2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 8

I feel like i should be coming in through the back door because i haven't been home in so long....

How are we all travelling ?

Need advice on this team. thinking this team has alittle to much depth with 7 viable reserve options

mccinnes brailey

JWH gurgess wallace kaufusi

gallen JDB buhrer E.T sirronen stimson

sezer hodkinson elgey lamb

smat idris scott cotric

hayne RTS gordon pythlon duffy

manlybeaver wrote:Need advice on this team. thinking this team has alittle to much depth with 7 viable reserve options

mccinnes brailey

JWH gurgess wallace kaufusi

gallen JDB buhrer E.T sirronen stimson

sezer hodkinson elgey lamb

smat idris scott cotric

hayne RTS gordon pythlon duffy

Very balanced mate, but does look a little too deep if that's possible.

Main concerns would be 1) Halves and 2) Captaincy

Knights halves double up and Lamb at 290 being a 3rd/4th choice seems an over spend

Lacks a clear captain option. Would always make an obvious captain choice my first draft. No current monster in Smith or Fifita or no expected monster in JDB or mr consistency in Mannering. Means you are heavily reliant on Gallen unless you are prepared to give the armband to McInnes?

GreenMachine wrote:

Very balanced mate, but does look a little too deep if that's possible.

Main concerns would be 1) Halves and 2) Captaincy

Knights halves double up and Lamb at 290 being a 3rd/4th choice seems an over spend

Lacks a clear captain option. Would always make an obvious captain choice my first draft. No current monster in Smith or Fifita or no expected monster in JDB or mr consistency in Mannering. Means you are heavily reliant on Gallen unless you are prepared to give the armband to McInnes?

JDB is there

lewis9966 wrote:

JDB is there

My bad. JDB not listed first in the second row. Cheeky

Take back the captain concerns. You've got 2 legit in gallen JDB

I'm not even sure Surgess will avg 50 this year let alone 60. I think there'll be a drop in min and tackles from previous years, if he can cut his error rate it would help though. I'm leaving him out to start the year.

Shanbon wrote:I'm not even sure Surgess will avg 50 this year let alone 60. I think there'll be a drop in min and tackles from previous years, if he can cut his error rate it would help though. I'm leaving him out to start the year.

Yeah agree, have not had him in a single draft/iteration yet.

Beepbeep_imaJeep wrote:How long does does a regular 6 man draft go for?

serious answer. I turned up 48 minutes late for mine and it was all over already

rhinoceroo wrote:I don't get why everyone is picking Lamb over Sezer at exact same price. It just seems massive blind optimism over a player where we have no real idea how he'll do put have talked ourselves into thinking he's a great tackler who'll do all the kicking. Is he? Is he really?

Meanwhile Sezer scored at his absolute floor last year, has previously been proven to go 45-50, and even if he has a career low year again will add goalkicking points, certainly for the first month and, given Croker will be coming back from a leg injury, possibly beyond. Croker got 8.5 points a game from goalkicking last year, Sezer is just as good from the tee, and even if he only gets those points it's a chunky guaranteed price rise as opposed to the speculative rises you'll get from Lamb.

Sezer is priced accurately based on last year. Lower than he scored at the Titans, but he is used in a different way at the Raiders. The goalkicking is indeed a bonus though and the longer Croker is out for the more tempting that would make him.

Brock Lamb only played 3 games, but all 3 of them he scored higher than what he is priced at. 2 of the 3 were with Hodkinson as his halves partner

Shanbon wrote:I'm not even sure Surgess will avg 50 this year let alone 60. I think there'll be a drop in min and tackles from previous years, if he can cut his error rate it would help though. I'm leaving him out to start the year.

I would love to put money on Surgess averaging over 50 this year.

manlybeaver wrote:Need advice on this team. thinking this team has alittle to much depth with 7 viable reserve options

mccinnes brailey

JWH gurgess wallace kaufusi

gallen JDB buhrer E.T sirronen stimson

sezer hodkinson elgey lamb

smat idris scott cotric

hayne RTS gordon pythlon duffy

I feel like if you run with Brailey then you have to be stacked elsewhere and at the moment you only have 3 top line guns; JDB, Gal and McInnes which is what you can afford without running the risk of Bailey. Running that risk should mean you have 1 of Smith/Fifita in there to compensate or just an allround stacked unique position like halves but you are choosing to spend that money on NPR's in my opinion.

From what you've got, I like the front row, the 2nd row has some top line guns, as well as 2 mid tier guns who could easily work there way up the 2rf rankings. The halves feel weak. I wouldn't double down with Hodko and Lamb as what seems to be the consensus is Lamb will get points if he does a lot of the kicking which means Hodko will suffer, so if Hodko becomes a viable option then Lamb loses out. Sezer has been talked about in the last page or 2, and while there are merits I wouldn't be running with him as your top half, definitely need to squeeze at least 1 gun in there. Stock standard CTR and WFB line until you get to Gordon who is a massive POD call. DO you see him returning to his Penrith scoring this season? as it wasn't like he was playing badly while at the Sharks or anything, just one of those players who because he is a safe fullback who doesn't do too much in the way of tackle breaks or tries it is hard for him to rack up points.

Finch wrote:Who is goal kicker for the Eels?

Norman, Gutherson or Hoffman. Or...?

Gutherson I think?

Gutherson is first pick
Radradra is a backup
Fogerty if he gets a shot at 1st grade. He's one of the better kickers

silvertop wrote:

Nah brother, nothing that isnt already common knowledge here. I do keep wondering what motor kromwich and wallace have. Actually here's just a list of extra thoughts that ive been mulling over...

-whats buhrer and barnetts role?
-are there too many props in chooks rotation for JWH to be viable?
-do farah and cook split 60/20 and swap the next week?
-is lowe, coops and lolo basically 80 mins each, therefore limiting boltons upside with fensom coming
-is thaiday:silent: or gillett under the radar?
-is there too much right side attacking at raiders for cotric to actually make cash outside of a fill in or being the fill in?
-who are the 80 minute hookers?
-what will gutherson actually do next to norman?
-what are my trade targets for origin? and the plan b?
-are the morris twins getting too old, how much cash is in their price?
-what hope is there for uate to get pies or even return meters outside of walker?
-will gallen really get his early season injury?
-can proctor make money priced like that?

Well thats enough for now its getting boring
-

I'll try and touch on a few of these since I've had some similar thoughts.

Looking at the trial Buhrer was defending in the middle and attacking on the edge. Should be set for 80 minutes in this role so a bit of upside if he stays healthy. Barnett looks like he will be playing in the middle for all minutes he is on the field. Expecting around 60 minutes. Had a huge work rate on the edge so not sure if there is much room for improvement but surely less decision making and more tackling anything that moves will reduce his missed tackles.

With Moa gone I think Evans steps straight into his bench spot. Until Taukieaho gets back I think the lock position will be used for a backrower(Guerra/Carter) unlike previous years when it was used for Tauk and Liu. This leaves the prop rotation as JWH, Napa, Liu and Evans. JWH gets 45-50, Napa gets 45-50, Liu and Evans gets 30-35 weekly depending on match ups and game flow. When Tauk gets back Carter probably loses his bench spot and lock becomes 3rd prop.

Not going to attempt to work out what Madge will do with Cook and Farah.

Coopers you can pretty much lock in for 80 week in week out. Lolo should see 50-60 in the middle. Lowe probably gets 20-30 on the edge and 20-30 in the middle for around 50 minutes total. Hess will pick up the extra minutes on the edge. I'm expecting Fensom to slot into the Hannant role of 40-45 minutes in the middle running forward and tackling.

Thaiday doesn't have the conditioning to play 80 on the edge so I think he starts there, comes off for Glenn and then returns and has a stint at prop. Gillett is a smokey as a second tier gun defending next to Hunt. Could do a lot worse as a POD.

Croker played left centre and was leading the NRL in tries for a while last year. The Raiders spread the ball pretty evenly but BJ and Rapana did a lot more when they got the ball last year.

At this stage it looks like Lichaa, Smith and maybe Luke are locked in for 80. The rest will rotate week to week.

Gutherson didn't do a lot of kicking at 5/8 (6 points a week) and now adds goal kicking so if he can keep his attacking stats relatively similar he is slightly undervalued. Been in and out of my team.

I'm planning to do Fifita>Surgess and Smith>Cook(assuming Farah plays origin) in round 12. No back up plan at this stage but we will see how things shake out.

Both Morris brothers seem to be topped out unless Brett goes to fullback then he is slightly under priced.

Uate should make some money unless he gets dropped. I prefer Sio for the extra 13k who had a similar average to Uate and has a much more secure spot.

Can't pick a team based on who will/won't get injured. I am currently starting with Gallen and if he gets injured it's an easy trade to another gun.

Proctor averaged 70 minutes a game at the Storm so there is a little upside if he becomes an 80 minute player. Ash Taylor isn't as good at those short crash balls yet so he should see a few less tries. Is the extra workload enough to offset the lost attacking stats?

Johnny B Goode wrote:
 

Y'know I've been considering this lately and I know it's going to be my yearly dilemma where I'm probably going to pick the wrong option to start the year and kick myself for it. 2014 I chose Brenton Lawrence instead of Jesse Bromwich, 2016 I chose Aaron Woods over James Graham.  
Sezer seems logically like a better scorer but I don't know I've had Lamb in my team from Day 1 and it doesn't feel right to swap now. I mean if Sezer kicks on I'll be annoyed but same thing will happen if Lamb performs as I expect him to.

Sezer's best asset for fantasy scoring was his long kicking. This is gone now at the Raiders with the forwards making so many metres every set

hey guys, how much would be a decent score for first round that you'd be happy with? 800-850?

The two worst starting fulltime halves last year were Sezer with 29.86 and Robson with 27.38. Even if Elgey doesn't manage to beat those scores he is still 60-90k under priced. Is anyone not considering him?

GreenMachine wrote:

Yeah agree, have not had him in a single draft/iteration yet.

Must be on to something lads. I've been running with Gallen/JDB/Mannering over Surgess as I think all 3 outscore him. Majority of fantasy players are starting him because he will be useful in 12 weeks time when those 3 have all put 100 points on him

How many minutes will Vete get with Matulino and Gubb out? I'm warrior fan and no clue. 34min avg last year with ppm of 0.9. Surely will get more?

Showbags wrote:hey guys, how much would be a decent score for first round that you'd be happy with? 800-850?

I usually get around 750 from memory

Surgess + Sezer VS Gillett + Ash Taylor VS Aubbs + Norman?