NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 9

mattnz wrote:

You are forgetting betting

I'm not forgetting it, I just don't see why its an issue.

Premier League football would have a lot more betting on it than a lowly NRL game, and they don't bother with naming teams more than an hour before kick off

And naming 21 man squads doesn't give that much more guidance about whether an injured player is likely to make his return or not (it can explicitly rule it out, but can't confirm someone is in)

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I'd like to make the argument we are all much worse at picking fantasy players than we think

Haha - yes, its all well and good having some kind of specific strategy like this, but even if it did make sense, it all comes to nothing if you pick the wrong guy

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I'd like to make the argument we are all much worse at picking fantasy players than we think

Most of us though Edwards and Holland would be good picks last year

Milchcow wrote:

I'm not forgetting it, I just don't see why its an issue.

Premier League football would have a lot more betting on it than a lowly NRL game, and they don't bother with naming teams more than an hour before kick off

And naming 21 man squads doesn't give that much more guidance about whether an injured player is likely to make his return or not (it can explicitly rule it out, but can't confirm someone is in)

Isnt the NRL in bed with the betting agencies though? Dont know about OZ, but in NZ sport and gambling are tied at the hip. They each look after the other...

Milchcow wrote:

Most of us though Edwards and Holland would be good picks last year

Man, I had them both, and Croft.

Im kinda glad Edwards got injured cause I had him again this year...

Roosters have named their trial team. As expected, no WCC players.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Man, I had them both, and Croft.

Im kinda glad Edwards got injured cause I had him again this year...

After getting burnt by Croft in 2018 I managed to avoid him last year. Not going to be tempted this year either

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im surprised no-one has pointed out that its not position that matters in Matt's argument, its picking guns that are value. I.e. in this hypothetical world, lets just say for arguments sake all these guys are 2RF. Does anything change?

Guns vary in value by position, so it is more obvious at center than at 2rf or hooker.

BBowler wrote:Let's say you introduced this 4 x 4 startegy last season (with the benefit of hindsight) who are the equivalent of the 8 players you mention below?

Will need some time to think and review, currently at work. Last season applying this strategy with strong centres with upside got me onto Bateman as starting center.

mattnz wrote:

Will need some time to think and review, currently at work. Last season applying this strategy with strong centres with upside got me onto Bateman as starting center.

And holland and widdop?

my tv broke wrote:

And holland and widdop?

Widdop was a last minute decision when something changed at the last minute with another player, so wasn’t carefully thought through. If Holland has the upside expected by many, he would have worked well.

Note that it isn’t a strategy for selection of an individual, but for the structure of the team.

Levi re Brown

Doesnt mean too much, but jeez, Brown and Garth Brennan have been called out by their ex players.

“It was hard, it was a bit of a rollercoaster. I thought there were things that were unfair,” Levi said this week.

“You hear a lot of stories where coaches that just don’t like you, no matter what you do. You could be in his bad books and that’s it. I think I might have been in a situation like that.

“I’m just happy to be out of it. I never have anything towards the club or the team, some of my best friends are in that team.

“That was one of the biggest things keeping me there was the boys in the team, so they all knew that this was probably the best for me and so did I.”

“I wanted to reignite my career, I thought there were a lot of things that just didn’t go my way last year, things I thought were a bit unfair but were out of my control.

“That’s in the past now, so I’m really excited for this year and to play really good footy and put my best foot forward.

“I think the move is what I needed. These guys have a lot of belief in me and that’s what I was really looking for, so I’m excited.”

mattnz wrote:

Guns vary in value by position, so it is more obvious at center than at 2rf or hooker.

Well, now you are talking about something that is subjective. What you were trying to present previously wasnt.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Well, now you are talking about something that is subjective. What you were trying to present previously wasnt.

No, I just didn’t need to spell out that a center scoring mid 40s or 2rf getting mid 50s are both great, while 2rfs and hoks getting <40 isn’t so great. Perhaps some did need that pointed out as well.

Can the fantasy gods please provide a few more cheap options in the centres?

Sincerely,

Chewie

my tv broke wrote:Levi re Brown

Doesnt mean too much, but jeez, Brown and Garth Brennan have been called out by their ex players.

“It was hard, it was a bit of a rollercoaster. I thought there were things that were unfair,” Levi said this week.

“You hear a lot of stories where coaches that just don’t like you, no matter what you do. You could be in his bad books and that’s it. I think I might have been in a situation like that.

“I’m just happy to be out of it. I never have anything towards the club or the team, some of my best friends are in that team.

“That was one of the biggest things keeping me there was the boys in the team, so they all knew that this was probably the best for me and so did I.”

“I wanted to reignite my career, I thought there were a lot of things that just didn’t go my way last year, things I thought were a bit unfair but were out of my control.

“That’s in the past now, so I’m really excited for this year and to play really good footy and put my best foot forward.

“I think the move is what I needed. These guys have a lot of belief in me and that’s what I was really looking for, so I’m excited.”

I take these with a grain of salt. I often think with these stories it about coaches reputation more than ability.

Chewie wrote:

The other 1%, like myself, are running Haas/Knight/Carrigan

What I was gonna ask is is it better to not have Williams or Hess in my side and pay the extra to start with Knight and move Carrigan back to the bench as he will have DPP FRF/2RF.....?

Currently have Carrigan starting with Haas and Hess/Williams on my interchange but they are just second rowers and no DPP. 

Hess and Williams though could both make more money than Knight which makes the decision even harder!

Rabbits21 wrote:
What I was gonna ask is is it better to not have Williams or Hess in my side and pay the extra to start with Knight and move Carrigan back to the bench as he will have DPP FRF/2RF.....?

Currently have Carrigan starting with Haas and Hess/Williams on my interchange but they are just second rowers and no DPP. 

Hess and Williams though could both make more money than Knight which makes the decision even harder!

Knight could make more money than Hess and Williams but?

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Knight could make more money than Hess and Williams but?

Do you honestly think he can average high 40’s?

Rabbits21 wrote:
What I was gonna ask is is it better to not have Williams or Hess in my side and pay the extra to start with Knight and move Carrigan back to the bench as he will have DPP FRF/2RF.....?

Currently have Carrigan starting with Haas and Hess/Williams on my interchange but they are just second rowers and no DPP. 

Hess and Williams though could both make more money than Knight which makes the decision even harder!

Depends on your 18-21 and therefore who becomes your 18th man

If you have, say, Musgrove, then he is your coverage at frf, or would you rather be able to play one of the other nuffs instead.

Im more concernee with picking the 17 i think will score the best rather than having those 17 cover all positions. Will happily play someone from 18 to 21 for a week if needed.