NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 37

Not liking MBye losing his goal kicking as he struggles for all the points he gets already (when the Dogs actually do get on the board) but maybe, just maybe he gets more involved and can get his hands on the ball more and potentially get some extra TB's that won't get counted.

Hey guys, this thread has been moving pretty quickly today. Just wondering if we could get a list on all the value/cashie options discussed so far:

Cogger
Lane
Tyrone Phillips
Fonua

Any I've missed?

How long does Lane have a starting 2RF spot? Till Gosie gets back?

Rapture_NRL wrote:Hey guys, this thread has been moving pretty quickly today. Just wondering if we could get a list on all the value/cashie options discussed so far:

Cogger
Lane
Tyrone Phillips
Fonua

Any I've missed?

I like Cogger because of his cheapness and great base stats, also in a position where he gets his hands on the ball a lot to create attacking point totals (he hasn't yet mind) 

Probably Lane has the highest ceiling but he costs the most and unsure on when Gos back

Fonuas place is too much up in the air for me

Can't comment on Phillips

surely Su'a is still a better trade in than Lane as well! He is cheaper with a higher ceiling in a better side

Rapture_NRL wrote:@Jstevens269 Welcome mate! Good to have you on board. Do you get a chance to watch the games?

For me I'm tossing up between Tolo and Surgess. Tolo's game against the Titans was inflated by the try with all the TBs. But with Surgess, he's coming into a side with Murray who can play big minutes, a f Tom Burgess is killing it too. His role might not be as big when he gets back. This is why I want to hold Brown, because apart from injury, he's going to have a load of work.

I am able to watch several games per week. I ponied up and bought the watchnrl subscription. I'm in the same boat in regards to Tolo and Surgess. Tolo has seemed pretty dependent on tries to bump his scores up to gun level, and Surgess is coming back into a team that seems to be coming into form without him. I do like that Surgess is DPP while Tolo isn't. It is tough to hold Brown considering he will come back after 7 weeks off and most likely be eased in.

Welshy wrote:
I like Cogger because of his cheapness and great base stats, also in a position where he gets his hands on the ball a lot to create attacking point totals (he hasn't yet mind) 

I'm just scared to pull the trigger with Lamb looming. I don't know how we can be so sure than Lamb won't see first grade again this season.

Boozecluez wrote:

Let's assume he comes back round 13 and goes straight back into the starting lineup and scores his 31 average for 3 weeks.
He makes an additional 60k over these 3 weeks bringing him up to just over 400k.
At this stage he has been in your squad for almost 8 weeks, made you 60k and given it's now round 18 (after the manly bye) you probably can't be bothered to trade him out for 120k profit.

But you stubbornly get your 150k profit..... eventually
I see where you are coming from though, but this is all guess work and the only thing we know for sure is his hand is broken and won't be playing for a while

Saying that, if you want to keep him that's cool, but the longer the season goes the less cash you need as the upgrades to players have less effect (a 5 pt upgrade for 8 weeks only gives you 40 points all up)

He's already made $80k, likely plays 13, can save a trade / make a better trade and make more cash. Not a player like Brown burning a hole in my pocket as not intended to play in my 17 each week.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/2018/05/02/19/44/trent-barrett-crisis-meeting-manly-sea-eagles-nrl

Manly supposedly in breach of Barrett's contract around staffing/ support. 

First reaction was wow more manly drama, but after reading the article this seems like  another non-story/media blowing more stuff up given club apparently addressing his resourcing issues?

wolfking wrote:

I'm just scared to pull the trigger with Lamb looming.  I don't know how we can be so sure than Lamb won't see first grade again this season.

After reading some news articles it's definitely Cogger's spot to lose. Some players have been talking him up and there's no mention of Lamb from anything I've read. Obviously if Cogger has a couple of bad games in a row he will be under pressure (like Croft was) but he was solid in the win last week so he's got a few weeks of playing at least and even longer if he stays in solid form.

MilfordTheMagician wrote:

After reading some news articles it's definitely Cogger's spot to lose. Some players have been talking him up and there's no mention of Lamb from anything I've read. Obviously if Cogger has a couple of bad games in a row he will be under pressure (like Croft was) but he was solid in the win last week so he's got a few weeks of playing at least and even longer if he stays in solid form.

Yeah fair enough mate. The win last week sure wouldn't have done him any harm.

Would you rather run Matterson in the 2rf with 2 gun halves or run an extra gun forward?

That is the question I am asking myself right now and wondering if it is worth a gamble on say Hunt (while he is still reasonable)

Long term would like an insurance plan to cover the halves so that was my thinking now, 2rf is easy to cover but a decent half is expensive and with Johnson/Cleary injury issues it leaves me less than confident.

So it would be something like Surgess v Hunt $$$ wise as an example.
I think it's a case of higher floor, lower ceiling with Surgess but tempted by Hunt's base stats now he has found his part in the Dragons, along with the chance of a big score thrown in.

Is this crazy thinking or am I just being tempted by his vein of form overlooking his high 30/ mid 40 scores every second week?
End of the day it's his average you are buying and think he tops out around 850k

Though could go Taumalolo as well this week, which will probably be what happens if I go the safe way haha
Cleary will be back around Origin time so could pull the trigger on him then I suppose if I want another half, also more time to see how Johnson goes with his groin too.

@Boozecluez Matterson will be on my bench at some point but I feel dirty cause I could've had him 100k cheaper so he'll be last in

Looking at Hunt, he is kinda flying under the radar fantasy wise. Everyone is focusing on DCE, SJ and Matterson so I think he's a great option.

Rapture_NRL wrote:@Boozecluez Matterson will be on my bench at some point but I feel dirty cause I could've had him 100k cheaper so he'll be last in

Currently I have as my 'long term halves' DCE and Matterson so no real need to change anything here if I get another forward.
I would be bringing a third into the mix

anyone thinks Paseka can maintain his 35 minute cameo with a 30avg till Gosiewski comes back?

Its hard to get a read on that Manly bench.

luckynumber8 wrote:Looking at Hunt, he is kinda flying under the radar fantasy wise. Everyone is focusing on DCE, SJ and Matterson so I think he's a great option.

It's the 5% ownership that appeals too and I reckon the 1000 odd teams above me only a small amount would have.
You always wish you did it last week but there are always more urgent trades, this week I have some cash and no real urgent moves so it's now or never.
The recent tries over the past 2 weeks though mask a bit of his score and make him a hard read to know if he is in that 'gun' status

Worth having some fun and rolling the dice was my thinking
Same reason Rapana will probably come in this week for Thompson

Boozecluez wrote:

It's the 5% ownership that appeals too and I reckon the 1000 odd teams above me only a small amount would have.
Same reason Rapana will come in this week too

Worth having some fun and rolling the dice was my thinking

They are both capable of 90s on their day too (but also 20s, unfortunately).

My analysis on a few popular trade in targets this week


Kurt Capewell, $338k (22.5 points)
5 career starts at 2nd row - scores of 39, 47, 31, 26, 43
Average as centre is 32 (discounting the 106 in an origin round last year, 40 if you include the 106)
Job security is a bit iffy - Lewis and Gallen to return, and no guarantees he even stays 2nd row come final team lists with Sorenson relegating him to the bench in round 7 this year
Being selectable at CTR is obviously a big plus, but the big concern is he might return to a bench role and lose money.


Jaydn Su'a, $406k (27 points)
7 career starts in 2nd row, average of 35.8
Job security pretty good in the medium term (unless Gillett and McGuire emulate McCullough in making miraculous recoveries)
I see little chance of losing money, but the big question is whether he'll make enough to justify a trade in.
I think if you got him in a few weeks ago you are laughing, but probably its too late to join the train if you missed out.

Shaun Lane, $429k (28.5 points)
10 career starts in the 2nd row, for an average of 42 points, only 2 scores under 35.
Job security appears safe for the next month or so with Gosiewski having a broken hand.
Ideally he keeps the spot after Gosiewski's return, but can't be guaranteed. he's at his 3rd club and is yet to string together any real big runs of starts

Jack Cogger, $282k (19 points)
4 starts in the halves, scores of 7, 39, 22, 33
Paired with Connor Watson, looks to be the chief general play kicker, which should see him avoid truly terrible scores.
The 33 he scored last week included literally no attacking stats - 21 tackles, 76 run meters, 266 kick meters and -8 in negatives were his only stats.
So a base of low 30s with potential for higher seems like a reasonable score estimate.
Brock Lamb potentially coming back into the team is the main job security issue.

Esan Marsters, $574k (38 points)
Averaging 39 points a game this year, despite not scoring a try.
Lolohea's return to the Tigers team, should it happen, would see him lose goal kicking - he is currently getting 5 points a game from goal kicks.
Last year he averaged 38 points from 11 games at Tigers (5 tries in these games)
Personally, without reliable goal kicking I feel he falls a bit below keeper status.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:By the way, you guys think this comp is poorly run. Im currently playing in a free comp (with prizes) for Super Rugby. Here's a run down of the major errors they made this season:

1) Rules stated 3 trades per round but people were able to make unlimited trades after round 1
2) I have owned a player who changed clubs during the off season, during the season they scored that player properly, then 3 weeks ago his profile changed so that he was back playing with his old club and all his stats were set to zero - my round totals fell accordingly.
3) since daylight savings lockout for the round is now 1 hour after when the first game starts (and still is).

Complete muppets I'm winning though