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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 9

    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:26 am

    I'm more concerned about Edwards coming back early than Aekins scoring.
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    Post by Bonanza15 Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:28 am

    Hey guys, just wondering what your thoughts on this team would be? Any advice would be greatly appreciated

    Koro
    Haas Carrigan
    Fifita Lolo Stimson
    Mann Cleary
    Lomax Capewell
    Papz Aekins Brimson

    Levi Knight Musgrove Magoulis

    Keppie Luai Leleusiano Coates

    Cheers guys, love the forum
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:32 am

    1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
    2. Suliasi Vunivalu
    3. Justin Olam
    4. Marion Seve
    5. Josh Addo-Carr
    6. Cameron Munster
    7. Jahrome Hughes
    8. Jesse Bromwich
    9. Cameron Smith
    10. Tui Kamikamica
    11. Felise Kaufusi
    12. Kenny Bromwich
    13. Dale Finucane
    14. Harry Grant
    15. Tino Fa'Asuamaleaui
    16. Max King
    17. Albert Vete
    18. Tom Eisenhuth
    19. Darryn Schonig
    20. Nicho Hynes
    21. Brenko Lee
    22. Ryley Jacks
    23.Cooper Johns
    24. Chris Lewis
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:35 am

    Camo123 wrote:1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
    2. Suliasi Vunivalu
    3. Justin Olam
    4. Marion Seve
    5. Josh Addo-Carr
    6. Cameron Munster
    7. Jahrome Hughes
    8. Jesse Bromwich
    9. Cameron Smith
    10. Tui Kamikamica
    11. Felise Kaufusi
    12. Kenny Bromwich
    13. Dale Finucane
    14. Harry Grant
    15. Tino Fa'Asuamaleaui
    16. Max King
    17. Albert Vete
    18. Tom Eisenhuth
    19. Darryn Schonig
    20. Nicho Hynes
    21. Brenko Lee
    22. Ryley Jacks
    23.Cooper Johns
    24. Chris Lewis

    NAS getting a rest? Tui would go to bench come round 1.

    If Tino can see 35 minutes off the bench that could be one of those slow burning money makers?
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:37 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    The original deadline of Tuesday for team naming was for print deadlines for Big League magazine.

    Now that its dead (is it dead yet? I know Rugby League Week stopped) there's no real reason to name teams on a Tuesday other than satisfying the urges of Fantasy players (and giving them something to get angry about when the team changes by Sunday)

    Do you think coaches actually enjoy naming a team several days before a game?

    There is at least one real reason.

    It doesn't matter for trials but during the season it's not about fantasy, its surely about the real/perceived threat of insider gambling. Years ago there would be betting plunges on a rumour that Superstar X is coming into a side from injury early in jersey #24 just before kickoff. Or Superstar Y being zero chance to play despite being named to start and assurances all week.

    So they have actually tightened rules about naming teams on Tuesday the last few years, not loosened them.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:39 am

    Is Shibasaki left or right centre. I hate the price point, but I'm looking at ways to cheapen my centres for $ elsewhere.
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    Post by VERTiiGO Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:41 am

    my FRF are Haas/Merrin atm... but not too sure Merrin has it in him to score well in the NRL anymore.
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:46 am

    Mulvy wrote:Is Shibasaki left or right centre.  I hate the price point, but I'm looking at ways to cheapen my centres for $ elsewhere.

    Right centre mate
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:46 am

    Pat Carrigan named captain in Glenns absense this week
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    Post by BBowler Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:48 am

    Let's say you introduced this 4 x 4 startegy last season (with the benefit of hindsight) who are the equivalent of the 8 players you mention below?

    mattnz wrote:Trying to explain by example how positional difference is important. Lets assume that all these players perform well and score 10 points more than they are priced at, for simplicity (all numbers taken from MTBs site for consistency):

    Team A (all players that I am deliberately avoiding):
    Sua $412k priced at 28, scores 38
    Stimson $390k priced at 27, scores 37
    Brailey $400k priced at 28, scores 38
    Lowe $430k priced at 30, scores 40
    All 4 need to be in starting 17 to start the season, total cost $1,632k

    Team B:
    Burns $500k priced at 34, scores 44
    Kikau $642k priced at 44, scores 54
    Luai $249k priced at 17, scores 27
    Amone $246k priced at 17, scores 27
    All 4 need to be in starting 17 to start the season, total cost $1,637

    So the assumption is that both groups of 4 players that may be the only differences in our 17s score on average 40 points per week better than their cost.

    The difference is that in a few weeks time Team A has all these 2RF and HOK players that haven't peaked yet, and need to be upgraded, as they aren't scoring enough to justify a starting spot in their positions, or even in 14-17. If you wait for them to max out at the full 10 point difference, they need to sit in NPRs, which wastes team value, that isn't converted into points in your scoring 17.

    This is much less of an issue for team B, where you can easily drop the players averaging 27 to the NPRs until they max out in value, then trade them. The 2 players performing well in their positions at CTR averaging 44 and 2RF averaging 54 don't need any attention at all until at least the byes.

    That is why position matters and the expected scores in each position equally matter as the season progresses.

    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:48 am

    my tv broke wrote:Pat Carrigan named captain in Glenns absense this week

    Well done mate, you called him early. Just keeps getting better and better for him.
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    Post by BBowler Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:53 am

    Is that on top of Knight and Carrigan in the FRF position?

    mattnz wrote:

    The difference is horsey can fill that awkward FRF position, none of the others can
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:54 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    NAS getting a rest? Tui would go to bench come round 1.

    If Tino can see 35 minutes off the bench that could be one of those slow burning money makers?

    Only three first-grade regulars will miss the match through injury - Brandon Smith (facial fracture), Christian Welch (knee rehab) and Nelson Asofa-Solomona (hamstring strain).

    I would say Tino would lose a lot of mins on B Smith return
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    Post by mattnz Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:56 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    The original deadline of Tuesday for team naming was for print deadlines for Big League magazine.

    Now that its dead (is it dead yet? I know Rugby League Week stopped) there's no real reason to name teams on a Tuesday other than satisfying the urges of Fantasy players (and giving them something to get angry about when the team changes by Sunday)

    Do you think coaches actually enjoy naming a team several days before a game?

    You are forgetting betting
    Fortitude
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    Post by Fortitude Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:56 am

    Bateman set to miss first 6-7 Rounds according to the Canberra times.

    Hello Trapine.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:03 pm

    mattnz wrote:Trying to explain by example how positional difference is important. Lets assume that all these players perform well and score 10 points more than they are priced at, for simplicity (all numbers taken from MTBs site for consistency):

    Team A (all players that I am deliberately avoiding):
    Sua $412k priced at 28, scores 38
    Stimson $390k priced at 27, scores 37
    Brailey $400k priced at 28, scores 38
    Lowe $430k priced at 30, scores 40
    All 4 need to be in starting 17 to start the season, total cost $1,632k

    Team B:
    Burns $500k priced at 34, scores 44
    Kikau $642k priced at 44, scores 54
    Luai $249k priced at 17, scores 27
    Amone $246k priced at 17, scores 27
    All 4 need to be in starting 17 to start the season, total cost $1,637

    So the assumption is that both groups of 4 players that may be the only differences in our 17s score on average 40 points per week better than their cost.

    The difference is that in a few weeks time Team A has all these 2RF and HOK players that haven't peaked yet, and need to be upgraded, as they aren't scoring enough to justify a starting spot in their positions, or even in 14-17. If you wait for them to max out at the full 10 point difference, they need to sit in NPRs, which wastes team value, that isn't converted into points in your scoring 17.

    This is much less of an issue for team B, where you can easily drop the players averaging 27 to the NPRs until they max out in value, then trade them. The 2 players performing well in their positions at CTR averaging 44 and 2RF averaging 54 don't need any attention at all until at least the byes.

    That is why position matters and the expected scores in each position equally matter as the season progresses.


    Im surprised no-one has pointed out that its not position that matters in Matt's argument, its picking guns that are value. I.e. in this hypothetical world, lets just say for arguments sake all these guys are 2RF. Does anything change?

    BBowler
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    Post by BBowler Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:04 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Maybe Lisone can generate a cult following down at the Gold Coast, a bit of a George Rose esque vibe. He's usually good for two big runs per game. Line him up to take the kick off return/first carry off the drop out, then sub him off. Would love to see him skittle some blokes. The GC actually need to find a few characters in their team to get the fans to warm to them.. They are so bland.

    The Mark "Pie Warmer on the Sideline" Tookey special

      NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 9 - Page 8 Mark_t10
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:05 pm

    BBowler wrote:Let's say you introduced this 4 x 4 startegy last season (with the benefit of hindsight) who are the equivalent of the 8 players you mention below?



    Sione Katoa - Playing outside SJ you get a keeper at a discount and leading try scorer Wink
    BBowler
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    Post by BBowler Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:05 pm

    Hmm I guess theres only so many potential 'trade-ins' in one position - spreading them across positions reduces the risk..

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Im surprised no-one has pointed out that its not position that matters in Matt's argument, its picking guns that are value. I.e. in this hypothetical world, lets just say for arguments sake all these guys are 2RF. Does anything change?

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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:06 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Im surprised no-one has pointed out that its not position that matters in Matt's argument, its picking guns that are value. I.e. in this hypothetical world, lets just say for arguments sake all these guys are 2RF. Does anything change?


    I'd like to make the argument we are all much worse at picking fantasy players than we think

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