NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 4 - A spawning salmon appears

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Stats, Breakevens and more
https://footystatistics.com/

2024 team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/67y1rkx92jtu5fm/2024+Team+Planner+v0.1.xlsm/file

2023 NSW Cup Stats
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2024 bye schedule


2024 Origin bye planner

2024 Origin bye planner supplement:

Dual Position Player (DPP) Updates:

More links to come

Finally!

L-Jimmy, an off-season shitpost for you to ponder

We have a $10million salary cap to fill our team.
But we can't spend this totally as we wish, we must fill every position, and spend a minimum of $230k on each position doing so.

So is it more useful, statistically to view Hynes as taking up $1million of a $10million cap. (10%)

Or should we view it that we have $4,830k of spending locked in to our team, with $5170k available on upgrades
Hynes is then $770k of our discretionary spending - or 14% of our available funds


Answers on a spreadsheet

He's beached as bro    

via GIPHY

Hi can I get thumbs up if running with
Grant, Haas, Cleary, Hynes

Thumbs down if not.

And Thumbs up if Cleary, Hynes Combo

Thumbs down if not

Cheers

THEGAME wrote:Hi can I get thumbs up if running with
Grant, Haas, Cleary, Hynes

Thumbs down if not.

Only have Cleary from this crew

If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

mattnz wrote:If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

I assume Matterson comes into the 17 unless injured, and that Hopgood plays similar role to last year - he already averaged over 65 minutes and don't see a huge increase on that.

Think Murray/Haas might present better value.

mattnz wrote:If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

He and Cleary have been the only two locks in my team since opening.
BA may have screwed us with the Hookers but I still believe he wants to target 80 mins for Hopgood and only sub him if he’s looking tired.

Milchcow wrote:

L-Jimmy, an off-season shitpost for you to ponder

We have a $10million salary cap to fill our team.
But we can't spend this totally as we wish, we must fill every position, and spend a minimum of $230k on each position doing so.

So is it more useful, statistically to view Hynes as taking up $1million of a $10million cap. (10%)

Or should we view it that we have $4,830k of spending locked in to our team, with $5170k available on upgrades
Hynes is then $770k of our discretionary spending - or 14% of our available funds


Answers on a spreadsheet

At first glance you are entirely correct that we should view 230k as the minimum and therefore Heinz would represent 14% of the cap. It would only index from 0 and 0 was actually an option.

But I suspect we're even more constrained than that, As there are precious few 230k players available who will actually score.

This implies we need to have a multidimensional solution analysis framework, in capturing not only available dollars but desired total points (which is in itself a function of available dollars dynamically adjusted through the season, which means time is another dimension).

The intuitive stretch from this, and note I would need to prove it (in ideally not a spreadsheet) with some variety of simulation, is that there are two arms of effort to focus on in terms of minimising spend or identically increasing earnings, and in points earning.

This intuition is born of the fact we are under three constraints, available slots, available currency, and minimum expenditure.

The direct result of that intuition is I suspect cows and guns he's going to come out of any modelling as an optimal pathway. But I do hate the forward guessing work before I've done it, and so will not rule out mid-ranger heavy or all cow then pivot or any of the other blended strategies folks come up with.

I suspect actually building a prescriptive model up front would be a pain in the arse because of that multidimensionality and time constraints + origin etc, so I will suggest whoever takes up this work does it simply is a numerical simulation solution - which again rules out a spreadsheet.

Forgive typos and inconsistencies - I'm currently sitting beneath the fan, watching my kids swimming nursing in some dusty and weird tropical paradise. Really should do more actual work.....

mattnz wrote:

Only have Cleary from this crew

I only have beanz

Wonder if we will find out if Suaalii is GKing

If Seyfarth can maintain his .78ppm (.89 last year) from the interchange, then 45-50 mins is enough. Might be worth a punt.

mattnz wrote:If team lists for Eels for R1 are anything like they were today, Hopgood could be firming for huge minute lock.

Matt, you are insane. Both Tuilagi and Ofahengaue are both capable of playing big minutes. I am happy for you to pick Hopgood, but he ain't playing 80. Hands is just as likely to spend time at LOCK as any of the other bench players. There is no way Hands is subbing Brown or Moses

Milchcow wrote:

I assume Matterson comes into the 17 unless injured, and that Hopgood plays similar role to last year - he already averaged over 65 minutes and don't see a huge increase on that.

Think Murray/Haas might present better value.

And dare i say it... Tohu Harris

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Matt, you are insane. Both Tuilagi and Ofahengaue are both capable of playing big minutes. I am happy for you to pick Hopgood, but he ain't playing 80. Hands is just as likely to spend time at LOCK as any of the other bench players. There is no way Hands is subbing Brown or Moses

Just to add a note to this, pretty sure Hands played in the halves all through age grades so not as wild as you might think

So the only sample on Salmon at lock is 1 game for 80 mins in NSW cup. Scored 42 all in base

38 last week in trial in however many mins he played (in approx 40 odd mins based off Talking League notes)

GreenSchist wrote:

Just to add a note to this, pretty sure Hands played in the halves all through age grades so not as wild as you might think  

Dual position Hands never a bad thing