NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 68

wolfking wrote:

Thanks mate.  Not sure if I can get a gun half plus Fifi.  Going to be very tight.  If I downgrade Lomax I will have to go for a 212 player.  I think getting a Naden type priced player will require the extra trade.

I think you will have plenty of cash to go Lomax > 212 this week. Watson > Fifita next week. Fainu/Mahoney > Trbojevic/Munster the week after

Arthars signs with broncos for next year

‪Gareth Widdop is set to return in Rd19 for the Dragons (via @WackosWhispers) after undergoing latarjet shoulder reconstruction surgery earlier this season. Would be a 4 month return to play after he spent the offseason in rehab for a shoulder reconstruction and then re-dislocated his shoulder in Rd3‬

I hope Burns has a strong back with so many jumping on him this week !!

danseels1985 wrote:

Yeah that was my thoughts exactly,I only have 3 trades left after Xerri to Fifita. Play with 16 then you think?

In one of my posts the other day I did some research on the amount of injuries in the nrl. I’ll share the stats again:

Based on 2019 stats, there are 11.3 injuries per round.
That is 4.15% of all players who play in a round.
Your fantasy team has 17 players on the field.
There are 8 games left after this round
This means your players will play a total of 136 games
Using the 4.15% of players injured stat from before, I can predict that over the final 8 rounds your team will have 5.64 injuries (136 x 0.0415)
Some of these injuries might be minor and only cause the player to miss 1 week - in that scenario you would play your cover from the emergencies

I think it’s a good idea to finish the run home with as close to 5 trades remaining
So my advice would be to maybe hold the Burns trade because it will probably be more useful in the future

StormTrooper96 wrote:‪Gareth Widdop is set to return in Rd19 for the Dragons (via @WackosWhispers) after undergoing latarjet shoulder reconstruction surgery earlier this season. Would be a 4 month return to play after he spent the offseason in rehab for a shoulder reconstruction and then re-dislocated his shoulder in Rd3‬

I wonder if this affects McInnes and Hunt if Mary opts to do mid game spine shift again even though it failed spectacularly or if Dufty gets dropped altogether and they continue with Robson on the bench

Camo123 wrote:

I wonder if this affects McInnes and Hunt if Mary opts to do mid game spine shift again even though it failed spectacularly

I assume dufty either goes to wing or drops to bench. Won’t affect the spine.

Camo123 wrote:

I wonder if this affects McInnes and Hunt if Mary opts to do mid game spine shift again even though it failed spectacularly or if Dufty gets dropped altogether and they continue with Robson on the bench

Mcinnes barring injury, will play close to 80 every week

wolfking wrote:Does anyone think I NEED to trade.  6 trades but only 6K;

Smith
Taupau Haas
Murray Tolo Bateman
Watson SJ
Xerri Nikora
RTS Coates CNK

Cook MC9 Mahoney Fainu

Teddy Ponga Lomax Brittain

Thinking running with this for this week and hope Murray backs up.  I do like Burns and not keen on Xerri against the Storm.  Lomax to Yeo is a decent shout.  Besides double trading for Fifi I can't see anything that would put me behind in the scoring this week.  I guess tonight could change things depending on what happens.

If you are spending trades to improve your final 17, better to spend them now

Xerri can be improved upon so you should look at doing that
CNK should be upgraded if you get the chance
Coates gets a pass because he is just covering Teddy
Watson is borderline. He's only covering Ponga, but going forward he is possibly only just acceptable as 18th man, when Knights get back to full strength he might be not good enough.


Xerri costs about the same as Burgess, which could be a punt worth making if you don't fancy Yeo
Burns may be a bit sideways for CNK, but might be worth considering to give you cash to upgrade Watson next week.

Any specific reason why T Roberts doesn't get mentioned when discussing HLF options? Just being curious after looking at his 5 game avg and stats.

Ben Marlin wrote:
In one of my posts the other day I did some research on the amount of injuries in the nrl. I’ll share the stats again:

Based on 2019 stats, there are 11.3 injuries per round.
That is 4.15% of all players who play in a round.
Your fantasy team has 17 players on the field.
There are 8 games left after this round
This means your players will play a total of 136 games
Using the 4.15% of players injured stat from before, I can predict that over the final 8 rounds your team will have 5.64 injuries (136 x 0.0415)
Some of these injuries might be minor and only cause the player to miss 1 week - in that scenario you would play your cover from the emergencies

I think it’s a good idea to finish the run home with as close to 5 trades remaining
So my advice would be to maybe hold the Burns trade because it will probably be more useful in the future

Loving the stats you've been dropping recently Marlin, but 5 trades would surely see you 1 or 2 guns shy. We are all going for #1 right? I am sure the winner will get their best team together as soon as possible and ride their luck. Risk it for the biscuit and all that

Ben Marlin wrote:
In one of my posts the other day I did some research on the amount of injuries in the nrl. I’ll share the stats again:

Based on 2019 stats, there are 11.3 injuries per round.
That is 4.15% of all players who play in a round.
Your fantasy team has 17 players on the field.
There are 8 games left after this round
This means your players will play a total of 136 games
Using the 4.15% of players injured stat from before, I can predict that over the final 8 rounds your team will have 5.64 injuries (136 x 0.0415)
Some of these injuries might be minor and only cause the player to miss 1 week - in that scenario you would play your cover from the emergencies

I think it’s a good idea to finish the run home with as close to 5 trades remaining
So my advice would be to maybe hold the Burns trade because it will probably be more useful in the future

In regards to your well thought out stats mate, That's near enough saying EVERY team will get (rounded down) 5 injuries from now until end of season yes?
That won't happen

StormTrooper96 wrote:
I assume dufty either goes to wing or drops to bench. Won’t affect the spine.

If Mary goes with the spine shift again it won't affect their mins but it would affect their position on the field. Early season Dragons started games with spine of Widdop, Norman, Hunt, McInnes and changed during game to Dufty, Widdop, Norman, Hunt and McInnes at lock. This could affect their output but if Dufty is wing or dropped other fantasy relevant players are unaffected

Welshy wrote:

In regards to your well thought out stats mate, That's near enough saying EVERY team will get (rounded down) 5 injuries from now until end of season yes?
That won't happen

Of course not.

Some lucky buggers will get 0 injuries, and LB will get 12

Milchy wrote:

Of course not.

Some lucky buggers will get 0 injuries, and LB will get 12

I've only got 4 trades!!! Damn it

Milchy wrote:

Of course not.

Some lucky buggers will get 0 injuries, and LB will get 12

That's my point, LB having a mare pile it on!

But serious, can't base previous on what's not happened yet

sajjos wrote:Any specific reason why T Roberts doesn't get mentioned when discussing HLF options? Just being curious after looking at his 5 game avg and stats.

5 game average of 53.3

There are 7 halves with averages higher than that (Drinkwater, DCE, Ponga, Milford, Reynolds, Munster, Moses)

His average for the season is only 50.8 if you exclude his injury game

Ben Marlin wrote:
I think you will have plenty of cash to go Lomax > 212 this week. Watson > Fifita next week. Fainu/Mahoney > Trbojevic/Munster the week after

You are probably right I reckon. Cheers mate, your advice is always most appreciated.

Ben Marlin wrote:
5 game average of 53.3

There are 7 halves with averages higher than that (Drinkwater, DCE, Ponga, Milford, Reynolds, Munster, Moses)

His average for the season is only 50.8 if you exclude his injury game

His 5 game avg is 58.6 which is better than most mentioned above. Though looking at it closely all his 50+ scores, bar one, has come on top of tries so probably not sustainable.

sajjos wrote:

His 5 game avg is 58.6 which is better than most mentioned above. Though looking at it closely all his 50+ scores, bar one, has come on top of tries so probably not sustainable.

My bad, 53.3 is his 3 game average - should’ve know better