lloosemcgoose wrote:5th to 4th this week, but the last weeks havn't been kind with crocker going well and rapana failing meaning those top 2 are looking pretty far away(3rd still in reach).
So have to go a bit left field this week to try and find 60-100 on them so i can have a crack at the biccies next round; options i'm considering
a) Captain Bodene- top 2 don't have him, for me the biggest problem is trying to get the C different from the top lads, bodene guarantees this with the VC on munster/leliua/rapana/smith i could bench him for no real cost if my VC goes huge (say he goes massive, it won't matter as they haven't can't play him)
b) VC on smith/BJ/munster/rapana with the C on burgess (could be a risk of beeing captained by others though). Could go massive against the knights. and if the VC goes huge i could drop him to create an extra POD
c) dropping cartwright/johnson/bromwich for hodgson = i'll be doing one just have to decide who to creeate an xtra POD
d) dropping aitken/munster for gutherson
ee) pray to the fantasy gods that my pods have their weetbix this weeek
thoughts?
This is just my two cents, and not necessarily the be all, end all decision you should make.
Both went Fifita last week, and although Smith outscored them, I doubt they will stray too much from the general committee of C. Smith and A. Fifita. Anyway, let's break down your options..
You vs Team 1: Point Difference: 181 points.
Team Differences:
Yours - J. Bromwich, R. James, B. Thompson, J. Rapana, J. Mansour (J. Hodgson)
His - J. Graham, T. Harris, B. Hunt, J. Croker, B. Barba (A. McCullough)
You vs Team 2: Point Difference: 154 points.
Team Differences:
Yours - B. Thompson, J. Rapana, J. Mansour, J. Leilua, B. Cartwright (J. Hodgson)
His - J. Graham, B. Hunt, K. Hurrell, J. Croker, J. Hayne (A. McCullough, B. Cartwright)
You vs Team 3: Point Difference: 43 points.
Team Differences:
Yours - R. James, J. de Belin, S. Johnson, J. Rapana (J. Hodgson)
His - J. Friend J. Dugan, J. Hayne, B. Hunt (P. Gallen, S. Johnson)
Captain Selection:Firstly, both guys are incredibly close in score. You would think they both would play it safe, and run with C. Smith/A. Fifita as trying a PoD against the other person would simply set them behind still. Looking at the lists above, your current biggest PoDs are J. Rapana, and J. Hodgson, followed by R. James, B. Thompson, and J. Mansour.
Let's cover your two biggest PoD's first. Last time Rapana scored 38 points against Manly while Hodgson scored 59 points. While both have potential to be massive PoD's J. Rapana is too much of a risk, and J. Hodgson has only scored about 60 points 3 times. I would say that it is too much of a risk to play either of them as your Captain. You could VC them, but we will get onto that.
The next two PoD selections are B. Thompson, and J. Mansour as both aren't in the Top 2 teams. J. Mansour potential to bust the game wide open, and considering the match up against the Titans makes it a very important fixture that the Panthers must win. So he has every potential to go big, except last time he faced the Titans he scored 30 points. So the risk is massive. Now onto the person who seems to be your main consideration...
B. Thompson has only outscored C. Smith 4 times out of 15. He has outscored A. Fifita 5 out of 15 times. When he last played the Tigers he scored 51 points with a try included, he has only scored over 60 points on 4 occasions. He could still be a valuable selection as a PoD, but all in all as far as a Captain Selection, unless he does something amazing. Then you can probably bet you will end up losing ground against the Top 2 teams by selecting him.
Other selections you could make, and ones you have suggested... Sam Burgess, is a good captain choice, but again he hasn't busted out too many massive scores that would impact enough on the potential of you moving up the rankings and making up ground on the leaders potentially.
I have one suggestion though... he is coming off a massive game last week, and the Titans will require a repeat performance from him to help ensure that they make the Top 8. That is Ryan James, and his scores have fluctuated, and the player in 2nd place does have him. He has outscored C. Smith on 9 out of 21 times. He has potential to go massive this week, but like anyone outside of Smith/Fifita is still a risk. All alternate options really are more pinning your hopes on the risk, but I think R. James has more of a Risk/Reward factor this week when compared to B. Thompson/S. Burgess. Even if he is a PoD against only one of the teams.
TL;DR: In my opinion I would roll the dice with Ryan James, however if it backfires I accept no responsibility. I also see why you would look at B. Thompson, but for mine he doesn't have enough reward potential of being the (C). He will still make a great PoD however potentially.
Loophole Selection:The Loophole is a risk because you have both Gutherson and Kaufusi. Let's have a best case scenario for the Loophole play... Rapana (VC) scores 90 points, Kaufusi scores 30 points and B. Thompson (C) scores 50 points. Now if you didn't loophole you would score 190 points, and the loophole would score 210 points. So that is a difference of 20 points in the best case scenario for you. On the flipside say you had something like Rapana (VC) scores 90 points, Kaufusi scores 10 points and then after all that B. Thompson scores 70 points. If you did loophole you would only score 190 points, while if you didn't you would score 230 points. For mine, what you need to make sure you pull off a truly successful Loophole, I would say you don't have that. If purely because of Kaufusi and Gutherson. It is a high risk/high reward situation, but the risk outweighs the reward. It also could end up for naught as Rapana or other (VC) may score low anyway. So no reason to look at it. Though if you really wanted to, I guess you could try and keep it as a potential option. I just don't see it working out. I would go safer and have a solid (VC) choice in case the worst happens.
Point of DifferencesSo it is clear you want to bring in J. Hodgson as a potentially great PoD. Out of the people you mentioned removing. He is out scoring J. Bromwich by 12 points, B. Cartwright by 9.6 points and S. Johnson by 9.8 points based on their last 5 game averages. J. Bromwich is already a PoD against the team in first, B. Cartwright is a PoD potentially against the team in second, S. Johnson is a PoD against the team in third. Out of those 3 I would probably swap him out for J. Bromwich. The biggest point difference, potential to be rested if the Storm get up early. Meanwhile the Panthers will want to solidify their Top 8 chances, and the Warriors will be throwing everything they can at the Tigers who had 40 points scored against them to make the Top 8. (With that said J. Bromwich could go massive as the Storm look to secure the Minor Premiership.) Actually I would maybe swap out S. Johnson, but he has the best potential of all 3 to score a massive amount of points.
C. Gutherson, while he is in the halves he could do well. However I personally wouldn't swap Munster or Aitken out for him. If you really want that PoD then swap out Aitken. But that is up in the air as to who will score more, so flip a coin? Actually screw that, go hard or go home right? Both teams will look to close out the season strong, but the Dragons have let through so many more points than the Eels. In fact it is almost 200 more points. So go with Gutherson over Aitken.
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