Obbeats

All of my picks are for the same reason outside of Cleary. Value is my modus operandi. As I was learning how to play fantasy last year something became clear to me. Making money quickly is the key to the game, and hence I want to open myself up to the ability to do that in as many slots as possible. It's inevitable that a certain percentage of picks will fail, and while it seems to me like previous years have had  quite a few basement price cash cows they seem to be pretty slim pickings this year. I understand the traditional wisdom of the top players is typically "guns and cows - avoid mid price", but unless we see a slew of base price guys in the upcoming team list I think that the balance of this outlook may need to be adjusted slightly this year. Of course, I may be wrong, as this is my first preseason.

This is my understanding of this guns/cows/avoid mid-rangers strategy:

Base price players cannot lose much if any value if they fail (eg. Tommy Talau), so if you have a bunch of them and half are hits you still make money. You can make far more risky picks, and the consequences are not that bad. At worst you lose a bit of cover (if the lose their spot), a trade at some point, and a slot that has the potential of making you money - I would posit that this is in fact the worst part of it.

Mid rangers carry higher risk in that they can lose salary cap for you. This is indeed very bad. Therefore mid-rangers need to be selected with a far higher degree of certainty in their ability to make money. Mid-rangers with risk are far more dangerous to your season than a base price risk.

I see it in terms of two buckets of risk with mid-rangers.
Bucket 1 is a player who will hold value at worst, or a risk of injury (which is essentially the same thing assuming you can cover that position). This is not the end of the world and equal to the risk of a base price player.
Bucket 2 is a player that will lose money. Typically this is either a forward getting less minutes, or a part of backliners doing their normal fluctuation when a try drought comes up. Can also come from positional changes like a CTR moving to wing.

I can live with bucket 1 risks, but bucket 2 risks are (mostly) unacceptable. With these concepts in mind I have made this team.

Robson
McInnes Cotter Tatola
Piakura Luki
Fogarty Cleary
Kris Suli
Pappy Kini Rapana

[Lussick/Lolo/Curran/Blore] Sitili Wong Hutchison
Burbo SHughes [Levi/Salmon] [Weekes/Strange]

~100k-150k ITB

A couple of notes on players: Suli is a mid-range backliners, which is of course a bucket 2 risk, however I believe he is at his floor already and therefore has limited downside.

Rapana moving positions to my mind only has upside and has very low bucket 2 risk.

I think the rest of the selections have been very well discussed at this point.

Criticism and feedback more than more than accepted. It's desired.

Obbeats wrote:Criticism and feedback more than more than accepted. It's desired.

Like the squad, given I build with similar methodology

Not really sure on McInnes. At lock with Finucane in last 2 years he’s 53 in 56 mins which is basically at price with early bye.

He also had a major major major outlier of 81 tackles last year which if you exclude that he’s around 56 which is mainly without Finucane and some games without Rudolf

Think Murray is way clearer upside given he’s been 60s averages in last in 2021 and 2022

Camo123 wrote:

Like the squad, given I build with similar methodology

Not really sure on McInnes. At lock with Finucane in last 2 years he’s 53 in 56 mins which is basically at price with early bye.

He also had a major major major outlier of 81 tackles last year which if you exclude that he’s around 56 which is mainly without Finucane and some games without Rudolf

Think Murray is way clearer upside given he’s been 60s averages in last in 2021 and 2022

Very fair. I may have gotten too excited seeing booze select McInnes and listening to a podcast discussing the possibility of 60+ if he were to get big minutes (60+).

I can make a direct switch given the money ITB. Even with the more expensive option in Blore for that 4-way option I had. Also allows me to VC in the LV games. I think you've convinced me.

My only concern, and reason I hadn't gone with Murray is that his lower output may come from a shift in his role as opposed to a down year.

Squad looks good for what we currently know and good contingency plans in place, so can't really critique anything there.

Making good trade decisions will be more important, and based on the way you're thinking about the game and what you've learned after one (not quite full) season, I reckon you're on your way to becoming a really good player. Definitely someone I'll be keeping an eye on

With that said, I might have to remove myself as a Wildcard in Fantasy Fantasy and chuck you in there. Would've been my pick if not for Booze gaming the system

I'm also going with a heavy midranger strategy for the first time and hoping I can make it work.. that or become another case study for why it doesn't. Could have guys like Salmon, Sitili, Wong and Blore all start Rd 1, then suddenly benched, plus an injury/suspension somewhere and having some tough decisions to make. Guns and cows is generally more straight-forward in limiting the midrangers and issues that arise (minutes not there/late benchings/poor output for 2-3 games trying your patience).

Anyway, good luck for the season mate

I think I've had a last minute change of heart on Murray. I've been crunching that stats and Murray has really only had one year above 60. That being 2022. Maybe last year wasn't as much a down year as '22 being the anomaly. I am toying with the idea of Teddy now who the 4 years preceding last was a mid to high 50s scorer.
Got enough Mid cover to move one into Murray's spot and teddy into my 13 over Kini who moves down into my bench.

Feeling good about the decision to go Teddy over Murray so far. Teddy went farther above his Breakeven than Murray did and it freed up extra cash for me to potentially move Sitili to May or another option after the round - will have to see how things play out and weigh up my options.

Obbeats wrote:Feeling good about the decision to go Teddy over Murray so far. Teddy went farther above his Breakeven than Murray did and it freed up extra cash for me to potentially move Sitili to May or another option after the round - will have to see how things play out and weigh up my options.

Good decision I think mate, Teddy had a down year last year but I think that was down to the Roosters being poor, they should be much better this year and Teddy will only benefit from that. He was on track for around 40 points doing absolutely nothing before the TA.

I'm also tempted by a Sitili to May move, left enough cash in the bank for it.

How did you team end up Obbeats?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:How did you team end up Obbeats?

About to sit down on the computer to tinker. The Android app isn't showing salary cap.

I am currently at 204/6 with Sitili, May, Piakura, Tatola, Teddy, and Burbo (using Kris to AE his score from position 18).

I'll make an update when I have settled on something I'm happy with.

Was initially pretty hot on Chan, but looking at his NSW cup scores is rather concerning. He misses 4 tackles a game and only around 20 total tackles. He really needs tries to make any decent points. Still has value if getting decent minutes, but I'll see what the team looks like when I sit down.

Right now I am tentatively sitting with:

Robson
Hopgood Sitili Tatola
Piakura Wong
Cleary Fogarty
Kris Suli
Pappy Teddy Rapana

Hutch Salmon Luki Levi
Hughes Burbo Chan Strange

With around 50-70k ITB if I remember correctly.


I've dropped Cotter, Kini, and Blore (who I had as placeholder) in this version of the squad to make room for Salmon and Chan, which also gave me enough money to go up to Hopgood. I like the look of the bench for him and we've been given enough cheapie options to get the extra gun in.

Was toying with one arrangement which allowed me to put Hynes in instead of Hopgood and Hutch by using Cotric as well, but was a little cautious about having a million dollars sidelined for two weeks straight when the Panthers and Sharks byes come up. I also think that there will likely be an opportunity to grab Hynes at sub $1m at some point in the season.

Again, still tentative, and will have another look over everything in the coming days.

The other permutation I am toying with is this:

Robson
McInnes Sitili Tatola
Piakura Wong
Cleary Fogarty
Kris Kiraz
Pappy Teddy Rapana

Hutch Salmon Luki Levi
Hughes Burbo Chan Strange

With around 150k ITB - can't actually see my cap on android app.

Not sure which I like better right now. I do think McInnes has more upside than Hopgood. Will have to mull it over.

Turns out I can afford Kiraz with Hopgood, but leaves me very skint. About 20k in the bank. I think I prefer the contingency of having Suli and ~120k.

My probably final team:

Robson
McInnes Sitili Tatola
Wong Piakura
Cleary Fogarty
Kris* Kiraz
Pap Teddy Rapana

Hutch Luki Chan Salmon
Shughes Burbo* Strange Levi

163 ITB


Edit: just before the game I swapped Kini out for Levi and moved Chan into my 17, Levi into EMG.

Ended up on 693 points - 54k overall. Not too bad considering where it looked like I was going to end up. Not going to panic too much, and may only be looking at 1 trade if any this coming week.
Still trust the reasons I made for each of my selections with the only concerns in this regard being McInnes minutes and Sitili potential injury.

Robson: Happy with his output especially considering the amount of attacking posession Cowboys had - expect higher scores if he takes more runs from dummy half or in grindier games where he needs to tackle more. Not much else to say really.

McInnes: On minutes watch for next week - if he only gets 40-50 mins again next week will move him on. Happy to hold for now, won't lose all that much cash.

Sitili: Need to see the team lists and more info on injury. Candidate to move on this week for someone like BodySlam, Jaifiti or Liddle.

Tatola: Will probably take another look at him this coming week. Another minutes watch, and potential candidate to move on after round 2.

Wong: Looked good, happy as Larry.

Piakura: Not much to say. 0 points was a disaster, but will hold firm and wait for him to make more money, but at a later date than expected.

Cleary: I mean it's the Chin.

Fogarty:happy with him output. He won't get the kick metres every week, but I expect that what he loses in kick metres he will make up in more attacking stats across the year. Still expecting 52-55 average. Needle hasn't moved.

Kris: Provided a nice loop to get Burbo's score this week, and will likely provide some value moving forward.

Kiraz: Happy to get 35 from a poor dogs performance. Holding firm even if he has to play wing for a few weeks while JAC is out. He is priced at his expected value at worst and potentially still 5 points of value if and when he is in CTR.

Pap: Standard sort of variation you can expect from even the best backs. Nothing to worry about here.

Teddy: Quite happy with his score to start the year. He looked good and was working hard which is nice to see.

Rapana: Cant complain. I expect I will have to move him on at some point, but will monitor that and do so when necessary. Especially if he gets moved back to wing, but that would probably provid an opportunity to pick up his replacement at FB if it is Savage or Stewart.

Hutch: Exactly what I was expecting from him in a base only game. I think he does have some potent attacking upside in him. He works hard and can pull out LB, LBAs, TAs and tries to give us the occasional ceiling game. Will really only need a couple in quick succession to make decent money.

Luki: Considering the interchanges used on him - very happy. Interesting to see him used in the middle at the end of the game. I think this just adds to his value proposition.

Chan: The update to his score has moved him from a depressing pick to one I'm actually quite happy with. +8 points on his BE should get his price moving if he remains in the run on side. Show me the money.

Salmon: Injury rotations hurt him, but also encouraging that they see his usefulness in covering multiple positions and willingness to keep him on the park for 80. Seems like he will have decent security, but we will see. Will start making money.

Shughes: Looked good, and looks like a slow burn. I think that their need for bigger bodies will push him into longer minutes going forward.

Burbo: Better than most people's best case scenario. Even if we have to move him on in the next couple weeks this score will ensure he makes a non-negligible amount of money, and if Schuster's injury is anything like every other season starting calf injury he's had, should make very good money.

Strange: Can't complain. This might be close to his floor. As he gets more comfortable/confident will have to odd ceiling game in the thirties I reckon, slow burn but will make cash.

Levi: Honestly not all that bad. Another slow burn, but got the minutes to make money if he keeps his 0.5 ppm. Was well lower than that this game, but the try saved his score. Not stressing  about him that much. If I pick up Liddle or Lussick will be a candidate to move on at some point probably, but no rush unless a base price guaranteed cashie comes up.

I didn't use any trades last week and ended up with 759 for round 2.

I need to trade this week with Wong and Luki out, and it seems the most obvious move is them to Bodyslam and Lussick.

I would love to get Galvin or Fine in, but would leave me with nearly 400k ITB, and that's a bit much.

Another crazy idea I've been toying with and almost certainly won't do is Luki to Galvin and McInnes to Hynes. Probably a dumb idea, but there is a small temptation there.

Any thoughts? Should I YOLO it?

OB wrote:I didn't use any trades last week and ended up with 759 for round 2.

I need to trade this week with Wong and Luki out, and it seems the most obvious move is them to Bodyslam and Lussick.

I would love to get Galvin or Fine in, but would leave me with nearly 400k ITB, and that's a bit much.  

Another crazy idea I've been toying with and almost certainly won't do is Luki to Galvin and McInnes to Hynes. Probably a dumb idea, but there is a small temptation there.

Any thoughts? Should I YOLO it?

If you can get both may and lussick this week pull the trigger. thats potentially 300k profit in 5 weeks time and scores of ~50/60. Galvin and Hynes wont move too much in price for next week, so you can pick them up then.

Yep, what King said. You're already ahead of most with 2 trades banked. Get those two this week and see where Galvin and Finefeuiaki are next week.

King Assassin wrote:

If you can get both may and lussick this week pull the trigger. thats potentially 300k profit in 5 weeks time and scores of ~50/60. Galvin and Hynes wont move too much in price for next week, so you can pick them up then.

Thanks guys. I had to let the idea see the light of day, make it feel entertained like a Marvel movie fan - no substance to it. Hynes at this point goes against my strat of value in all positions bar captain to start the year. My WAGS team (which is running a full value acquisition Strat; basically an extreme, all in version) is the perfect example - doesn't have Cleary or Hynes and had 850 this week positioned at ~25,000th compared to this team sitting at around 53,000th. There is a bit of luck going on there, though. Missed out on Luki and had Smithies/Cotter as well as captaining Teddy.

If anyone's interested my WAGS team is currently:

Api
McInnes Cotter May
Sitili Smithies
Strange Fogarty
Kiraz Burbo
Paps Turbo Teddy(c)

Tatola Cheese Piakura Wong*
Kini Galvin Shoes Bostock

Week 2 trades: Lolo/Joe O > Seyfarth/May

Week 3 trading: O'Sullivan/Seyfarth > Turbo/Galvin