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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 33 - If Stephen Crichton gets injured this week, I'm going to cry

    Mr peanutbutter
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    Post by Mr peanutbutter Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:07 am

    Trades for the week

    Walter's to Best
    Guler to JTB

    Current team

    Koro
    Carrigan Hass(c)
    Yeo Su'A Leilua
    Moses Paix
    Best Capewell
    Pappy turbo drink

    Grant Katoa Rudolf Williame
    JTB Brailey Luai Fogarty

    608k itb

    Gonna loop for the first time this year.not sure if I go with Luao or Brailey as back up tho.
    Daedalus
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    Post by Daedalus Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:08 am

    FalconSloth wrote:Im stfressing out got no idea who to trade. everyone has talked me out of Fuimaono and HTF doesn't really appeal to me as a great fantasy player. My team is this with 50k itb:

    Korosiau

    Haas Fotuaika

    Carrigan  Horsburgh   Leilua

    Cleary   Croft

    Capewell  Wiliame

    Papenhuyzen   Trbojevic  Drinkwater

    Grant   Taumalolo   Katoa   Paix

    Kerr   Luai   Rudolph   Hopoate

    Trade suggestions would be much appreciated. Also do you think HTF be the next sivo?

    Hopo and Kerr our for either Best/Clark or SCrichton/someone up to 420k
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:09 am


    People keeping talking about someone being a good trade in target because of a low BE

    In 4 weeks that BE is forgotten, but you will still own the player. If they aren't sustaining whatever scoring gave them the low BE in the first place they'll be losing cash and you'll be burning trades.

    BEs by themselves should never be used to determine who to trade in. If someone has a low BE its entirely possible they are a good trade in target, but bring them in for their job security and extra points, not a one-off cash injection.

    Use BEs to determine WHEN to bring someone in (ie, when a gun has bottomed out in price) not WHO to bring in.
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:11 am

    FalconSloth wrote:Im stfressing out got no idea who to trade. everyone has talked me out of Fuimaono and HTF doesn't really appeal to me as a great fantasy player. My team is this with 50k itb:

    Korosiau

    Haas Fotuaika

    Carrigan  Horsburgh   Leilua

    Cleary   Croft

    Capewell  Wiliame

    Papenhuyzen   Trbojevic  Drinkwater

    Grant   Taumalolo   Katoa   Paix

    Kerr   Luai   Rudolph   Hopoate

    Trade suggestions would be much appreciated. Also do you think HTF be the next sivo?

    Hopoate to Fuimaono would be my play. Bank the 1 trade. Reassess next week. Williame in 17, Paix in 18. Take Paix score over others if 35+
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:16 am

    How do people see Munster in regards to Cleary, Moses, DCE?
    kalynponga
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    Post by kalynponga Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:16 am

    👍Uppong if you think Cleary has a better 3 game run,
    👎Downpong if you think Teddy has a better 3 game run.

    Thanks.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:17 am

    Daedalus wrote:

    Hopo and Kerr our for either Best/Clark or SCrichton/someone up to 420k
    Kerr is a starting prop with a BE of 7. If you started the season with him, this is the scenario you were hoping for. Lots of cash to make yet.

    Wiliame and Hopoate are the stand out going nowhere trade outs in the team. Croft is likely to struggle until Broncos get their all the troops back and not a season keeper. Papenhuyzen also going no where this season so far. Not like the team is short of trade out options, Kerr isn't one of them.
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:17 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    People keeping talking about someone being a good trade in target because of a low BE

    In 4 weeks that BE is forgotten, but you will still own the player. If they aren't sustaining whatever scoring gave them the low BE in the first place they'll be losing cash and you'll be burning trades.

    BEs by themselves should never be used to determine who to trade in. If someone has a low BE its entirely possible they are a good trade in target, but bring them in for their job security and extra points, not a one-off cash injection.

    Use BEs to determine WHEN to bring someone in (ie, when a gun has bottomed out in price) not WHO to bring in.

    What do you think of my plan to not get Turbo and just Guler>Best with option of 2nd Wiliame>low be trade (Burton if late switch or Fui or no 2nd trade)

    Plus points
    - keep Drinkwater Pap and Mann
    - excellent visibility of team news not committing to trades before late mail
    - either save a trade(19 left) or keep generating cash

    Minus points
    - Turbo goes large and costs more
    - Turbo highly owned by top ranks and will lose ground from 80th if Turbo carves up
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:17 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    People keeping talking about someone being a good trade in target because of a low BE

    In 4 weeks that BE is forgotten, but you will still own the player. If they aren't sustaining whatever scoring gave them the low BE in the first place they'll be losing cash and you'll be burning trades.

    BEs by themselves should never be used to determine who to trade in. If someone has a low BE its entirely possible they are a good trade in target, but bring them in for their job security and extra points, not a one-off cash injection.

    Use BEs to determine WHEN to bring someone in (ie, when a gun has bottomed out in price) not WHO to bring in.

    I passed on Yeo a couple of rounds back (went Matterson) with some of this reasoning (I kinda regret it haha). I ignore the BE and make a call on what average score the player is priced at. I'm using the same approach for Best this week and passing on him too.
    Pain
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    Post by Pain Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:18 am

    Welshy wrote:
    Season bet. If Latrell can get within 5 points of Tedescos average you get my avatar. If he doesn’t. I get yours

    Edit. And to clarify I mean get to pick yours and you mine.

    Teddy’s hamstrings just tightened hearing you’ve just backed him for an avatar bet.

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    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:18 am

    Mulvy wrote:

    I think Drinky and Mann are holds,  buuuuuuuuuuuuut, i like it!

    Yeah my decision would have been easier if Mann wasn't playing.
    KingTeddy
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    Post by KingTeddy Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:18 am

    Upvote Macca
    Downvote Horse
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:20 am

    Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

    Yeah all sound advice

    Has anyone done a $ vs points analysis? I’ve seen it done in FPL where you can strip down points for players to get their true value and help balance your squad

    In this example how many points is 260k worth? Rudolf to mofo for example is likely a 15-20 point boost this year

    With initial prices at the start of the season, a fantasy point costs you $14,529

    With the increased scoring since the restart, its down to a bit under $13,000

    If you look at the BEs in the first post of the thread, the last column, "value" is the difference between their current price and an estimate of what their price will settle in if they maintain their current average

    So if Chris Randall could maintain is current average of 72, he'll make almost $700,000. he's probably not going to do that from outside of first grade, but if you ignore the outliers you can see who is likely to gain you the most money from a purchase.
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:22 am

    wolfking wrote:

    Yeah my decision would have been easier if Mann wasn't playing.

    If Mann plays and scores 40 he makes just shy of 40k.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:24 am

    Verbal Kint wrote:

    I passed on Yeo a couple of rounds back (went Matterson) with some of this reasoning (I kinda regret it haha). I ignore the BE and make a call on what average score the player is priced at. I'm using the same approach for Best this week and passing on him too.

    I passed on Yeo and Twal for the same reason. I think long term they won't sustain their scoring. I could well be wrong (Yeo possibly the one I'll regret most) but with limited trades and funds sometimes you have to make gut calls on who to pick and who you will overlook
    kalynponga
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    Post by kalynponga Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:25 am

    👍Uppong if you think Cleary has a better 3 game run,
    👎Downpong if you think Teddy has a better 3 game run.

    Thanks.
    churg
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    Post by churg Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:27 am

    Morning Lads. Can you please check my poll out in the TU TD section. Cheers.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:28 am

    Just did the number of runs analysis on Papy. Averaging 19 runs / game which surprised me. Getting the same opportunities as the guns, just not doing anything with them.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:28 am

    my tv broke wrote:Thinking out loud, I think I've come to the conclusion that I will sell Mann, regardless of team news.

    My only other obvious trade outs are Levi (has to go), and Wiliame (worthless)

    (due to centres dropping like flies) i have to buy a CTR or WFB this week. Levi + cash doesn't afford me Teddy or Ponga.. but it could get me Tommy T, and hold on to a trade.

    I'm thinking of burning the 2nd trade though to go a little cheaper (eg Latrell or similar price ctr), but also bring in Jake T (or similar). Levi + Mann out = Latrell + Jake T in

    The way I see it Paix can hold down Mann's spot for a few more weeks and looks like scoring to the same ability anyway, but Jake T is a big upgrade (assuming 55 average or potential to go higher with new rules).

    Any thoughts?

    Its basically a case of playing Mann + Paix (looped with Luai/etc), or Paix + Jake Turbo

    I have finds to go Kennedy to JTrbo so I'll do that.

    Of players I can afford I think he is someone I am most happy with in my team. He might drop a tiny but of cash in the short term. He's unlikely to drop significant cash from this point, and gives me a good reliable scorer in the 17. Not as high ceiling as some of the other guys, but a solid 50-55 basically every week

    My other option is bring in Teddy this week for Mann, and then try Papenhuyzen to JTrbo next week. (I already have Ponga and TTrbo, so if I get Teddy, Papenhuyzen is surplus to requirements)

    I'm running without CTR cover at the moment (unless I get Talau as cashout) and might do that for as long as Capewell and Crichton are uninjured and starting.
    Was interested in Latrell if he dropped some more cash, but don't want to spend that much on him.
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:29 am

    Loomer wrote:

    If Mann plays and scores 40 he makes just shy of 40k.

    Food for thought. Cheers mate.

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