NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 29 - Too many cows!

Welshy wrote:Murray or Munster? Holding Tolo

FalconSloth wrote:Does anyone have any stats on erin clark in reserve grade? i cant find any other than the first round of the Qcup

Welshy wrote:

Cheers mate gone a different direction for POD goodness. Going

JMK - Paix
Aubbs - McInnes

ytsb wrote:
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I would be careful having this opinion. Particularly for players like Murray who was playing 2rf before. Poor prior performance does not mean they're suddenly going to go gangbusters to compensate. Not to say they won't, because the average does capture a bunch of variance in their score (super low, super high, but generally tending towards a mean).

See this; it's probably the fallacy most responsible for people being cleaned at the casino. How many times have you see 5 blacks being spun on roulette, and thinking fuck it's gotta be red soon! only to have 4 more black spins? The odds are still 50/50, it doesn't matter what the 5 previous results were.

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Yeah but

my tv broke wrote:
Try it again

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Why the Mofo love?  He averages around .88ppm which drops to .82ppm in games over 50mins.
If he plays 55mins that’s 47-48ppg.  
Underpriced yes, but not a gun?

Does one 75pt game tell us something has changed?

my tv broke wrote:

lol, done

StormTrooper96 wrote:Okay so I have missed quite a bit! Surely Aubbs is a sell now? I have been bitten by the Black Widow... I'm not being bitten again. Even if he comes back and starts I need to jump on players before their price gets out of hand

my tv broke wrote:

I get what you're saying but I sort of disagree, well, I don't think the example of random events in roulette is really applicable.

Fantasy players get stuck on last weeks score but I agree with Welshy's point, when you have a long history of scoring history for a player, they are more than likely going to follow that history rather than one to two weeks of this season's scoring.

Obviously rule change has some impact there but when you're comparing similar players they are likely to be similarly affected.

Role change is important too, if Taumalolo continues to play 70 mins as a "norm" then there is probably a slight boost to his average there.

ytsb wrote:


Agree 100%, that's where the comparison breaks down. Just something to be mindful of anyway. In Welshy's case saying that Murray is a 55pt player and hasn't achieved that, that is because he was in a different position, not because of random variance.

Have to weigh up variance vs. something impacting your player. It's what makes fantasy fun

mattnz wrote:
Great question. I rewatched the titans game to try to understand it.

He played 37 minutes first half. Looking at the titans bench, I expect him to play the full first half this week, and 60+ minutes.

He never looked tired, just stepped up, tackled constantly, was never slacking off. In the last 5 minutes of the game he made a big tackle busting run, was still full of running.

Young player, ready to step up and not playing injured. If you look at guys like Lolo and Taupau and the jumps in performance they had as they matured in early 20s, that is what Mofo was looking like this season.

Mulvy wrote:

You never did answer my question. How do you do gin?

Khany wrote:Going to hold Brailey a bit longer, he is a good no 9 surrounded by underperforming halves.

mattnz wrote:Puff piece on Friend's work rate https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/06/04/six-again-speed-wont-slow-friends-tackle-rate-down/

StormTrooper96 wrote:

He is also yet to have Fifita to run off with these new rules. Fifita is an offload beast.

Milchcow wrote:
Its also logic Butters tried to apply a year or 2 ago. Player X normally scores 15 tries a year, but has only scored 3 tries in the first half of the season, so he's goign to go nuts in the 2nd half of the year. load up boys!

This strategy is not one I'd recommend

Murray is slightly different because you have reasonable grounds to believe he'll change his scoring with a change in role, but you should only expect a return to normal rather than exceeding it to compensate