NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 5 - No one will miss him

Mulvy wrote:

Do you see this as a good or bad thing?

my tv broke wrote:Whats changed for souths forwards since last year? Sele is gone and Keppie is there now. Seems like a slight improvement.

I'll answer my own question. I think nothing has changed. Same roles for Murray and most of the forwards and halves. I reflected earlier with this:

Doing a bit of a deep dive on Murray. When not injured (games over 40 min) average went from 66.4 in 2022 to 58.8 in 2023. Played exactly the same amount of minutes. Made exactly the same amount of tackles and similar run metres (actually went up a little). Same try scoring rate. What was the difference then? The first one that stood out is penalties up from 0.4 per game to 1.1 per game. He also got a sin bin last year. Attacking stats were down: TA/LB/LBA went from 0.3/0.3/0.4 to 0.1/0.3/0.1 and offloads halved from 1.8 to 0.9. That last one alone accounts for 3.6 points alone if they go to hand.

This all says to me that basically had the same role, same minutes, same base stats. And was a bit unluckier with the other stats, game flow, bounce of the ball etc. And his average is more likely to go back up again, than go down further. I doubt finishing 9th instead of 7th makes a lot of difference. Forward pack and halves settled. Any other factors I’m missing?

Been playing around with the team and have got one with Haas, HopGOD, Cleary and Ponga. Have some flexibility to free some cash up dependent on TLT.

I just have the feeling I also want Moses. The only way to get him is to downgrade elsewhere. Could downgrade Api, or go for Levi instead of the likes of Liddle which ain't so crash hot either.

Mulvy wrote:



I'll answer my own question. I think nothing has changed. Same roles for Murray and most of the forwards and halves. I reflected earlier with this:

Doing a bit of a deep dive on Murray. When not injured (games over 40 min) average went from 66.4 in 2022 to 58.8 in 2023. Played exactly the same amount of minutes. Made exactly the same amount of tackles and similar run metres (actually went up a little). Same try scoring rate. What was the difference then? The first one that stood out is penalties up from 0.4 per game to 1.1 per game. He also got a sin bin last year. Attacking stats were down: TA/LB/LBA went from 0.3/0.3/0.4 to 0.1/0.3/0.1 and offloads halved from 1.8 to 0.9. That last one alone accounts for 3.6 points alone if they go to hand.

This all says to me that basically had the same role, same minutes, same base stats. And was a bit unluckier with the other stats, game flow, bounce of the ball etc. And his average is more likely to go back up again, than go down further. I doubt finishing 9th instead of 7th makes a lot of difference. Forward pack and halves settled. Any other factors I’m missing?

Muz seemed frazzled at times last year. imo he's not a big minute forward anymore. Errors creep in to his game too much. He's a great player though. If rabbits want him to ball play more i can also see that having a negative to his scoring.

Mulvy wrote:

What about the trial confirmed Harris for you? The leg strapping? Being lacklustre? I'm still half interested mind you, a thousand tackles a game does it for me, I don't care how my players get points, but still feels on the decline to me.

Had an HIA, would have been well into the 60s without it.

Mulvy wrote:

Do you see this as a good or bad thing?

Well he looks like one wrong tackle away from getting busted every game, but Murray's leg speed and defence makes a massive difference to Souths Middle. Averaging 57, could have some added value. Origin is obviously on the cards, but we'll deal with that later. A lot of water under the bridge before Origin rolls around.

Rabbits21 wrote:

Not much except Duncan will be a regular in the 17. Arrow will start edge.

T. Burgess, Duncan, Moale will be bench I would say last spot between Mamozelos, Havili, Host or Shaq

What do you think of Arrow's prospects Rabbits - he seems like he should be a more popular pick starting on an EDG?

mattnz wrote:

Had an HIA, would have been well into the 60s without it.

What, today? I don't even look at the scoring in a trial. All eye test.

I do remember feeling awful when I owned him last year, and even a little guilty when he saved his shit score three weeks in a row with a try.

mickspicks wrote:

Muz seemed frazzled at times last year. imo he's not a big minute forward anymore. Errors creep in to his game too much. He's a great player though. If rabbits want him to ball play more i can also see that having a negative to his scoring.

Did they mess around with his role too much ?

60 mins split evenly either side of half time up the middle of the park seems like the best way to use him.

From 7th to 9th doesnt seem much but i thought souths struggled a bit last year. Injuries to other forwards maybe?

Murray is great with two good props in front of him to play off

Mulvy wrote:

What, today? I don't even look at the scoring in a trial. All eye test.

I do remember feeling awful when I owned him last year, and even a little guilty when he saved his shit score three weeks in a row with a try.

He was one of very few players that scored well this weekend.

Fermor looked pretty quiet I must say. Maybe that changes with Foran back, but maybe not.

my tv broke wrote:

Did they mess around with his role too much ?

60 mins split evenly either side of half time up the middle of the park seems like the best way to use him.

From 7th to 9th doesnt seem much but i thought souths struggled a bit last year. Injuries to other forwards maybe?

Murray is great with two good props in front of him to play off

They were just a frustrated team last year. I remember watching them in Perth and nothing would stick. Going for early ball but pushing it without much thought. Then, their ruck control was pretty lazy. I assume they'll tighten that up this year but discipline really is the key to their success.

mickspicks wrote:

Muz seemed frazzled at times last year. imo he's not a big minute forward anymore. Errors creep in to his game too much. He's a great player though. If rabbits want him to ball play more i can also see that having a negative to his scoring.

Take his injury games out (so games over 40mins, fair right? he's not playing less than 40min) he played 69 minutes in 2022 and 69 minutes in 2023. Made the same amount of tackles, made the same amount of run metres and same amount of tries.

How do we come to, "not a big minute forward anymore"?

Murray bounce back factor sounds good

Mulvy wrote:

Take his injury games out (so games over 40mins, fair right? he's not playing less than 40min) he played 69 minutes in 2022 and 69 minutes in 2023. Made the same amount of tackles, made the same amount of run metres and same amount of tries.

How do we come to, "not a big minute forward anymore"?

I'm saying I see him as "not a big minute forward". It doesn't mean he won't be played as such. Just watching him I think you get more quality out of him in say 3 x 30 min stints v 70+ mins.

Fantasy wise, if he plays 70 he's 100% worth a shout. Just like HopGOD. But like HopGOD, just because he gets the fantasy points, doesn't mean he should play close to 80.

mickspicks wrote:

I'm saying I see him as "not a big minute forward". It doesn't mean he won't be played as such. Just watching him I think you get more quality out of him in say 3 x 30 min stints v 70+ mins.

Fantasy wise, if he plays 70 he's 100% worth a shout. Just like HopGOD. But like HopGOD, just because he gets the fantasy points, doesn't mean he should play close to 80.

Fair enough. I don't really care so much about what I think they should be doing though. But what I think they will be doing. With Murray, I think his role is pretty nailed on. With HopGod, I have NFI. Because it's a new evolving role, and BA is a bit of a prick.

mattnz wrote:

He was one of very few players that scored well this weekend.

Well in that case...

Mulvy wrote:

Fair enough. I don't really care so much about what I think they should be doing though. But what I think they will be doing. With Murray, I think his role is pretty nailed on. With HopGod, I have NFI. Because it's a new evolving role, and BA is a bit of a prick.

Haha yeah fair enough.

Murray looks pretty much set but I'm interested to see if someone like Havilli works his way on to the bench at some point.

What do we think Cheese avg first 10 rounds?

If it’s 42 or so it’s a no if it’s 45/46 it’s a yes does he get 55-58mins or 60-63mins?

Watson looked good in trial does that take away Cheese mins from 60ish to 55ish.

DPP is obviously handy and he plays first up

Tigs wrote:

https://x.com/philgould15/status/1761701289371869656?s=46&t=EHB4Z4umzLpE35wr3l-6Jg

Nice. First post also mentions all dogs except Sutton should be sweet for Round 1. I'd imagine Tracey and Kiraz in for Wilson and Xerri.