Thanks mate will look soon for sure just doing a Q and A with Scoop.Camo123 wrote:
Sounds all good, similar with Boyd and Brimson you can reverse if Fifita is out as same game/team
If you’re able to, can you check my tracker for my conundrum
NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread
Rabbits21- Fanatic
- Posts : 14022
Reputation : 6176
Join date : 2019-07-24
standard-issue- Moderator
- Posts : 19755
Reputation : 9998
Join date : 2015-08-03
Age : 28
Snatchpato wrote:I am familiar with some of these words.L-Jimmy wrote:
I'm a fan too - nice work @ynot !
The way to deal with @lukeayee 's (correct) criticism is to build two models. The model you have here is a model of actual outcomes.
The model you need to complement it and add intelligence (a cute way of saying observed-minus-predicted) is a model of predicted outcomes - some folks here would've seen the xG stuff soccer uses (and is seen in FPL).
This sounds complex, but fortunately you've already darn near everything you need to build the predicted model! Easiest option is to rely on autocorrelation (i.e. tomorrow=yesterday+today+randomness) - a variant of which is how we price players.
A better (still easy) option is throw everything you can think of together in a LASSO or something, and take the top few predictors and back-build the model. Happy to help with R/Python code here if useful.
A full-powered predictive model is a big chunk of work (needs player identification, weather, trends in each, injuries, player-vs-players stats, season point, distance from Origin, etc etc) because it needs separate models for each position&player. But then you'd have a betting forecasting model that'd beat Sportsbet. Again, happy to help but given the quanta of work it'd be less hands-on-code help and more advice.
I can lift heavy things.
robelgordo- Fanatic
- Posts : 13118
Reputation : 9659
Join date : 2019-07-08
Location : Sydney
Shady2K wrote:The u19 blues don't get origin either
Three kids named Ethan scoring nearly all the points is lol
The Bludger#2- Posts : 2213
Reputation : 1391
Join date : 2022-02-03
Location : The Hunter
Snatchpato wrote:
I am familiar with some of these words.
As an English teacher I am unfamiliar with these words.
Forget maths equations or averages, I go with gut-feel.
(This is why I suck at Fantasy)
the_great_wobbler- Posts : 1112
Reputation : 809
Join date : 2021-05-14
On the topic of data analysis does a public data set exist anywhere? Thinking about learning r and no better way to do it than through the lens of something that holds your attention.
OB- Posts : 948
Reputation : 1068
Join date : 2023-06-11
Age : 37
Location : Melbourne
No Worries wrote:
Only days that dont end in Y. The RLPA is a joke, the players don't even know why there is a ban
It sounds like you're taking that opinion straight from the media.
Cheese was talking on James Graham's podcast and it sounds like there is pretty widespread support for the action from the player base, that the decision was ultimately made by them, and that the reasons they are doing it are pretty important to them.
Rabbits21- Fanatic
- Posts : 14022
Reputation : 6176
Join date : 2019-07-24
Think I’m gonna sell Boyd to Fifita over Brimson to allow more funds to get Cleary back in. If SJ is out this week I’ll probs just go straight to Cleary.
Might have to go give up Grant or can go Hopgood to Grant next week and consider Preston to DCE next week etc….
Makes my 17-21 a bit weaker but it is what it is. And I’d have to forget about Murray.
Robson/Grant SJ/DCE/Preston Matto M. King
Brimson Lemuelu Hands Kris
Does that look strong enough?
Might have to go give up Grant or can go Hopgood to Grant next week and consider Preston to DCE next week etc….
Makes my 17-21 a bit weaker but it is what it is. And I’d have to forget about Murray.
Robson/Grant SJ/DCE/Preston Matto M. King
Brimson Lemuelu Hands Kris
Does that look strong enough?
Scoopadifuego- Posts : 64
Reputation : 157
Join date : 2023-05-22
Location : South Burnett
Rabbits21 wrote:Think I’m gonna sell Boyd to Fifita over Brimson to allow more funds to get Cleary back in. If SJ is out this week I’ll probs just go straight to Cleary.
Might have to go give up Grant or can go Hopgood to Grant next week and consider Preston to DCE next week etc….
Makes my 17-21 a bit weaker but it is what it is. And I’d have to forget about Murray.
Robson/Grant SJ/DCE/Preston Matto M. King
Brimson Lemuelu Hands Kris
Does that look strong enough?
It is if you have a looper most weeks.
Robertneville- Posts : 420
Reputation : 543
Join date : 2023-03-31
BCT05 wrote:Pretty unsure what to do this week myself. I have two pretty much locked in trades in Tapine to Yeo and Boyd to Cleary assuming he is good to go.
But then I'm not sure if I should just keep going and go big. There is an option where I make 4 trades this week and 2 next week and then hang on for dear life from there with 3 trades left.
It would involve binning both Null and Bula and I'm really not sure how I feel about each of them, Null in particular. Feels weird trading out a CTR playing 80 at second row. Some poor scoring lately but we also know he can go big. Maybe Penis is a better trade out with the late bye to come...
I have been planing to do the very same thing; 4 this week and 2 next week to bring in 5 guns and 1 cashout and then trying to hold on 'til the end.
What's causing me the most consternation is that I'll need to trade out 2 Tigers this week, and with them playing the first game I don't want to risk trading in origin players who may get rested as I'll have no way to reverse.
B/L- Posts : 3395
Reputation : 2796
Join date : 2016-01-12
mattnz wrote:Great to hear SJ will be back at Warriors. A chance to build next year with him back and RTS adding some real quality to the backline.
Snatchpato- Posts : 9123
Reputation : 7789
Join date : 2020-06-28
Age : 33
Location : Gold Coast
The Bludger#2 wrote:
As an English teacher I am unfamiliar with these words.
Forget maths equations or averages, I go with gut-feel.
(This is why I suck at Fantasy)
Ponga Yeo the Mann- Posts : 2468
Reputation : 2694
Join date : 2019-03-16
Age : 33
Location : Newcastle
Garrick or marzhew for my last WFB spot?
TU Greg
TD Reuben
TU Greg
TD Reuben
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
- Posts : 10284
Reputation : 7860
Join date : 2015-10-29
Age : 31
GarethEllisismyDad wrote:watching the U19 state of origin ready for next years cheapies!
Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years
From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent
Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses
https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/
Liverpool_Bulldog- Fanatic
- Posts : 19477
Reputation : 6801
Join date : 2016-02-14
Location : New Zealand
Those halves combos!multiple.scoregasms wrote:
Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years
From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent
Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses
https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/
GarethEllisismyDad- Posts : 4718
Reputation : 2476
Join date : 2022-02-21
Location : England
multiple.scoregasms wrote:
Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years
From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent
Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses
https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/
The Canberra guy who got a hatrick ethan strange was awesome
The winger Ethan Ferguson was decent too
Both fainu played good
That’s all i noticed half watching
Liverpool_Bulldog- Fanatic
- Posts : 19477
Reputation : 6801
Join date : 2016-02-14
Location : New Zealand
If any of you champions spot any Carrigan news today feel free to post.
Revraiser- Fanatic
- Posts : 17154
Reputation : 9481
Join date : 2015-10-21
Location : Sydney
Jfc. The Sunday night 6pm game again. Who wants that
Finch- Posts : 9577
Reputation : 2801
Join date : 2016-03-02
Revraiser wrote:Jfc. The Sunday night 6pm game again. Who wants that
4/6/8 here in NZ
I don't mind it but I love my footy
Finch- Posts : 9577
Reputation : 2801
Join date : 2016-03-02
Really interested to see who the dogs go with, either Skelton or Alamoti and push Kiraz to the wing
I need to bring in a CTR/WFB this week, might just grab Skelton if he gets the nod, feel like Staggs would own him though if on the same side
I need to bring in a CTR/WFB this week, might just grab Skelton if he gets the nod, feel like Staggs would own him though if on the same side
Revraiser- Fanatic
- Posts : 17154
Reputation : 9481
Join date : 2015-10-21
Location : Sydney
Finch wrote:
4/6/8 here in NZ
I don't mind it but I love my footy
I get it,but they just have no idea. No pulse check.