NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

StormTrooper96 wrote:
I don’t remember who said it but it was a good point that if you start without Haas, you probably won’t get him in until around R19 and then you’ll only have the highest scoring fantasy player for the last 6 rounds. You would be too hard up on cash early on to try aim to have him by R5-6,

The idea that starting without Haas means you won't bring him in until round 19 is garbage

MTB started without Cook last year, brought him in round 6, traded him out for origin, and brought him back in again afterwards, and nearly won the whole comp.

Iron Mike wrote:The thing with Hass is that he is a machine and will only get better, those first few rounds in the heat when the other forwards are starting to get tired, Hass will just roll over the top of them.

This is actually a good point.

The Broncos will almost certainly have a bench utility (sounding like Paix) which will use an interchange or two.

They may continue to use TPJ in short stints (there were games last year where they used four interchanges on him)

Hey mtb, are you thinking of putting together another team builder on your website this year?

Ponga for prez wrote:Hey mtb, are you thinking of putting together another team builder on your website this year?

I did want to, but probably no point now, as fantasy should be up and running by the 28th, it seems.

Tinkering with the site in my spare time over the next week to fix it up for the new year.

my tv broke wrote:

I did want to, but probably no point now, as fantasy should be up and running by the 28th, it seems.

Tinkering with the site in my spare time over the next week to fix it up for the new year.

Awesome. You da best

My 5c with Haas:

From previous seasons, pretty much all guns lose value in the opening rounds (from memory). I picked up Cook last year for a discount and Smith the year before. The issue is how much does Haas realistically lose, and who can you trade to get up to that price. Using a rough estimate, if he drops $100-150k over 4 weeks of missing his BE by 5-10, then he'll be $851k at the cheaper point. Any big games in there and that halts his value drop. So at $850k, who do you trade to get him? No filthy middy can make up that difference (if they did they're a keeper), and no Cash Cow will earn enough in that 4 weeks. Maybe if you hold a mega warchest, but that's an opportunity cost.

Maybe he gets injured, but you can't plan on that. Plan for what you know and try mitigate the rest.

Anyway, don't listen to me, I suck at fantasy and probably won't start with Haas haha

Edit: I said all guns but Fifita killed it last year in the start so there's exceptions lol

Milchy wrote:

The idea that starting without Haas means you won't bring him in until round 19 is garbage

MTB started without Cook last year, brought him in round 6, traded him out for origin, and brought him back in again afterwards, and nearly won the whole comp.

Yeah, but the risk of having to make some pretty serious compromises to get him in earlier than that is not. I think that is the biggest issue non Haas owners will have to consider, other than the obvious risk that they may be without a high 60s captain for the early part of the season....

That said, gambles are what will win this comp, and if you get the Haas gamble right and that gamble was not starting with him, then you will be in a very strong position.

IMO the safe option is certainly starting with him so I give props to the people who dont!

Going back to mtb last year, he traded Garner to Cook in round 6
I don't see why a similar trade won't be possible this year.

If I can't get funds to bring Haas in, then I'm going to be in trouble anyway, because it means the rest of my team is struggling.

Just using mtb as an example because his team tracker is still easy to see from last year, and he did well.

I might still get Haas, depending on everyone else's prices, because overall prices look to be a little lower across the board, so paying a premium for Haas may be feasible. But you will be paying overs for him.

Milchy wrote:
Going back to mtb last year, he traded Garner to Cook in round 6
I don't see why a similar trade won't be possible this year.

If I can't get funds to bring Haas in, then I'm going to be in trouble anyway, because it means the rest of my team is struggling.

Just using mtb as an example because his team tracker is still easy to see from last year, and he did well.

I might still get Haas, depending on everyone else's prices, because overall prices look to be a little lower across the board, so paying a premium for Haas may be feasible. But you will be paying overs for him.

Yeah, there's no doubt there could be possibilities, but in fairness to MTB's trade, while it took balls and it paid off, arguably he got a bit lucky as Garner went on to get a long term injury and without that, one could speculate the trade could have actually gone the other way and been a bit of a bust.

In fact I postulate that you are probably relying on an injury for such a trade to come off. I.e if a low-price / mid ranger was to earn you enough money to be able to jump to a $900k Haas by round 6, the points per $ tradeoff would probably not be worth it.

Eg in the Garner to Cook move, Cook goes on to average ~63 for the rest of the season and you pay $900k to get it.

Garner on the other hand, who was sold for $550k, if you take out injuries actually improves on his near 50 average in the remainder of the games he does play.

Run those numbers and even if you are getting a few extra points out of Cook as a result of upgrading your captain, it still doesnt make sense.

I cant help but feel people who dont start with Haas are going to be relying on well timed injuries to make things work.

Feel free to counter all that though as Im playing this out in my head as I write

I can see an argument for say starting with Marty Taupau instead of Hass and hoping he does well when JTurbo/AFB are not there/ working way back and then upgrading him to Hass when the time is right. But that could easily go wrong.

I think you can do well if you start with Haas or not. Booze showed last year that you can end up in the top 100 by having a different approach to the cookie cutter Guns/Cows system.
As long as you make the right trades, generate enough cash and have a good team balance it doesn't matter if you start with Haas or Cook or Smith or Cartwright...

... or Host or Lawrie

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

In fact I postulate that you are probably relying on an injury for such a trade to come off. I.e if a low-price / mid ranger was to earn you enough money to be able to jump to a $900k Haas by round 6, the points per $ tradeoff would probably not be worth it.

Eg in the Garner to Cook move, Cook goes on to average ~63 for the rest of the season and you pay $900k to get it.

Garner on the other hand, who was sold for $550k, if you take out injuries actually improves on his near 50 average in the remainder of the games he does play.

Run those numbers and even if you are getting a few extra points out of Cook as a result of upgrading your captain, it still doesnt make sense.

I cant help but feel people who dont start with Haas are going to be relying on well timed injuries to make things work.

Feel free to counter all that though as Im playing this out in my head as I write

Whilst injuries could certainly help or hinder the cause that is true for everyone, not just Haas.
I will also want the rest of my team to make some money - but that is also true whether or not I start with Haas. If I pick a bunch of dud cows, then I'm stuffed no matter who my gun players are

If I start without Haas, the main thing i will be relying on is him not improving on last year, and if he puts up a 50 in the early rounds, even better.
And I'd want whoever I do pick as captain to at least maintain last years average

To move the conversation on from the current topic.

One thing I am looking at doing this year is reducing origin players in general.
I think players like Teddy/Cook cause too much of a problem when they always get rests on top of the games they miss for origin.

Sometimes they score too many points in the other rounds to pass up, but one of my problems last year was struggling to field a team over origin (Didn't help that for origin 3 all my bye players seemed to get injured, which also impacted a lot of other people)

To add to the argument, it is all luck. None of us know what is going to happen. Haas could bust out a banner in R1 against the Cows and he can make cash and lower his BE for a couple weeks. Haas could do a pec muscle while trying to fend off Taumololo. These are the things we don't know. What we do know his Haas is premium, but I believe you are getting what you pay for; his scores ranged from 50-100 last year. Not a single score below 50 is ridiculous and many are just waiting for that one bad game. Maybe 50 is his bad game. I know, as many examples have been made, it is possible to not start without him; however, for what we know now; Haas is the Broncos main enforcer, the forwards aren't where the Broncos really struggled last year so do we really see that changing much? The change needs to come in the halves and the backs. For now I will be trying to get him in my team each way till Sunday.

Someone I have only seen mentioned a couple times is Fifita. Hopefully he has done something about that knee. No Prior, No Gallen and should be cut price at about 650K (started last year at 864K) he will be a much cheaper option up front with the ability to score very similar if in the mood and given the minutes.

EDIT: SORRY MILCH, DIDNT SEE

Fifita should play All Stars, yeah? If he looks fit and firing there, then I'll be very keen again.

EDIT: just went looking for news on him, if he has had surgery or anything.. I see there are some silly bugger rumours about him going to Titans which he has already put to bed on instagram as rubbish.

Pretty glad I unfollowed all the junk media like foxnrl/telegraph/etc and don't see that stuff now .. but I guess I may need to get back on them towards the start of the season to pick up important team news..

Milchy wrote:
To move the conversation on from the current topic.

One thing I am looking at doing this year is reducing origin players in general.
I think players like Teddy/Cook cause too much of a problem when they always get rests on top of the games they miss for origin.

Sometimes they score too many points in the other rounds to pass up, but one of my problems last year was struggling to field a team over origin (Didn't help that for origin 3 all my bye players seemed to get injured, which also impacted a lot of other people)

I feel like doing this, although is great around those bye rounds, might hinder your chances at getting that head start and you'll be constantly chasing over the first 12 weeks and probably wasting the same amount trades to catch up then you would probably use to trade Cook/Teddy out and in over the origin period. Again, all this comes down to luck. When will we all learn that this game is based on luck!!! No matter how much we try to believe we have some knowledge behind the moves we make It is pretty much close your eyes and pray!

my tv broke wrote:Fifita should play All Stars, yeah? If he looks fit and firing there, then I'll be very keen again.

EDIT: just went looking for news on him, if he has had surgery or anything.. I see there are some silly bugger rumours about him going to Titans which he has already put to bed on instagram as rubbish.

Pretty glad I unfollowed all the junk media like foxnrl/telegraph/etc and don't see that stuff now .. but I guess I may need to get back on them towards the start of the season to pick up important team news..

Was there anything?

Milchy wrote:

Whilst injuries could certainly help or hinder the cause that is true for everyone, not just Haas.
I will also want the rest of my team to make some money - but that is also true whether or not I start with Haas. If I pick a bunch of dud cows, then I'm stuffed no matter who my gun players are

If I start without Haas, the main thing i will be relying on is him not improving on last year, and if he puts up a 50 in the early rounds, even better.
And I'd want whoever I do pick as captain to at least maintain last years average

I'd argue that it is much more relevant for a strategy that involves trying to bring Haas in for a discount at around the 6 round mark. He's an outlier.

my tv broke wrote:Fifita should play All Stars, yeah? If he looks fit and firing there, then I'll be very keen again.

EDIT: just went looking for news on him, if he has had surgery or anything.. I see there are some silly bugger rumours about him going to Titans which he has already put to bed on instagram as rubbish.

Pretty glad I unfollowed all the junk media like foxnrl/telegraph/etc and don't see that stuff now .. but I guess I may need to get back on them towards the start of the season to pick up important team news..

I read somewhere fifita's knee injury is bone on bone and struggled through most of last season with it