Trials and Tribulations of a NRL Fantasy Coach 2019 - End result 40th

2019 !!! LETS GO !!!!




Back for another round of Fantasy, call it being stubborn or addiction but will give this another crack in 2019
Like a red large curly 'big papi' pube, this thread will have plenty of lengthy twists with the odd surprise stuck in between.

For new people I will post how I go each week, try and give some insight into my trades for the week and post anything else I can think of.
Pre Season I will try and make a short list of players, backed up with data but alot of the action will take place once teams are named for RD 1
I will edit quite a bit on the first few posts as I go, it is helpful for me for brainstorming ideas and recording information but happy for all to see.

Anyways feel free to comment, make suggestions and add to the conversation in here
Worst case you get a free green rep thumbs up from me for stopping by haha

About myself, I am just an average early 30s kiwi bloke who lives in Sydney,follows the Sharks and have played this game for many years.


Previous years of doing this thread

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t212-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-nrl-fantasy-coach-from-31193-to-38-overall-roller-coaster-2016-blog
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t420-trials-and-tribulations-of-an-nrl-fantasy-coach-2017-round-14-trades-update-08-06
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t626-trials-and-tribulations-of-an-nrl-fantasy-coach-2018-end-result-164th

Starting team and strategy , 231k remaining

Every year I have had this fantasy about having a team full of hookers.
This might also be a good year to try this as a few hookers are discounted slightly, and the cows look alright too so who has ever said no to a package deal....
The only shame is I can't play with more than 5 hookers.After that things get a bit awkward and expensive haha
Unlike in my real life, the wife has no say in this Fantasy.

One reason I am coming around to a bunch of hookers was that they always start well over the first few weeks and it's looking wet (So plenty of tackles and a lot of wet hookers double entendre)
Basically relying on base stats over attacking stats and with the emphasis on less downtime (penalties/stoppages) should mean more tackles and perhaps more darts out of dummy half (Tired forwards).
With the reduction of the interchange next year as well (down to 6) there will be an even bigger emphasis on running a versatile back/2rf interchange on the bench, so more chance of 80min hookers too

Most gun hookers on average have a very low floor due to high base stats so you should get good stable scores from your guns to start with and allow you to pick up value players in other positions.
By spending a large amount of your cap on these high priced players should result in good points, so in reality you want them to be stable too.
So less emphasis on boom bust players that start poor and bleed cash due to low minutes, have a slow start or poor form due to other mitigating factors.
With grabbing them later you can cherry pick the effected ones for a cheaper price and fill in the gaps in the team as they become available.

See if you get your gun picks wrong early it can be hard to fix too and you are playing catch up all season, needing cash for other fixes while they drop in price each week tempting you to trade them out.
You just need a stable platform to start your season
You only get 2 trades a week early on too, so how do you fix these positions, bring in the right cows and then throw in injuries and suspensions.... You just don't get enough trades full stop so take away this scenario.
Back in the day you stacked your bench with cows, so why not stack the bench with potential year long keepers? Regardless of players 1-17 you get the same points regardless of where they are.

So this should result in removing most of the risk of starting with a poor gun or getting stuck with under performing ones .
Should also give me time to see their form, pick up the fallen guns in a few weeks time if they are benched or start badly (ie Crichton) allow me to ride the cows up to them.
This will put more risk in the cows performing, but the fact a lot of people are playing them to start the year, it is mitigated if they do score bad.

The downside of this strategy is that hookers generally have less upside over a high ceiling gun like Taumalolo/Taupau/Tedesco/Dce/Fifita etc
On the slim chance all these boom/bust player fire then you are probably chasing the pack, but the hardest part of preseason is knowing which gun will fire/fail so people usually end up with a few misses.

For the rest of the team see below
Starting with a weak WFB, you are paying for pts per $$$ . If they can score 80 points combined they will do the job.You have paid for 52pts remember and nothing feels worse than a mid range or gun back scoring 20.
Also gives some loophole potential later if one is dropped...... If I decide to go there (Never been a fan but it doesn't look like it will being fixed anytime soon)
By going bottom dollar it also gives me 230k up my sleeve to jump on any missed cows, along with maximise the price rise of these backs low BE's
With the way Fantasy works too, you can't afford to jump on a bottom priced cow late otherwise you miss out on all value so having lots means I should be covered.

Haven taken the similar strategy for FRF/HLF/CTR to the WFB. Though I have opted for one mid range + 1 cow for a little more mid term stability
Again I will focus on cash generation from cows with good timing to fallen guns or value picks as they become available and play them alongside the mid rangers (ie Tolman/Morgan/Capewell).
Then when I get to a later stage in the season, I can upgrade the mid range player to high priced guns (though this isn't a priority)

I don't want to be making knee jerk trades early (by paying top dollar for players) as that means more cows you have to find to pay for the rest of your team.
The sooner your final team comes together the better as well so kill 2 birds with one stone (Or one big jack bird with one stone).

It's all Risk V Reward but if it works then I hope to get off to a flyer. If not then you will get the entertainment of me starting poorly while trying to rebuild (Like every other year haha)

TLDR This strategy is to start with 5 good Hookers for stable scores, stack up on cows and cut price keepers then bring in fallen guns who misfire on opening rounds

Priced average based on $14,600, data goes back 4 years for career
While I realise a full 80mins is unrealistic, depending on game volume will use this as a standard for full 80min players for a best case scenario


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Hooker

Damian Cook -969k (66pts) Prediction 65pts
Paying for stable captain scores, the best player in 2018 and highest scorer and a good chance of doing the same this year.
Can't see him dropping off in 2019, is a vital cog in the Rabbitohs attack and plays 80mins.
While he may not always have the highest score each week, his floor means you won't lose out either.
Ultimately you are paying double his season average (assuming if you don't gamble on different players each week) so going to take out the stress and go with Captain Cookie

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Dylan Napa - 355k (24pts) Prediction 35pts
2018 stats @ (24pts)
Career stats before 2018 @ (38pts)
All comes down to what Napa we get. If he can roll back some old form in a new team then he will be gold
If we get the 2018 Napa then he will still might make cash with extra minutes but be a very slow burn to get the $$ out of him
Due to the player ownership and his price, will start with him as he is an easy swap out for a better cow if he fails.
The main difference between the years is his errors, so if he can cut this down then we may see those better scores.
He should get decent minutes and was their big off season signing, but who knows how he will actually be used.

Aiden Tolman - 572k (39pts) Prediction 48pts
Career avg 48pts
2018 avg @ 60mins = 48pts
He is an old school forward and gives you stable scores. Big motor and capable of playing big minutes he just needs to stay on the field to score well
Downside is he needs decent minutes, but at worst he makes he you $$ slowly and an easy upgrade, though could push into keeper territory if he can average 50pts
You basically get what it says on the box, though at a decent discount

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Jai Arrow - 753k (51pts) predicted 60pts
Break out year in 2018 resulted in making the QLD origin team, When fit and healthy he can average 60pts with his high PPM and work rate
Though he had a couple injuries and playing through it in Origin resulted in a poor end of the year for his earlier pedigree.
He is worth starting with and should score well, at worst he is a keeper in the 2rf and that says something.
Downsides are the titans pack is stacked so may not get the minutes he needs to put him in the top tier of fantasy, and staying injury free

Cameron Murray - 595k (41pts) predicted 50pts
2018 avg @ 60 mins (52pts)
Big year ahead Cameron, really stepped up last year but due to the pack he had limited minutes.
Now with Crichton gone and a pack reshuffle, finally gets a chance to make it how own.

Luke Garner -340k (23pts) prediction 35pts
Only played a few games last year but when he got his chance and played over 50mins averaged 38
Should get a month or 2 in the role if he can play well and make the position his own maybe longer.
Capable of a try he is a great line runner, though watching him play hewill probably need attacking stats to push his average higher.
With all the 2rf players at the tigers his job security is medium, but with Claw out with injury and if they can win a few games then who knows
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Michael Morgan 450k (31pts) prediction 45pts
Career avg @ hlf 60 games (43pts)
With no Thurston and all the extra responsibility means he should go back to his career average at minimum
Depending on his halves partner he will gain all the kicking duties too, so potential to score even higher with higher base stats.

Adam Keighran - 212k (15pts) prediction 35pts
Big frame for a half and out of 'that' Penrith side that killed it in u20's. Played ctr there so has a decent running game along with a big boot.
Will kick goals too, so pretty much an auto include to start the year and play in the scoring 17

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Briton Nikora -212k (15pts) prediction 35pts
Big wraps on the kid, junior kiwi and a solid year for the jets means he will be given a shot on the edge for the sharks to start the year.
He was a great edge runner last year and can hit a gap, (ala Lewis) and has also been working with him in the offseason so don't be suprised if he can emulate his mentor.

Kurt Capewell 428k (29pts) prediction 45pts
Career avg at 2RF 5 games (42pts) @ CTR 13 games (39pts)
If he can start at 2rf then he is great value and a great pick up.
Due to the small number of games I have used CTR to help beef up the played games, given it is an edge position and similar in ways (though a lower scoring position)
This helps us see the bigger picture and see what he is capable over 80mins on the field, 15pts underpriced if he plays 80 which he is capable of in Lewis's old role.
Job security is ok but with a new coach and competing with the likes of Nikora/Sorensen/Bukuya it will be interesting to see what happens

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Braidon Burns -323k (22pts) prediction 35pts
Big wraps leading into 2019 from both playins in the leadership group and Bennett
Given it was mentioned that players were moved to accomodate him at ctr, means it is his position to lose.
While he has played in a couple positions over the past 2 years, it's hard to use previous stats as a basis to select him
End of the day he is a big guy, has been in the system for a while now and I expect big things of him this year

Maika Sivo -212k (15pts) prediction 30pts
Big and strong Fijian so capable of breaking a tackle or 2. If he can jag a try or 2 then the price rises will allow me to ride him up to a keeper.
At worst he should make his BE of 15 so not a bad gamble, downsides really is the volatility of wing and job security

Mikaele Ravalawa -212k (15pts) prediction 30pts
Similar to Sivo but slightly better job security. Medium risk, high reward type player and worth the gamble
Also playing both takes away the decision of which Fijian to start 2019 with and who to play haha


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Cameron Smith -894k (61pts) prediction 61pts
The old master, should steer the team around all year and rack the points up without any real effort.
Every year you think his scoring will go down and he still maintains the gun scores.
He just has those high ceiling scores that you reliably get those 50+ each week.
Downsides are that BSmith steals some minutes off him or gets rested in a blowout but as he kicks goals then he probably got points there too

Jake Friend -701k (28pts) prediction 55pts
Career Avg @ 80mins (59pts)
2018 Avg @ 70+ mins (57pts)
A former gun but started off 2018 sharing minutes with a niggly injury and a bench full of utilities which reduced his pts
He finished the second half of the year strong and looks like he will play most of the game in a good team so even getting back to his career avg is possible

Andrew McCullough- 710k (49pts) prediction 55pts
Career avg @ 80mins - 44 games (58pts)
2018 avg   @ 80mins - 14 games (52pts)
80 minute hooker in a good team, returned from major injury to start 2018 along with a few minor ones meant he is underpiced by up to 10pts
With no other hooker in the team he has good job security and looks to play 80 going forward
Question marks over improving his attack/kicks along with a new coach

Reed Mahoney -492k (33pts) prediction 45pts
When he gets the minutes he scores well. He is hoping to play 80 this year but even if he gets 65mins + he will make cash.
The big unknown will be if Smith will bench him and steal his minutes, but if he has potential to score 40-50pts a game
At worst his price makes him an easy swap to a mid range 2rf which there are plenty about

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Dylan Brown -212k (15pts) prediction 35pts
Junior Kiwi and starred in the trial games. More of a runner than controller so will play second fiddle to Moses.
Though he is quite elusive so if he can make a few breaks. he will be reliant on these to score well this year.
For his price and potential, he is a no brainer to start with and put pressure on Keighran's spot in the 17.

Reuben Garrick -212k (15pts) prediction 30pts
Out of the Dragons system, solid but not spectacular career in nsw cup and juniors and in a Manly team that may struggle this year.
He has a big frame so might be able to break a tackle or even jag a try, medium job security but who knows with Hasler and a full strength team.
Not a huge amount of options to start they year at bottom dollar, will start with him as would like WFB cover

Jordan Kahu -287k (19pts) prediction 30pts
Brought in as cover for WFB, starting fullback and goal kicker in what should be a good team this year.
Questionable base stats and injury plagued career though only needs to score above 19pts to make cash.
May be a slow burn or at worst his price and high ownership means he is a solid option to start with, at worst an easy swap for a better cow round 2

Jacob Host - 228k (16pts) prediction 35pts
Bottom priced player, ok fantasy player but is one of those players that plays well just needs the game time.
Has been around the dragons a while just has struggled to crack the team with their stong foward depth.
With Sims out for a couple weeks, no De Belin as well and after a strong trial, then he should get a crack on the edge for a couple weeks
Job security is the big unknown but his DPP FRF/CTR is hand for my team given I will be starting light there

Some thoughts on why POD players/team aren't great to start with

I look at this game that everyone will end up eventually in the season with the exact same team.
Its how fast you generate cash and how early you assemble that team with smart trades that dictates where you finish.
The same reason you still see talk of people finishing their team with late trades in the last few weeks of the game, it's too late and the impact is minimal.

It's also not the POD's that get you in the mix, who after a week or 2 you can grab regardless.
Very rarely does someone go under the radar for that long

You don't need a perfect team either to start the season either, but if you get it massively wrong then you are playing catch up all season just plugging gaps.
So a 'POD' team is bound to run out of steam quickly and while you may nail some, you are bound to get just as many wrong and thats where you lose points to the majority.
Why do that to yourself when you can pick a safer team to start ?

Take a popular cash cow to start the season.
The gamble is taken away when everyone buys them, if they kill it and you don't have them then game over (As it is tough to bring them in as their price jumps massively and fast)
It was different back in older versions of the game or in say super coach when you get a couple weeks of looks to make a call.
If they fail then you pick a new one up later and you haven't lost much.
Given you are paying for points, then you aren't losing much here even if they fail to fire (low point per $$)

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My POD story from 2018:
Last year i traded in Dufty thinking he was worth a shot and given his low ownership was worth a gamble as a POD.
I watched his games, did some research and rolled the calculated dice thinking I had made a smart bet on someone while being up and down he was going to go large for me.
It only took me that first weekend watching the game to realise what I had done and regret sunk in.
His involvement was hugely reduced and barely touched the ball and you could see it was a strategic change by the dragons.

While I could have simply done nothing and hoped for him to change, the following week I cut my losses and traded him by bringing in Thompson.
Cost me a trade and Dufty killed it that week (fluke) to rub salt in the wound, but in the long run I trusted my eye and moved on.
It was a ballsy move but he turned into one of the biggest earners all year and probably saved me my season.

Dufty was a POD and who I felt was the 'safer' pick but in hindsight I should have gone with the more popular Thompson from the start who I had been considering also.
I mean I had even talked him up and at one stage had him in my team to start with but still didn't bring him in.
If Dufty continued to kill it I could have still rode Thompsons price up and grabbed Dufty later so why did I not trade him in.I wanted that POD......
Lesson learned.

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Using another example of last years autopick team competition (where all teams started exactly the same) the end teams value and results massively fluctuated.
Sure some mucked around, gambled or didn't take it too seriously but it does give some insight into how important it is to fix your team early and generate cash.
You could say it is a microcosm of the game we love, and how important it is to make smart trades by cutting your losses, bringing in the right players and avoiding traps.

An example in that comp was we all started with Thurston who I got rid of very early to fix other spots, while some held onto all season where he bled cash and scored terrible.
Given spare cash was low and we were missing some popular guns/cows then some tough calls had to be made early.
I think knowing when to trade is sometimes far more important than who you are trading out.
Saying that, like Kenny Rogers once sang, "you got to know when to hold'em" as well. This is the game we love after all

Anyways just some insight into my thoughts, bit of a novel but was in the mood and wanted to share it for anyone interested.

TLDR = Take a Fanatics template team to start the season with your own sprinkling of flavour, make smart trades and finish high in 2019

What did you Google to find that Nofo piccy? That is awesome!

SI wrote:What did you Google to find that Nofo piccy?  That is awesome!

I searched "David Nofoaluma reacts to Boozecluez winning NRL Fantasy"

But NRL memes has some good photos now and then too

Boozecluez wrote:

SI wrote:What did you Google to find that Nofo piccy?  That is awesome!

I searched "David Nofoaluma reacts to Boozecluez winning NRL Fantasy"

But NRL memes has some good photos now and then too

Boozecluez wrote:Some thoughts



TLDR = Take a Fanatics template team to start the season with your own sprinkling of flavour, make smart trades and finish high in 2019

wise words

Have gone back and updated some of my shortlist pre TLT, 2/3rds of the team have been locked in but just throwing some combos around to see what works

Updated starting team and will run some more numbers/breakdowns over the selected players

Boozecluez wrote:Updated starting team and will run some more numbers/breakdowns over the selected players

Looking good Boozey.

Im tossing up between keeping Radley on my bench or downgrading and grabbing Teddy.
Bloody hell that would be pretty much your team

On second thought i love Radleys name too much to leave him out

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Looking good Boozey.

Im tossing up between keeping Radley on my bench or downgrading and grabbing Teddy.
Bloody hell that would be pretty much your team

On second thought i love Radleys name too much to leave him out

I have been second guessing my team with Lane/Watson/Hughes/CNK/Taupau/Vaughan/Tedesco/Edwards/Gillett/Siro in and out of the team
Will see how the dust settles on Monday but this should at least get me through the first round

Edited: So completed changed the team and strategy so will be interesting to see what would have happened If i stuck with the original team.
It would probably have been similar to the fanatics celebrity team with a few players like Gillett and Tedesco there.

Booze you only have 20 players listed?

Very similar to my team, so of course I love it

I have Cleary over Tedesco. An no Gillett for slightly better depth as the main difference

Milchy wrote:
Booze you only have 20 players listed?

Very similar to my team, so of course I love it

I have Cleary over Tedesco. An no Gillett for slightly better depth as the main difference

Should be 21 now

Fair enough, can only think the similar teams are a good things and shows people are in the right path here.
The fanatics team will be tough to beat this year too and it shows how different it is compared to some of the Facebook groups teams are.

Good luck to you this season

Hi Booze, this side must be doing great this weekend. What are you on?

mattnz wrote:Hi Booze, this side must be doing great this weekend. What are you on?

Yeah off to a decent start with 2 games remaining
821 with Arrow,Mahoney,Sivo to come

Tried to squeeze in Farah but was short $$ and couldn’t go any cheaper elsewhere without sacrificing too much and losing captain cook

Left some points out there with leaving $$ in the bank but the team is well setup and easy to fix next week. The only thing I may have done differently was stick with burr over Garrick but wanted to have a couple wfb options in case something happened. Easy upgrade now regardless

Kahu only came in late and was there as an insurance policy.
Given his ownership, if he killed it then I would own him but if not then his price made him an easy swap to another cow. Easy decision

Well 2 games to go now, regardless of what happens it will be a better start than previous years

Great start mate. The only disappointments would be Napa and Sivo. Would you look to give them one more chance since the Dogs are playing the Eels this week and either or both could go well or look to grab the missed cash cows like Lawrie, Burr, Mikaele etc?

Pacey's Best wrote:Great start mate. The only disappointments would be Napa and Sivo. Would you look to give them one more chance since the Dogs are playing the Eels this week and either or both could go well or look to grab the missed cash cows like Lawrie, Burr, Mikaele etc?

Hey mate, thanks

Lawrie looks good to start for me in place of Napa so will bring him in. With a big score and high ppm then he only needs minutes and he should bang out decent scores for a while.
Think Napa gets traded out as will probably make coin too slow now and need that burst that Lawries 50pt start does. Host is a handy reserve due to his dpp.

Going to play Sivo again as well, he had a chance to score a try but was ruled back for the high shot and had another break they ruled a knock on but that was a dubious call.
It was wet too and on debut so worth another week

So the second trade I will look as a pure cash generator regardless of position I think to leave in nprs.

Thinking Bird in as he looks the best money maker and off a good score helps with quick cash

Garrick out makes the most sense here, if I have to pick between him and Sivo then I am going the Fijian in an improving eels team. Just need Jennings to pass him the ball haha


Garrick out Bird in
Napa out Lawrie in

Those trades leave me 163k in the bank and options for next week

Round 2 Trades

Blake Lawrie - 314k (21pts) Prediction 40pts
He has had limited minutes off the bench in his career so far, but when he does get on the field he has a PPM of almost 1
Almost started with thim but based on history he has only managed small minutes so started with Napa as a placeholder
Due to the dragons pack being low on numbers, he got more game time and banged out a big score so from here he really only needs minutes (Which he should get).
This week he starts at lock, so if he can manage 50mins + then I see no reason why he can't score well
When the reinforcements come back he should move to the bench worst case where he can still score as proven rd 1,but for now enjoy the ride.

Jack Bird - 323k (22pts) Prediction 35pts
Purely from a cash grab point of view, looks to make 100k over 3 weeks from 35pts alone.
Has a career average of 35pts at centre, just needs to to keep this up for a few more weeks and he has done his job

Out are Napa and Garrick