2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 17

mattnz wrote:Havilis score is inflated by a try in playing 30 minutes week 1. Without the try everyone would have been down on his prospects

Yes his score was inflated. Who cares? that's exactly what you want. He's not a keeper we know that. Because of that good start though, if he scores 30's from now on he will make 200k all up. No one's saying to trade him in, just not to trade him out while he's still making money.

Milchcow wrote:Just looked up some stats on Jeremy Marshall-King in NSW Cup last year

Averaged around 32 fantasy points a game, but that was playing about 60 minutes at hooker.

Very little attacking involvement - 4 tries, 2 try assists and 4 line break assists across 19 games.

Not sure how that will change with the move from hooker to halves

I'd expect him to share the km's with Foran. That should help.

Looking at Tevita Pangai Junior is if he scores the following

40 points - maxes out in about 4 weeks, roughly 580k (110k profit)
45 points - maxes out in about 6 weeks, roughly 645k (175k profit)
50 points - mazes out in about 8 weeks, roughly 722k (250k profit)

Last game minute breakdown (of non 80 minute players)
Thaiday = 21 mins
Ofahengaue = 39 mins
Sims = 34 mins
Lodge = 47 mins

Question is that if both Gillett and Glenn play 80 mins and Mcguire 60 mins then how does TPJ improve his based on the above?

So if he continues on 40 minutes at 1 ppm minimum then he should at least 40 points but unsure how much more he gets over than the big game.
The big games over the year may push his average closer to 45 as long as he has no quiet games

Nelson Asofa Solomona last year and Addin Fonua Blake are similar players with similar minutes (along with long names haha)
I am not sure he gets Fifita minutes especially if you add a 4th forward in Su'a to this pack as well

Boozecluez wrote:Looking at Tevita Pangai Junior is if he scores the following

40 points - maxes out in about 4 weeks, roughly 580k (110k profit)
45 points - maxes out in about 6 weeks, roughly 645k (175k profit)
50 points - mazes out in about 8 weeks, roughly 722k (250k profit)

Last game minute breakdown (of non 80 minute players)
Thaiday = 21 mins
Ofahengaue = 39 mins
Sims = 34 mins
Lodge = 47 mins

Question is that if both Gillett and Glenn play 80 mins and Mcguire 60 mins then how does TPJ improve his based on the above?

So if he continues on 40 minutes at 1 ppm minimum then he should at least 40 points but unsure how much more he gets over than the big game.
The big games over the year may push his average closer to 45 as long as he has no quiet games

Solid. My thoughts exactly. He'll make money, how much is the question. And will he be a keeper, maybe but I'm gonna be stubborn and say no. But if you've got him already ride that wave as long as you can I say.

mulvy wrote:

I'd expect him to share the km's with Foran. That should help.

I'm tossing up between JMK and Robinson. or maybe just holding Katoa for loop possibilities.

Using Katoa to loop with Kikau is very tempting this week. If Kikau goes big again you keep his score. If he gives a shitty bench performance then get him out of there.

Milchcow wrote:Just looked up some stats on Jeremy Marshall-King in NSW Cup last year

Averaged around 32 fantasy points a game, but that was playing about 60 minutes at hooker.

Very little attacking involvement - 4 tries, 2 try assists and 4 line break assists across 19 games.

Not sure how that will change with the move from hooker to halves

Where can you find NSW cup stats?

Boozecluez wrote:Looking at Tevita Pangai Junior is if he scores the following

40 points - maxes out in about 4 weeks, roughly 580k (110k profit)
45 points - maxes out in about 6 weeks, roughly 645k (175k profit)
50 points - mazes out in about 8 weeks, roughly 722k (250k profit)

Last game minute breakdown (of non 80 minute players)
Thaiday = 21 mins
Ofahengaue = 39 mins
Sims = 34 mins
Lodge = 47 mins

Question is that if both Gillett and Glenn play 80 mins and Mcguire 60 mins then how does TPJ improve his based on the above?

So if he continues on 40 minutes at 1 ppm minimum then he should at least 40 points but unsure how much more he gets over than the big game.
The big games over the year may push his average closer to 45 as long as he has no quiet games

Nelson Asofa Solomona last year and Addin Fonua Blake are similar players with similar minutes (along with long names haha)
I am not sure he gets Fifita minutes especially if you add a 4th forward in Su'a to this pack as well

I think an average of least 40 is very doable and a profit of $150k is certainly a reasonable expectation. Just need him to have another big score just before you want to cash out to give him that little boost, and then swap to whatever final 17 player you can best afford.

If you had him from the start there's no way you trade him out yet. If you haven't  got him then he is worth consideration, although not sure he is a must have.

mulvy wrote:

Solid. My thoughts exactly. He'll make money, how much is the question. And will he be a keeper, maybe but I'm gonna be stubborn and say no. But if you've got him already ride that wave as long as you can I say.

I talked him up big pre season on here and ended up starting with Arrow based on the broncos bench.
You are correct that if you started with him then you get the full benefit and was still a good choice, but I don't think he is a keeper unless he can get up to 50 minutes.

Milchcow wrote:

I'm tossing up between JMK and Robinson. or maybe just holding Katoa for loop possibilities.

Using Katoa to loop with Kikau is very tempting this week. If Kikau goes big again you keep his score. If he gives a shitty bench performance then get him out of there.

I was also considering Robinson but I need him this week in my WFB and I can just see Coach Robbo punting him for Maubbs instead and reaming me good and proper. And then JMK popped up, so I NEED him to go well. If I wish hard enough it will happen right?

mattnz wrote:

Where can you find NSW cup stats?

They used to publish them weekly in a "stats amazing" round up - eg https://www.nswrl.com.au/news/2017/05/24/stats-amazing--isp-nsw-round-11/ 

I saved the first 8 rounds but it involved some manual work, so I saved most of it for the off-season. Then then bloody nrl.com site redesigned and all the stats links disappeared, so my spreadsheet is incomplete

They published a detailed end of season summary which has tonnes of stats, which I saved a copy of, I'll have a quick look to see if I can find the link.



edit: stast link 
https://www.nswrl.com.au/siteassets/2017/12/2017_nsw_intrust_super_premiership_report.compressed.pdf

Milchcow wrote:

I think an average of least 40 is very doable and a profit of $150k is certainly a reasonable expectation. Just need him to have another big score just before you want to cash out to give him that little boost, and then swap to whatever final 17 player you can best afford.

If you had him from the start there's no way you trade him out yet. If you haven't  got him then he is worth consideration, although not sure he is a must have.

I was looking at him as well for this cash rise too, but then say Doueihi potentially makes that 150k but in half the time (3 weeks) based on a 40 average.
If it's quick cash then there are better options, if you need to however downgrade a failing gun then he could be a good stop gap with potential to stay there.

mattnz wrote:Havilis score is inflated by a try in playing 30 minutes week 1. Without the try everyone would have been down on his prospects

So what happened in week 2?

Milchcow wrote:

I'm tossing up between JMK and Robinson. or maybe just holding Katoa for loop possibilities.

Using Katoa to loop with Kikau is very tempting this week. If Kikau goes big again you keep his score. If he gives a shitty bench performance then get him out of there.

I'm going JMK because I'm still a conservative player even after telling myself to go for the explosive guys this year like TPJ

But the way the cheap backs have started the year, Robinson could well make me look stupid by bypassing him based on previous years fantasy scores and going for the safter half selection in JMK

code delta wrote:
So what happened in week 2?

He started at hooker like usual but then came back on as a lock and made a bunch of hitups
There were a couple injuries in that Raiders game but he went ok at this role

Who knows with Sticky though

Welshy wrote:
I'm going JMK because I'm still a conservative player even after telling myself to go for the explosive guys this year like TPJ

But the way the cheap backs have started the year, Robinson could well make me look stupid by bypassing him based on previous years fantasy scores and going for the safter half selection in JMK

Thing with JMK is if you wait a week then you may lose a little bit of $$$ initially but this dictates how his earning will go.

Eg if the Dogs go well and he scores 45, then you know his role and earning potential is safe for a while so you bring him in next week(ie Doueihi Mk2)
If the dogs lose and he scores 20, then his price stalls and there is every chance Nu Brown could get a game in a week or 2.

Or something crazy happens and Brown gets some time in the halves this week, so why not wait a week for a cheap look?

Early days but Cook would have to be in the short list for origin right?

Starting to think I should just skip TPJ and do Croft > SJ and Lichaa > Murray

What do you reckon & what option do you like for my 2nd trade. Thanks in advance:
(a) Nicholls out - C. Thompson in (for the cash rise) or
(b) Nicholls out - C. Murray in (for the points)

My first trade was Croft to Doueihi

Current team including Doueihi:
Smith (c)
Arrow, Lodge
Jurbo, N. Brown, RFM
Doueihi, Carty
Mitchell, Kennar
Tedesco, Ponga, Isaako

Cook, Griffin, JFH, Rochow
Kikau, L. Croker, Havili, Nicholls

Boozecluez wrote:

Thing with JMK is if you wait a week then you may lose a little bit of $$$ initially but this dictates how his earning will go.

Eg if the Dogs go well and he scores 45, then you know his role and earning potential is safe for a while so you bring him in next week(ie Doueihi Mk2)
If the dogs lose and he scores 20, then his price stalls and there is every chance Nu Brown could get a game in a week or 2.

The only thing the next round will tell us is his role not his earning really, could bust out a 50 then fall flat with 20s the next few rounds

Being dropped after 2 rounds probably mean Frawley won't be back any time soon, Cleeland is injured isn't he, that's a worry if the dogs keep losing

but I'm happy to bring him in at base price and see how he goes

SoylentGreen wrote:Starting to think I should just skip TPJ and do Croft > SJ and Lichaa > Murray

Hell yeah. Great moves mate.