2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 2

Mighty Fishes wrote:


Hey!!

Welcome back!!

Thanks MF

You ready for this year MF?
Time for some "updates" battles lmao

Alfie wrote:

I'm actually ranked 63rd at the moment and I disagree about the luck thing. You really have to utilise the teams playing twice each round and pick the right cows. Players like Maddinson, Nair and Carey were crucial and you have to do your research on form in the JLT One Day Cups. You also have to pick your guns carefully because there are only like five players that hit form every year.

I had Maddinson and Carey from the get-go. But the big difference is that even the best players can so easily strike out on any given day. Similarly can happen in NRL of course, when a gun gets injured or has a bad game but generally there is far more consistency. You can bring in Baz for his DGG of 15 points or someone like Henriquez bowls 3 overs one week and 0 the next, or a team gets flogged and your 4th ranked batsmen never sees the crease and scores a 0. Take Bravo for example, averages 90 for his first 4 games, then inexplicably 40 for his next 4, and he is one of the elite "guns" and yet that kind of scoring is pretty typical of all players bar Darcy Short. I mean of course there is some skill involved in picking form players, but I still think it involves so much more going your way to avoid those unlucky hiccups than any other fantasy sports game ive played. The good players have higher ceilings sure, but realistically everybody has a floor of 0 and can score poorly at the drop of a hat.

Onthebeatpete wrote:You ready for this year MF?
Time for some "updates" battles lmao

Been honing my skills for refreshing the stats sites in the offseason I'm ready for anything!

Pookus McFly wrote:

I had Maddinson and Carey from the get-go. But the big difference is that even the best players can so easily strike out on any given day. Similarly can happen in NRL of course, when a gun gets injured or has a bad game but generally there is far more consistency. You can bring in Baz for his DGG of 15 points or someone like Henriquez bowls 3 overs one week and 0 the next, or a team gets flogged and your 4th ranked batsmen never sees the crease and scores a 0. Take Bravo for example, averages 90 for his first 4 games, then inexplicably 40 for his next 4, and he is one of the elite "guns" and yet that kind of scoring is pretty typical of all players bar Darcy Short. I mean of course there is some skill involved in picking form players, but I still think it involves so much more going your way to avoid those unlucky hiccups than any other fantasy sports game ive played. The good players have higher ceilings sure, but realistically everybody has a floor of 0 and can score poorly at the drop of a hat.

I can agree there. A lot did go my way. Rookie move going for Henriques though, he hardly bowled last year and he's been terrible to start the Shield season

Hey guys, just thinking more about the byes, I feel from the start I need to look at guns from Cowboys, Souths, Sharks, Knights, Sea Eagles, Tigers, Eels and Roosters that won't make origin.

Next I need to choose whether any I think are value and start with them and then the rest become trade targets.

This locked Nathan Brown into my side because he feels undervalued, and I've gone with DCE to start but will he make origin?

The list I'm left with is:

Taumololo
Chricton
Gallen
Pearce
Taupau
Burgess
A Reynolds
Nofoaluma
Gutherson
Thurston

The only other two I feel could be undervalued are Thurston and A Reynolds. The rest I expect their prices to drop, although am worried if Chricton plays 80 minutes from the get go. Any thoughts?

I am hesitant to start with too many origin players, at the moment I am looking at Smith, Teddy and GI. Is Smith a must have this year if Cook and Lichaa play 80 minutes from the outset?

Warriors wrote:Hey guys, just thinking more about the byes, I feel from the start I need to look at guns from Cowboys, Souths, Sharks, Knights, Sea Eagles, Tigers, Eels and Roosters that won't make origin.

Next I need to choose whether any I think are value and start with them and then the rest become trade targets.

This locked Nathan Brown into my side because he feels undervalued, and I've gone with DCE to start but will he make origin?

The list I'm left with is:

Taumololo
Chricton
Gallen
Pearce
Taupau
Burgess
A Reynolds
Nofoaluma
Gutherson
Thurston

The only other two I feel could be undervalued are Thurston and A Reynolds. The rest I expect their prices to drop, although am worried if Chricton plays 80 minutes from the get go. Any thoughts?

I am hesitant to start with too many origin players, at the moment I am looking at Smith, Teddy and GI. Is Smith a must have this year if Cook and Lichaa play 80 minutes from the outset?

I think Smith is essential for the captain security. He's both the most likely to have a 60+ average come the end of year and a lot of serious players will have him so it protects your ranking too.
If you think the likes of Lolo or Chricton can roll on and maintain their scoring from last year then you can sacrifice smith for some cash generation but it's always hard to get Smith in with only two hookers and generally a 100k+ gap

Clack Bocks wrote:

I think Smith is essential for the captain security. He's both the most likely to have a 60+ average come the end of year and a lot of serious players will have him so it protects your ranking too.
If you think the likes of Lolo or Chricton can roll on and maintain their scoring from last year then you can sacrifice smith for some cash generation but it's always hard to get Smith in with only two hookers and generally a 100k+ gap

I think we could actually have 9 hookers in you squad this year if you really wanted. My thinking was if Lichaa and Cook look like getting 80 then you could have Cook, Lichaa and Garvey/Havilli to start. Then after 5 or 6 rounds bring Smith in for Lichaa and Garvey once they have peaked. Just a thought. However, would be gambling on a guy like Nathan Brown or someone like Teddy for captain. Like the thought of Teddy captain actually.

I too am liking all of Smith, Cook, Lichaa, Garvey even Macca if he's 80 minutes and ready for round 1.

I keep trying to tell myself Smith will not be essential this year with the way he was rested last year, but it's so damn hard to leave him out.

Safest thing to do is start with Smith, and 1/2/3 of Lichaa/Garvey/Havili/Cook on the bench

If they look like getting 80 after 2/3 rounds then revisit

Starting without Smith and having those choices blow up means it’s going to be tough to get Smith in early without a major facelift

The change to the reserve system removes the biggest hurdle to starting with a cheap hooker IMO. In years gone by if you start with a low priced hooker and they tank(Scott Moore) you are stuck with a dead position needing 300k to upgrade to a legitimate fantasy option. Now with the freedom to trade your bench players for someone with any position this is removed. If team lists shake out as expected it may be my first year starting without Smith. Will run the ever popular combo of Cook/Lichaa/Garvey and spend the cash elsewhere. If this turns out poorly it much simpler to downgrade one to a cow in another position and upgrade another to a gun hooker.

Welshy wrote:Safest thing to do is start with Smith, and 1/2/3 of Lichaa/Garvey/Havili/Cook on the bench

If they look like getting 80 after 2/3 rounds then revisit

Starting without Smith and having those choices blow up means it’s going to be tough to get Smith in early without a major facelift

Good point mate.

So what are people's expectations on Farah this year?
Play reserve grade, retire, get a move to superleague?

Alfie wrote:

I can agree there. A lot did go my way. Rookie move going for Henriques though, he hardly bowled last year and he's been terrible to start the Shield season

Well firstly lets not forget that I am a Rookie
But as you said, it is about maximizing double game players and Sixers picks were slim. Henriquez had come back the game before, taking 2 wickets in 3 overs and made 18 runs not out with an SR of 138 for a total of 81 points. Seemed like a good pickup to me but he spent both games just fielding after that for a total of 13 points in 2 games! I also had Jordan Silk who was averaging 50 across 5 games. Suddenly the bottom-dwelling Sixers destroy the Stars and Heat so convincingly that only 3 of their players even bat across the two games, and it turns out the man to have picked up was Daniel Hughes, who averaged 21.3 across 5 games but pulls out a 98 and Nic Maddinson, notorious for never making it to 50 but pulls out a 98 and 81 for his next two games.
My season is choc full of mishaps like this. Of course I brought in Cooper and Bravo this week, who seemed like solid selections, and one game in they netted 16 and 20
I don't want to rag on your most excellent ranking though (congrats btw), to be fair I am sure that next season when I do better I will also be sincerely convinced otherwise. Here is a better way to put it: Good seasons take skill, but bad seasons involve terrible luck
In that way it is exactly like NRL Fantasy

I suppose the "will Smith get rested?" question depends on whether you think Melbourne will stroll to the top two again, in which case he probably will. That's a judgement call... I think they likely will (along with Roosters) but others may differ. Also Brandon Smith looks a really, really good prospect so might see time off the bench, or played with Cameron moving to a half role (and less tackles).

These things probably won't happen, but there's more uncertainty over CS9s exact role than usual, and at top dollar there might be better options to start the season when - compared to previous years - you need a far greater proportion of your squad to make money (as opposed to just points) from the off if you're going to be able to afford the best final 17.

What I suppose I'm saying is that the most important selections for the first round (other than complete golden base-price cows) are going to be the 500-600k players who are going to average 50 and rise to 750-800k. If not having Smith means you can get two more of those then it's maybe, *maybe* worth not starting with Smith.

rhinoceroo wrote:I suppose the "will Smith get rested?" question depends on whether you think Melbourne will stroll to the top two again, in which case he probably will. That's a judgement call... I think they likely will (along with Roosters) but others may differ. Also Brandon Smith looks a really, really good prospect so might see time off the bench, or played with Cameron moving to a half role (and less tackles).

These things probably won't happen, but there's more uncertainty over CS9s exact role than usual, and at top dollar there might be better options to start the season when - compared to previous years - you need a far greater proportion of your squad to make money (as opposed to just points) from the off if you're going to be able to afford the best final 17.

What I suppose I'm saying is that the most important selections for the first round (other than complete golden base-price cows) are going to be the 500-600k players who are going to average 50 and rise to 750-800k. If not having Smith means you can get two more of those then it's maybe, *maybe* worth not starting with Smith.

Well put! This is what I was trying to get at by referring to Cook as POD: it's really CS9's absence that drives the difference. If Arrow / Napa / NAS / Cartwright / Lodge / Alvaro / JBrom turn up in that 150k-increase bracket, then trying to fill the deep bench with those high-return guys could be strong strategy.

Oh, and @SI  - its Broncos

Milchcow wrote:
So what are people's expectations on Farah this year?
Play reserve grade, retire, get a move to superleague?

I vote for another season of musical chairs, where Seibold runs either Cook or Farah as an 80 minute rake but keeps swapping them over after South Sydneys poor performances, yet never giving either one enough time in the hot seat to actually make it their own. But I am somewhat of a pessimist.

Thanks for the profiles Welshman. Really good stuff mate and making the pre season bearable!

Pookus McFly wrote:

Well firstly lets not forget that I am a Rookie
But as you said, it is about maximizing double game players and Sixers picks were slim. Henriquez had come back the game before, taking 2 wickets in 3 overs and made 18 runs not out with an SR of 138 for a total of 81 points. Seemed like a good pickup to me but he spent both games just fielding after that for a total of 13 points in 2 games! I also had Jordan Silk who was averaging 50 across 5 games. Suddenly the bottom-dwelling Sixers destroy the Stars and Heat so convincingly that only 3 of their players even bat across the two games, and it turns out the man to have picked up was Daniel Hughes, who averaged 21.3 across 5 games but pulls out a 98 and Nic Maddinson, notorious for never making it to 50 but pulls out a 98 and 81 for his next two games.
My season is choc full of mishaps like this. Of course I brought in Cooper and Bravo this week, who seemed like solid selections, and one game in they netted 16 and 20
I don't want to rag on your most excellent ranking though (congrats btw), to be fair I am sure that next season when I do better I will also be sincerely convinced otherwise. Here is a better way to put it: Good seasons take skill, but bad seasons involve terrible luck
In that way it is exactly like NRL Fantasy

I ended up trading Lyon, Brathwaite and Denly who all went fantastically. Denly was the top scorer in his domestic t20 cup back in England with two hundreds, Brathwaite is one of the better t20 players in the world right now and Lyon was unplayable last year in the BBL. Being new is kind of damaging to your prospects. Knowing that guys like these and players that showed promise before like Buttler and Khawaja is also very important. I also recommend jumping on international players. I started with Rashid Khan, Shadab Khan and McCleneghan at the start of the season and they absolutely killed it. Unknown bowlers always start well because hardly anyone has faced them before. Archer and Nabi also went really well. You'll be better next year I'm sure with knowledge of the previous year. Just remember that Christian, Henriques, Faulkner and other low priced all rounders are traps.

Milchcow wrote:
So what are people's expectations on Farah this year?
Play reserve grade, retire, get a move to superleague?

Start the year with musical chairs in the hooker rotation then get an injury when Seibold gets a little more confidence then retires. Ego too big to play ressies (he was sticking it to the man at the Tigers) and refuses to go to ESL.