NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 18 - Ditch the duds thread

Round 1 BEs




MTBs Site - Stats, BE, Match Centre, Interchange Times, Price Predictor[/b]
http://www.footystatistics.com/

MTB's team builder
[size=45]http://footystatistics.com/team_planner_2020.php[/size]


Excel links

Milchcow's excel solver
https://www.mediafire.com/file/kcuwhduwp4n227e/2020_Fantasy_Solver_v1.0.xlsm/file

Milchcow's team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/pj9xsl5oxf2rgwd/2020_Team_Planner_v0.1.xlsx/file

arsen's excel
http://www.mediafire.com/file/3tr3at0u11gg7mo/NRL_Fantasy_2020.xlsx/file

mattnz's excel sheet
https://www.mediafire.com/file/ez4a4ipfe11s4h5/2020_players_updated.xlsx/file

Steve Nicholls (RNGD Analytics) excel database
https://www.mediafire.com/file/mxuesns6qcmu9qc/RFS_2014-19_Data_%28v1.0%29.xlsm/file


2020 BYE PLANNER


Player Prices  

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1127-2020-prices

Price change formula

New Price = 0.75 * old price + 0.25 * Weighted average * MN

Weighted average = (5*G1 + 4*G2 + 3*G3 + 2*G4 + G5) ÷ 15

G1 = most recent game
G2 = game before that
G3 = game before that
Etc

Before a player has played 4 games, they are assumed to have scored their priced average for the missing games from the weighted average

Please may I ask a Fantasy question?

George Williams - no discussion but he was really impressive IMO. Difficult price, but what are people's thoughts on his long-term scoring?

SoylentGreen wrote:Please may I ask a Fantasy question?

George Williams - no discussion but he was really impressive IMO. Difficult price, but what are people's thoughts on his long-term scoring?

The answer to your question is that Coronavirus can be best combated by better public information awareness and responsibility.  Now stop trying to derail this thread with your nonsensical fantasy talk!

SoylentGreen wrote:Please may I ask a Fantasy question?

George Williams - no discussion but he was really impressive IMO. Difficult price, but what are people's thoughts on his long-term scoring?

Looked really really good. Wighton seems to be doing all the running this year. People also aren't understanding the Raiders won't be versing the Titans every week, but good be a great POD to the likes of Moses, Cleary and DCE.

One player I am not hearing much about is Milford. Seems to have gotten to 57 points pretty easily with not much effort. Pretty expensive though.

Even though I love all the MOD's work and the fact without you guys we would have no NRLFF but any chance the BE's can be placed into a "spoiler" just to not clog up page 1. I know it is very miniscule, just an idea to tidy up the thread a little.

Also I LOVE all the little names the threads are getting now.

SoylentGreen wrote:Please may I ask a Fantasy question?

George Williams - no discussion but he was really impressive IMO. Difficult price, but what are people's thoughts on his long-term scoring?

For reals though, Williams and Hughes both looked good. But maybe their high tackle counts look unsustainable for halves. Williams won’t get two line breaks every week and Hughes won’t get two try assists. I think Hughes looked better of the two because his unexpected component was more kick metres than Munster, and if he continues being the dominant kicker, it’s a +10 point boost. I am going to give them both another week to see if it’s repeatable though, because if those stats dry up and tackle counts reduce, they may still regress to being only slightly below value

The Cowboys will fly in and out of Sydney on gameday on chartered flights to avoid airports/hotels/everyone

Wonder how that will affect their prep/mindset/etc.. pretty much never happens to travel on game day?

my tv broke wrote:The Cowboys will fly in and out of Sydney on gameday on chartered flights to avoid airports/hotels/everyone

Wonder how that will affect their prep/mindset/etc.. pretty much never happens to travel on game day?

I like the idea. I think all teams should do that. Will reduce the risk of coming into contact with anyone and I think it might help their recovery and mindset by being able to be back home and with their families pretty much straight away.

Also helps when JT owns his own airline.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

I like the idea. I think all teams should do that. Will reduce the risk of coming into contact with anyone and I think it might help their recovery and mindset by being able to be back home and with their families pretty much straight away.

Also helps when JT owns his own airline.

Oh, agree, and I definitely think all teams will be doing the same.

OKAY.

I am 87th Overall in SuperCoach with 1173 pts.

Def shows how many numbnuts must play that over Fantasy.

P.S. I am 3143rd in Fantasy with 874

StormTrooper96 wrote:

OKAY.

Lol. Makes it looks funny because it looks like he is in a room by himself.

BBowler wrote:I am 87th Overall in SuperCoach with 1173 pts.

Def shows how many numbnuts must play that over Fantasy.

P.S. I am 3143rd in Fantasy with 874

I like how in the SC thread you said you're over-achieving, but here you call SC players numbnuts

my tv broke wrote:

Oh, agree, and I definitely think all teams will be doing the same.

if the NRL is serious about continuing over the coming weeks - sending everyone to a single location and playing all games out of there is probably the most feasible.

Would completely stuff players around with their families, but would have best chance of keeping everyone isolated and fit enough to enable games to go ahead. Would also mean they'd need everyone to be virus free. One out/all out though if one person tests positive they'd have to cancel everything.

Anyone bringing in COVID-19? Should expect alot of offloads this week

Who are the players that either:
A) overachieved in their scoring and are actually looking worse than everyone else is thinking or
B) slightly unders for their hoped scoring but you expect they will come right (like Twal last year)

For me:
A) Lomax - won’t be getting 2 try saves (12 points) and a gifted try every week. Worst running meters of any fullback in the comp by a mile. Overachieved this week for scoring, a sell despite his reasonable score. Pleased I don’t have him

B) Hess - got 80 mins, won’t be trying to Mark David Fifita every week, this week plays the bulldogs. Is he against that chump Stimson? Hold for a good score this week.
Jmk- got 80 minutes, should have had a try assist and lba if Elliott didn’t screw it up. First game back from major surgery and still wasn’t subbed by the coach. Hold

WT Winfield wrote:

I like how in the SC thread you said you're over-achieving, but here you call SC players numbnuts

It feels like overachieving compared to Fantasy strength-of-competition lol

BBowler wrote:I am 87th Overall in SuperCoach with 1173 pts.

Def shows how many numbnuts must play that over Fantasy.

P.S. I am 3143rd in Fantasy with 874

lol I got 1 point less than you and I’m 100 spots behind in Fantasy

So, I am dumb and didn't get Fifita despite having him penciled in all the way up to TLT, where I made 3 moves that cost me about 100pts and 12000-ish places.

Is it too sideways to go Tommy Trbo to Fifita? Feels wrong trading him out but I feel like Fifita is higher floor, same ceiling and is going to keep scoring loads of points and price rises. If I don't grab him now it will be impossible to get him until at least August which is going to be about R5-6.

Thoughts?

mattnz wrote:Who are the players that either:
A) overachieved in their scoring and are actually looking worse than everyone else is thinking or
B) slightly unders for their hoped scoring but you expect they will come right (like Twal last year)

For me:
A) Lomax - won’t be getting 2 try saves (12 points) and a gifted try every week. Worst running meters of any fullback in the comp by a mile. Overachieved this week for scoring, a sell despite his reasonable score. Pleased I don’t have him

B) Hess - got 80 mins, won’t be trying to Mark David Fifita every week, this week plays the bulldogs. Is he against that chump Stimson? Hold for a good score this week.
Jmk- got 80 minutes, should have had a try assist and lba if Elliott didn’t screw it up. First game back from major surgery and still wasn’t subbed by the coach. Hold

Talk is Katoa may come onto the bench.

Hess looked shit and not sure I want to hold him.