NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 6

mattnz wrote:

Yeah thats why I am trying to go bargain basement for it and find value in other positions.

The problem with that is this. A rookie half, centre, winger or fullback, if they get the nod, will generally play 80 minutes. Rookie props tend to get fuck all minutes off the bench and it doesn't matter how good your ppm is if you're only on the field for 15 minutes. The ideal situation is where you get a cheapie prop who starts but that rarely (never?) happens. The best you can hope for is a cheapie who gets decent bench minutes at a high ppm but they're hard to find as well and even if you do they're going to be a slow burn better suited to your nprs rather than starting. A rookie half or WFB in your scoring 17 is probably fine as they have a chance of scoring well in 80 minutes, bench forwards don't really get afforded that chance.

I have gotten the Haas jitters since looking at my FRF as a pair.
If I get Haas, I will really only afford a cheapie in FRF2, Molo and Mikaele being as low as I will set the bar. So thats $1.383M and I think they will score minimum ~60 + 30 = 90. If I didn't run with Haas I would put in Merrin and Knight, collectively $1.148M. Its hard to see them not scoring 45+ apiece, and for $235k less. That money has a huge knockon effect, I can upgrade Watkins to Bird or Burns+50k. Suddenly the equations makes Haas look less attractive. I think if it wasnt for the captaincy issue it would be a clear cut decision to run without him, but without Haas I need to rejig my team enough to fit in a viable 50+ scorer. I still have Haas in at this point, but its just so juicy going shopping with that extra $430k on a basically set team.

Mulvy wrote:

The problem with that is this. A rookie half, centre, winger or fullback, if they get the nod, will generally play 80 minutes. Rookie props tend to get fuck all minutes off the bench and it doesn't matter how good your ppm is if you're only on the field for 15 minutes. The ideal situation is where you get a cheapie prop who starts but that rarely (never?) happens. The best you can hope for is a cheapie who gets decent bench minutes at a high ppm but they're hard to find as well and even if you do they're going to be a slow burn better suited to your nprs rather than starting. A rookie half or WFB in your scoring 17 is probably fine as they have a chance of scoring well in 80 minutes, bench forwards don't really get afforded that chance.

This is very true- Forwards usually need to climb the pecking order and become alpha dogs. Backs just get thrown in based on talent. This is why we prefer rookie WFB/CTRs as my cash cows, because anybody can jag a try, score 50 points and kick start their price rises, wheres forward cows are always a slow burn (I will probably only run Magoulias in NPR, and only then because he may get a shot at starting down the line)

If you think Haas will score 60ish he is not worth it. He is priced at nearly 70

Tapine wants to stay at lock regardless of whether Bateman is fit for round 1. Horsburgh is shaping up as cover for Bateman.
"I told Ricky Stuart I wanted to play lock this year. I think they're going to look at someone else to go into the 2nd row. I want to start at lock this year & I want to play lock all year."

Milchcow wrote:
If you think Haas will score 60ish he is not worth it. He is priced at nearly 70

Minimum 60, not average. I am running off my analysis from a few pages ago. I actually think I worked his floor out to be 55.
By that account Merrin + Knight have easily got the potential to average 50 + 50, rather than the 45- but I always work in glasses half empty.

It is incredibly difficult to find a cheap prop to give you suitable production for the NPR, let alone as a starter. Here is a list of players from round 1 last year priced at 22 or less, the position they played and how many teams they were in. For what it's worth Nikora, Burr and Lawrie were the only 3 that proved themselves worthwhile owning in the short term

PLAYER BE FANTASY MINS OWN% POSITION
Bryce Cartwright 19 28 62 10.05% Interchange
Corey Horsburgh 14 15 24 8.52% Interchange
Tui Kamikamica 16 26 28 5.21% Interchange
Tom Eisenhuth 14 6 5 11.30% Interchange
Kotoni Staggs 19 38 75 15.65% Interchange
Thomas Flegler 14 10 10 8.50% Interchange
Briton Nikora 14 61 80 46.08% 2nd Row
Blayke Brailey 16 5 17 8.08% Interchange
Lindsay Collins 19 17 19 1.81% Interchange
Liam Knight 21 28 39 0.96% Interchange
Tevita Tatola 21 27 36 3.29% Prop
Corey Allan 14 2 9 19.02% Interchange
Lachlan Burr 16 43 52 7.13% Lock
Sam Lisone 21 26 28 0.79% Interchange
Blake Ayshford 18 8 11 2.75% Interchange
Francis Molo 16 19 15 2.76% Interchange
Blake Lawrie 19 50 40 4.85% Interchange
Jacob Host 16 40 67 8.10% 2nd Row
Tyrell Fuimaono 16 24 57 4.70% Interchange
Jack Hetherington 22 21 26 1.64% Interchange
Hame Sele 16 14 17 2.13% 2nd Row

Pookus McFly wrote:

Minimum 60, not average. I am running off my analysis from a few pages ago. I actually think I worked his floor out to be 55.
By that account Merrin + Knight have easily got the potential to average 50 + 50, rather than the 45- but I always work in glasses half empty.

It's the difficult balancing act in team selection.

You don't want to be too optimistic and select a bunch guys with expectations of scores that they have no hope of hitting.

But you also can't be too pessimistic and ignore good scorers due to a lack of trust

I agree re positions 18-21 being backs. Rookie backs like ctr's/wingers usually play 80 mins whereas a rookie prop for example will play 20-30 mins. Positions 14-17 you put forwards & positions 18-21 you put rookie backs. You will make more money that way. The exception to this rule is a rookie forward who starts but that's pretty rare. J. Curran could fit the bill because some are saying he could start but others saying he will start off the bench.

Friend

Haas (C), Knight

Taumalolo, Hess, Cartwright (both assuming they start)

Moses, Luai

Best, Lomax

Papi, Drinkwater, Brimson

Koro, Brailey, Stimson, Egan

246k, 3x228k

multiple.scoregasms wrote:It is incredibly difficult to find a cheap prop to give you suitable production for the NPR, let alone as a starter. Here is a list of players from round 1 last year priced at 22 or less, the position they played and how many teams they were in. For what it's worth Nikora, Burr and Lawrie were the only 3 that proved themselves worthwhile owning in the short term

PLAYER BE FANTASY MINS OWN% POSITION
Bryce Cartwright 19 28 62 10.05% Interchange
Corey Horsburgh 14 15 24 8.52% Interchange
Tui Kamikamica 16 26 28 5.21% Interchange
Tom Eisenhuth 14 6 5 11.30% Interchange
Kotoni Staggs 19 38 75 15.65% Interchange
Thomas Flegler 14 10 10 8.50% Interchange
Briton Nikora 14 61 80 46.08% 2nd Row
Blayke Brailey 16 5 17 8.08% Interchange
Lindsay Collins 19 17 19 1.81% Interchange
Liam Knight 21 28 39 0.96% Interchange
Tevita Tatola 21 27 36 3.29% Prop
Corey Allan 14 2 9 19.02% Interchange
Lachlan Burr 16 43 52 7.13% Lock
Sam Lisone 21 26 28 0.79% Interchange
Blake Ayshford 18 8 11 2.75% Interchange
Francis Molo 16 19 15 2.76% Interchange
Blake Lawrie 19 50 40 4.85% Interchange
Jacob Host 16 40 67 8.10% 2nd Row
Tyrell Fuimaono 16 24 57 4.70% Interchange
Jack Hetherington 22 21 26 1.64% Interchange
Hame Sele 16 14 17 2.13% 2nd Row

Following on from this it's worth noting the general consensus on forwards were very wrong. Excluding Nikora who was an auto pick as a starting second rower available at centre, the top 5 owned cheapie forwards were Eisenhuth(6), Cartwright(28), Horsburgh(15), Flegler(10), Host(40)

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Following on from this it's worth noting the general consensus on forwards were very wrong. Excluding Nikora who was an auto pick as a starting second rower available at centre, the top 5 owned cheapie forwards were Eisenhuth(6), Cartwright(28), Horsburgh(15), Flegler(10), Host(40)

So in conclusion, collectively we all got Host or Lawrie dead wrong

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Following on from this it's worth noting the general consensus on forwards were very wrong. Excluding Nikora who was an auto pick as a starting second rower available at centre, the top 5 owned cheapie forwards were Eisenhuth(6), Cartwright(28), Horsburgh(15), Flegler(10), Host(40)

But last year the 2nd FRF debate was far easier last year as there was Tolman, Twal in the same price range as Knight/Merrin/MoFo this year and Napa in the same price range as Mikaele/Molo

It seems obvious, but getting the right cows ASAP will make or break your season. Early game economy for late game snowball, the standard strategy for any RTS. Balancing points vs cash when making your team is always hard, but I will always prioritize cash over points with my early trades because each round you wait severely hampers your profit from a cow. I had Nikora and Burr to start the year and I still brought in Lawrie with my first trade rather than finding a mid ranger looking to make the leap to gun (ie. I held off on Bateman until R3 despite it being obvious that he was a must-have after 1 round, because I was prioritizing collecting cows. Guns will still have two scores of their initial pricing in their rolling average so they can't get away as quickly for a couple of rounds)

Mulvy wrote:For me, it's still the 2nd FRF position doing my head in.

Same for me and also my second front rower.

Team so far is
Korisau
Haas, fotuaikia
Stimson,su’a, fafitta
Moses, Drinkwater
Best, capewell  
Paps, lomax, turbo

Brailey,Egan,Tapine,magoulias
Grant, xoates, Luai, sailor

Any bad picks or things I’m missing hear?
Cheers for any advice

Cheers guys for the upvotes and downvotes re McInnes and Lolo.

Lolo wins 14-2 so Lolo it is.

White Lightning wrote:I agree re positions 18-21 being backs. Rookie backs like ctr's/wingers usually play 80 mins whereas a rookie prop for example will play 20-30 mins. Positions 14-17 you put forwards & positions 18-21 you put rookie backs. You will make more money that way. The exception to this rule is a rookie forward who starts but that's pretty rare. J. Curran could fit the bill because some are saying he could start but others saying he will start off the bench.

Good luck finding 4 base priced backs to fill your NPRs with

Pookus McFly wrote:It seems obvious, but getting the right cows ASAP will make or break your season. Early game economy for late game snowball, the standard strategy for any RTS. Balancing points vs cash when making your team is always hard, but I will always prioritize cash over points with my early trades because each round you wait severely hampers your profit from a cow. I had Nikora and Burr to start the year and I still brought in Lawrie with my first trade rather than finding a mid ranger looking to make the leap to gun (ie. I held off on Bateman until R3 despite it being obvious that he was a must-have after 1 round, because I was prioritizing collecting cows. Guns will still have two scores of their initial pricing in their rolling average so they can't get away as quickly for a couple of rounds)

Agree, and getting rid of duds quickly too. Holland lasted one week, Edwards lasted two. It meant having to play Kahu but worth any points hit to get Bird, Burns and Lawrie in ASAP. Which is why I don't like a slow burning FRF in my 17. Do you really want a 25-30 point player stuck in your 17 for 6-8 weeks while they slowly make cash?

HDIZZ wrote:Team so far is
Korisau
Haas, fotuaikia
Stimson,su’a, fafitta
Moses, Drinkwater
Best, capewell  
Paps, lomax, turbo

Brailey,Egan,Tapine,magoulias
Grant, xoates, Luai, sailor

Any bad picks or things I’m missing hear?
Cheers for any advice

I like this, he is definitely the fitter Fifita.  I now dub the two Fatfita and Fafitta

Oh and your team looks okay, not sure about Magoulias in the 17 though, or Tapine if he is playing lock. Also I worry Egan will be playing second fiddle to Lawton who seems to be overcoming his injury in time.