by multiple.scoregasms Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:33 pm
White Lightning wrote:The only Broncos I like are McGuire if he gets the lock position & Arrow as a cc & maybe getting the lock position.
They are really going to miss Parker not being there. Over the last couple of years since Parker hasn't played 80 minutes you noticed straight away when he went off for a rest that the Broncos lost domination of the ruck while he wasn't on the field.
The majority of fantasy players are going to get sucked into thinking whoever plays at lock for the Broncos will pick up the majority of Parker's points and minutes. In my opinion this is wrong and lets dive into why.
I think early rounds last year showed a sneak peak into what will happen with the Broncos pack. In 2015 Parker averaged 62.5 points in 62.7 minutes, pretty much bang on with his career PPM. In the first 10 games of 2016 Parker averaged 59 minutes yet only 51.5 points. To figure out why this happened we can see average tackles(34.2 down to 29.5) tackle breaks(1.9 per game down to 1.7) and offloads (1.9 down to 1.3) being the biggest cause. His run metres stayed reasonably consistent. The biggest reason for this sudden drop in stats was not due to age, but due to a different role within the team. Only watching the first 9 games of the year I noticed a trend among with Parker and McGuire.
In previous seasons Parker did most of his defensive work from marker or as the "A" defender(for those that are unsure what this means I have attached a picture above) with McCullough acting as the other marker or "A" defender if the tackle was made wider. However in the first 10 games, whilst Parker still spend time defending at the "A" position, the majority of his time was spent as the "B" or "C" defender with McGuire filling in as the "A" defender on the majority of plays. This led to more defensive work being funnelled at McGuire and McCullough with Parker missing out on those "easy points."
Onto the missing tackle breaks and offloads. The explanation for this is much simpler. In previous seasons Parker took most of his hit up on 3rd and 4th tackles when the defense was retreating giving him a chance to hit the line at pace and work some magic, either with an offload or tackle bust. 2016 saw Parker taking the majority of his hit ups on 1st and 2nd tackle when the defensive line is set and the forwards job is to hit the soft spot behind the markers and get a quick play the ball, rather than trying to make something happen offensively. This extra work however was not taken over by McGuire, but covered by the emergence of the young Broncos forwards (Ofa, Pangai Junior, Arrow).
TL;DR Regardless of who is wearing the number 13 jersey for the Broncos they will not replace Parker's output if last season is anything to judge by. If you are chasing base stats and consistent scoring lock in McGuire. If you want upside pick one of Ofa, Pangai or Arrow and hope for the best.
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