NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 3

MTBs Site - Stats, BE, Match Centre, Interchange Times, Price Predictor
http://www.footystatistics.com/

MTB's team builder
http://footystatistics.com/team_planner_2020.php


Excel links

Milchcow's excel solver
https://www.mediafire.com/file/kcuwhduwp4n227e/2020_Fantasy_Solver_v1.0.xlsm/file

Milchcow's team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/pj9xsl5oxf2rgwd/2020_Team_Planner_v0.1.xlsx/file

arsen's excel
http://www.mediafire.com/file/3tr3at0u11gg7mo/NRL_Fantasy_2020.xlsx/file

mattnz's excel sheet
https://www.mediafire.com/file/ez4a4ipfe11s4h5/2020_players_updated.xlsx/file



2020 BYE PLANNER


Player Prices  

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1127-2020-prices

Price change formula

New Price = 0.75 * old price + 0.25 * Weighted average * MN

Weighted average = (5*G1 + 4*G2 + 3*G3 + 2*G4 + G5) ÷ 15

G1 = most recent game
G2 = game before that
G3 = game before that
Etc

Before a player has played 4 games, they are assumed to have scored their priced average for the missing games from the weighted average

In answer to questions from previous thread.

if Stimson starts (and looks like he'll stay there) I'll be all over him.

I'm also tempted by no Pap. Think he might be a 45ish average, but we'll see ho wit goes

Might run a back 3 of Isaako, Brimson, Doueihi (assuming he's Tigers fullback) but that requires good success. Will be tough to bring in keepers if they don't fire.

Agree with pretty much everything Milchy said
On Papy very tempted to start without him, but there isn't any stand out option in WFB that I like

no Papehuyzen, cheap backs

Friend
Fifita Haas
Leilua Su'A Lowe
Moses Luai
Best Lomax
Douehi Isaako Brimson

JWilliams
BBrailey
Koroisau
Grant

Mann
Stimson
Moga
Musgrove

I'll be kicking off a new series of posts by attempting to predict players minutes based on average interchange time from the team last year. Will be very heavily opinion based.

Broncos:

20 Lodge - Carrigan
26 Ofa - TPJ
34 Haas - Lodge

47 Carrigan - Haas
53 Lodge - Flegler
58 Glenn - Ofa
64 Flegler - Lodge
69 TPJ - Glenn

Lodge 55
Hooker 80
Haas 67
Glenn 69
Fifita 80
Ofa 48

Utility 0
Tpj 45
Flegler 11
Carrigan 27

for FRF

Ryan James, Trent Merrin and Liam Knight all around the same price, all are possibly tempting (potentially add in Woods/Hamlin Uele)

Anyone want to do my homework for me and work out who the best is.
James has DPP, Merrin potentially in line for it

Shame on you guys for wasting page 51 with Fantasy related posts

(good to see code delta and Milch behaving like true forum members)

Milchcow wrote:
In answer to questions from previous thread.

if Stimson starts (and looks like he'll stay there) I'll be all over him.

I'm also tempted by no Pap. Think he might be a 45ish average, but we'll see ho wit goes

Might run a back 3 of Isaako, Brimson, Doueihi (assuming he's Tigers fullback) but that requires good success. Will be tough to bring in keepers if they don't fire.

Yeah, I was going to say the same about Stimson. If he starts I could really use that kind of value in my second row.

I currently have Best in my centres but would be opening to Talau (also if he's named) instead so I could swap another cheapie out for Stimson. I do like him, but would really like to see him set to play big minutes every week.

Is that the plan, for Doueihi to be the Tigers fullback? Interesting option if so. I'm still thinking of giving Holmes a crack, but Doueihi at fullback might change that. Especially at DPP.

Chewie wrote:Shame on you guys for wasting page 51 with Fantasy related posts

Do regular fantasy fanatics rip people's arms off when they don't get a party? Wookiees have been known to do that.

Teeth Eater wrote:
Is that the plan, for Doueihi to be the Tigers fullback? Interesting option if so. I'm still thinking of giving Holmes a crack, but Doueihi at fullback might change that. Especially at DPP.  

If the Tigers sign Doueihi I assume it would be to play 1 this year, potentially with a move to 6 once Benji retires.

Not sure why he'd leave Souths to have a bench role with a worse club (unless we are just overpaying him heaps)

There are lots of potential 2RF value buys around the $400-500k range Leilua, Lowe, Sua, James, Stimson, Tapine etc. I am deliberately skipping them and going to the under-priced gun level instead with Fifita, Garner, Brown as my 2RF, along with Magoulias as base priced back up.

Milchcow wrote:
for FRF

Ryan James, Trent Merrin and Liam Knight all around the same price, all are possibly tempting (potentially add in Woods/Hamlin Uele)

Anyone want to do my homework for me and work out who the best is.
James has DPP, Merrin potentially in line for it

I would also like someone to do this for me. If I had to rank them based on what we currently know

1.Ryan James - Previous pedigree and Titans have shit forwards so he will get a bunch of minutes
2.Liam Knight - Who is going to steal his starting spot? Tom Amone and Mark Nicholls?
3.Trent Merrin - Previous pedigree but he is in a stronger pack and performed poorly his last NRL season

Milchcow wrote:

If the Tigers sign Doueihi I assume it would be to play 1 this year, potentially with a move to 6 once Benji retires.

Not sure why he'd leave Souths to have a bench role with a worse club (unless we are just overpaying him heaps)

Sounds like Roosters have made a play for him. Guessing they want to play him in the ctrs

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I would also like someone to do this for me. If I had to rank them based on what we currently know

1.Ryan James - Previous pedigree and Titans have shit forwards so he will get a bunch of minutes
2.Liam Knight - Who is going to steal his starting spot? Tom Amone and Mark Nicholls?
3.Trent Merrin - Previous pedigree but he is in a stronger pack and performed poorly his last NRL season

Not seeing the appeal of Knight, he averaged 41 minutes last season, Murray will get big minutes in the absence of Surgess, Knight gets maybe 45 minutes per game with Nicholls sharing the other 35 minutes (averaged 32.4 minutes last season).

I'm stacking my front and second row this year

The Goat Boys wrote:I'm stacking my front and second row this year

Me too, average $700k ish in my starters there.

Milchcow wrote:
for FRF

Ryan James, Trent Merrin and Liam Knight all around the same price, all are possibly tempting (potentially add in Woods/Hamlin Uele)

Anyone want to do my homework for me and work out who the best is.
James has DPP, Merrin potentially in line for it

My 2 cents:

RJames: if starting as a prop, big yes, potential of 10-15 point increase (expected avg 53), DPP is a plus, plays round 12. Steer clear if 2RF

Krispy Kreme: I expect a 50mins stint at lock, potential 5-10 point increase (expected avg 47), no DPP, plays round 12

Knight: I expect about 50mins stint at prop, potential 5-10 point increase (expected avg 48), no DPP, plays round 12

mattnz wrote:There are lots of potential 2RF value buys around the $400-500k range Leilua, Lowe, Sua, James, Stimson, Tapine etc. I am deliberately skipping them and going to the under-priced gun level instead with Fifita, Garner, Brown as my 2RF, along with Magoulias as base priced back up.

Yeah, I've had James and Tapine in drafts so far and keeping my eye on Stimson. I guess J.Williams is another you could add to that list, and who I'm currently running with. Not sure that'll stick, though.

mattnz wrote:

Me too, average $700k ish in my starters there.

Yeah same here. Ours are probably pretty similar

Teeth Eater wrote:

Yeah, I've had James and Tapine in drafts so far and keeping my eye on Stimson. I guess J.Williams is another you could add to that list, and who I'm currently running with. Not sure that'll stick, though.

The issue with guys priced at 28-35 in 2RF is that when they perform as hoped and give you 40-45, they still need to be upgraded to a gun sooner rather than later. Buying an underpriced, gun level player at the start saves you a trade, as they can be a keeper for the season, saving approx $150k value of a trade that you can use elsewhere.