NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 34

code delta wrote:Need to decide between Tolo or Hess.
I think one of them joins my team this week.

Take off the try (with a couple TB's from the try) and Taumalolo only scores 48-50.

I'm keeping Harris... outside of his score of 8 this week, he's one of the Nrl fantasy top 10 players at the moment. It would be sideways to trade him out

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Take off the try (with a couple TB's from the try) and Taumalolo only scores 48-50.

Sounds pretty good to me considering there were 26 errors and 23 penalties. Very stop start. He would normally do even better I would have thought.

BUMP
Rochow to Taumalolo/Matterson and bank the other trade
Or
Rochow to Aitken and TPJ to CWalker/Guth

And if the first option which out of Taumalolo or Matterson should I pick?

danseels1985 wrote:BUMP
Rochow to Taumalolo/Matterson and bank the other trade
Or
Rochow to Aitken and TPJ to CWalker/Guth

And if the first option which out of Taumalolo or Matterson should I pick?

Do you need a half?

How much longer are we expecting Havili to be good for? Priced at around 32, could score anywhere between 20 and 45 with Ricky as coach.

danseels1985 wrote:BUMP
Rochow to Taumalolo/Matterson and bank the other trade
Or
Rochow to Aitken and TPJ to CWalker/Guth

And if the first option which out of Taumalolo or Matterson should I pick?

This really depends on where you are weakest and could use the biggest upgrade.

I honestly like trade two, unless you already have two keeper centres, or desperately need a half upgrade.

For me, Tlolo > Matterson unless you need a half more than an forward, and CWalker > Gutherson at this stage (until we see more Gutho).

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

At 344k if he had the 80 min CTR spot nailed down he averages 33ish there in past seasons. Lots of low minute games off the bench in various spots has pulled his price down. Thats 100k ish of potential there. Also more of a known commodity unlike the rookie cows.

The 40 he got on the weekend is closer to his starting 2nd row average and shouldn't be expected week in and out as a CTR. Definitely not a good trade as I'm certain he's not the first choice centre and will eventually return to the bench for 20 mins a game.

Not the best idea by any stretch but certainly not that crazy. Hopefully it ends now before its the T-Rein of this week.

NB: All numbers from memory but should be close enough for the purpose.

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you are one of those trying to justify it) Aubbs is a known quantity. Hoping that he'll get 80 at CTR is stupid. KNOWING what he will do is why everyone avoids the bloke like the plague.

mulvy wrote:I want to do Thurston to Matterson but it would require a second trade so unless a good cheapie pops up I might as well not trade this week. Also gives a week to look at the Knights halves.

I got rid of JT last week for Dugan
I'm running with JMK for the time being whose been averaging 35-40 (aside from a dud game of 8 points). I'm going to wait and see how the Knights halves shape up... (I also have Doueihi in my EMG atm)... once DCE bottoms out I might pick him up in a few weeks time.

when your 4 emergency bench players outscore your starting front rowers (15 & 18), halves (19 & 23) & centres (27 & 29) 135 to 131... the joys of playing fantasy

@mulvy @vanish

This is my team before trades
309k bank
Cook
Fifita TPJ
Murray Arrow RFM
DCE Mbye
Mitchell Isaako
Tedesco Ponga Thompson

Smith
JFH
Kikau
Rochow

Sua
Gosiewski
JMK
Fine

Don't really need a HLF but Walker/Guth gives me that flexibility with Mbye,don't really want to be playing Isaako every week too. I could just do Rochow to Aitken and keep the other trade?

code delta wrote:Need to decide between Tolo or Hess.
I think one of them joins my team this week.

For the season:

Taumalolo (801k) vs Hess (784k)

367 vs 384 points
405 vs 506 mins
1 vs 4 Tries
2 vs 5 Linebreaks
199 v 216 Tackles
30 v 29 TBs
15 vs 14 MTs
6 vs 6 Offloads
8 vs 6 Errors
4 vs 7 Penalties
1066 vs 716 metres

For me the key points are bolded. Hess getting 80 mins vs Taumalolo's 55 pushes me to favour Hess as thats effectively 1.5x the minutes compared to the 1.2x as shown on season long stats.

Hess will have about 50 less run metres than Lolo per game but by virtue of where he plays is more likely to get the big plays. See a similar fantasy floor(40) and ceiling (85+) for both of them. If I was building a team in real life I take Lolo every time but in fantasy they are practically the same player. Lolo wont have Origin duties is the only other thing to consider.

Depends on if you believe the Lolo has been down in form these first few rounds and is ready to carry like he did last year. That being said I'd probably take a chance on Hess. Has anyone done a comparison of Lolo this year vs last. Where are his "missing points"?

Vanish wrote:How much longer are we expecting Havili to be good for? Priced at around 32, could score anywhere between 20 and 45 with Ricky as coach.

BE in the mid-twenties - I'm giving him one more week.
I don't see him scoring lower than 20 so shouldn't lose too much cash even if he does get lowered minutes again.

Mearcats wrote:

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you are one of those trying to justify it) Aubbs is a known quantity. Hoping that he'll get 80 at CTR is stupid. KNOWING what he will do is why everyone avoids the bloke like the plague.

Maubbs is probably one of the only guys where the fact that he's a known quantity is simultaneously a great and terrible thing at the same time.

Do NOT trade in Rapana. I watch the games closely, and he's just never involved. He might have been a gun previously but the Raiders seem to prefer involving Croker / Cotric in their attack. Also, teams kick their side more than Rapana's side, about 3 to 1. As much as I rate him, he can't score with no ball. I've resigned myself to leaving him in my emergencies as he's already dropped too much cash. Should've jumped off 4 rounds ago...

Burgess would be nice in the FRF but with Murray at Lock, he won't score at the gun level. In saying that, gun FRF scoring seems around mid to high 40s if you don't include Fifita.

I'm not entirely sold on Fifita though. He hasn't been very consistent this season, and his minutes won't be that high once Sharks get all their injuries back. Great price though, and I can flick some dead weight / peaked cows for him.

Matterson seems like a great half option or bench DPP cover. I'm going to pass on him because he isn't a target and I've missed all the value... DCE to him wouldn't be sideways if DCE continues to bomb.

Isaac Luke is looking like a POD option now that Macca is out. Kind of slower version of Cook on attack.

Guerra is looking an excellent POD that regularly hits 50 due to his work rate. Not going to get you 70s but very consistent.

Seeing Higano play more mins than Havili tilted me quite a bit over the weekend. So much potential in Higano as a fantasy player but not getting the minutes

danseels1985 wrote:@mulvy @vanish

This is my team before trades
309k bank
Cook
Fifita TPJ
Murray Arrow RFM
DCE Mbye
Mitchell Isaako
Tedesco Ponga Thompson

Smith
JFH
Kikau
Rochow

Sua
Gosiewski
JMK
Fine

Don't really need a HLF but Walker/Guth gives me that flexibility with Mbye,don't really want to be playing Isaako every week too. I could just do Rochow to Aitken and keep the other trade?

Yeah I really like Aitken to pair with Mitchell, just lock in keeper centres and then don't worry about it this year. Really nice team, although that forth bench spot looks tricky.
Don't see the need for CWalker or Gutho. MBye is ideally your third keeper WFB. I'd be looking to upgrade Thompson to a gun half to pair with DCE, since I'd expect a SJ, Ben Hunt, Cleary or Matterson to score more points than Walker over the season. JMK gives you some flexibility and coverage in your half and WFB positions at this stage anyway.

Rochow is a sell and I think Tlolo, Matterson and Aitken are all good buys. So go for whomever you prefer.

It's so foreign to see Smith on peoples benches.

Seems so wrong.

hymenbustas wrote:Seeing Higano play more mins than Havili tilted me quite a bit over the weekend. So much potential in Higano as a fantasy player but not getting the minutes

Yep... and he's not a hooker.
I fear he's going to become another Pita Godinet. Talented half that turns into a journeyman hooker benchie.

danseels1985 wrote:@mulvy @vanish

This is my team before trades
309k bank
Cook
Fifita TPJ
Murray Arrow RFM
DCE Mbye
Mitchell Isaako
Tedesco Ponga Thompson

Smith
JFH
Kikau
Rochow

Sua
Gosiewski
JMK
Fine

Don't really need a HLF but Walker/Guth gives me that flexibility with Mbye,don't really want to be playing Isaako every week too. I could just do Rochow to Aitken and keep the other trade?

I like the Rochow to Lolo trade. As Vanish said you don't need Calker/Guth. Give TPJ one more week to see how the new bench/hooker rotation pans out.