Option 2: Cameron Munster. He's always been one of the best when it comes to fantasy HLFs and being in Origin isn't ideal, but when it comes down to it, I don't technically need another HLF for 16 or 19 anyway, as I can play Hynes and Oloapu in 16, and then Hynes and SJ in 19 (or Oloapu if Hynes gets his spot back). At ~730k (after hitting his BE this week), it seems like round 17 is prime time to get on Munster as long as he backs up that week.

Since you don't need the half in R16, provided t's not going to leave you short to get other targets, option 2 seems great