NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 71 - zero trades left

Right. Think I might pull the trigger and get Tedesco. Can't shake the feeling that he is in for a big one in his 150th game tonight. Might also grab Moses for Fog, but I feel a little bit of sadness to sell Fog, he's been so good to me, love the way the little bloke plays too.

Beyond this week I might consider Pearce to Dearden for half back up and ~300k, and upgrade RTS to hopefully anyone. Dearden should do most of the kicking with Milford out.

Rnd 13 Team:

my tv broke wrote:Right. Think I might pull the trigger and get Tedesco. Can't shake the feeling that he is in for a big one in his 150th game tonight. Might also grab Moses for Fog, but I feel a little bit of sadness to sell Fog, he's been so good to me, love the way the little bloke plays too.

Beyond this week I might consider Pearce to Dearden for half back up and ~300k, and upgrade RTS to hopefully anyone. Dearden should do most of the kicking with Milford out.

Rnd 13 Team:

Look at big shot here with 18 fit players

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Look at big shot here with 18 fit players

my tv broke wrote:

Did you bring in RTS this week to cover Pappy?

my tv broke wrote:Right. Think I might pull the trigger and get Tedesco. Can't shake the feeling that he is in for a big one in his 150th game tonight. Might also grab Moses for Fog, but I feel a little bit of sadness to sell Fog, he's been so good to me, love the way the little bloke plays too.

Beyond this week I might consider Pearce to Dearden for half back up and ~300k, and upgrade RTS to hopefully anyone. Dearden should do most of the kicking with Milford out.

Rnd 13 Team:

Looks good.

What's your plan if Aubbs moves back to the bench soon?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Did you bring in RTS this week to cover Pappy?

Grabbing Teddy and Moses this week (at this stage), already had RTS.

wolfking wrote:What's your plan if Aubbs moves back to the bench soon?

Aubbs -> a centre that is playing in the NRL and is unlikely to get dropped. Knew it was likely when I bought him. Probably someone like Waqa Blake if there's a month to go. With any luck, eek a couple more weeks out of Aubbs, hopefully he is 500k+ by then, and there is some choice.

Morning all!

Struggling with how to burn through my last 8 trades, assisted by a sweet stash of 12k

Cook
Haas Mofo
Butcher Lolo Murray
Cleary Hunt
Avo McTyre
Teddy Ponga Mitchell

Carrigan Siro Luai Fog
Grant Niu Paps Randall

No desperate need to trade, but tempted to turn Luai/Fog into Munster or similar via Randall->Nuff.

any thoughts? Ranked just inside 3k so risky ideas welcome.

Fergo, Calker? Batman/Starling? TPJ? Jazz?

my tv broke wrote:

Grabbing Teddy and Moses this week (at this stage), already had RTS.




Aubbs -> a centre that is playing in the NRL and is unlikely to get dropped. Knew it was likely when I bought him. Probably someone like Waqa Blake if there's a month to go. With any luck, eek a couple more weeks out of Aubbs, hopefully he is 500k+ by then, and there is some choice.

Could coincide with a Capewell return mate if he gets his edge spot back

Going on to "Floors" for players

Obviously any player can get injured and have their score stuffed (either completely or partially depending on when the injury occurs) but most people tend to know floor isn't lowest possible score at all - but what sort of low score they might put up in an uninjured game where things otherwise go badly.

But there is also a problem with just using scores so far to assume what a player's floor is.
We are 12 rounds into a 20 round season.

Using a similar approach to last year, I looked at players who played at least 20 games during the season. I looked at their lowest score in the first 14 rounds, and their lowest score for the season.
In almost 40% of cases, players got their lowest score after round 14.
So if you assume that holds true for other years, if you look at a players scoring so far - there is a greater than 1/3 chance that they haven't had their lowest score yet.

On the flip side, 45% of players got their highest score in the back end of the season, so if my dodgy logic holds, there's a good chance that whoever you have hasn't hit their season high yet.

Looking at a range of scores and getting the average and standard deviation is probably the way to go, and then realising that the floor and ceiling you come up with aren't hard and fast numbers with every score inside that range, but more of a guideline.
Also Bethany has since confirmed "floor" is the wrong word for the figures she gave, but using a floor of 69 for Cleary is fraught with danger because he's gone under that in 50% of his games this year

L-Jimmy wrote:Morning all!

Struggling with how to burn through my last 8 trades, assisted by a sweet stash of 12k

Cook
Haas Mofo
Butcher Lolo Murray
Cleary Hunt
Avo McTyre
Teddy Ponga Mitchell

Carrigan Siro Luai Fog
Grant Niu Paps Randall

No desperate need to trade, but tempted to turn Luai/Fog into Munster or similar via Randall->Nuff.

any thoughts? Ranked just inside 3k so risky ideas welcome.

Fergo, Calker? Batman/Starling? TPJ? Jazz?

I'd be tempted not to trade since you need both Luai and Fog (or replacements) for scoring this week. Both are going pretty well of late.

You already have two red dots (Niu and Randall) and I'd be hesitant to add another risky cash out.

That said, and I mentioned him earlier, but I'd consider Dearden at 328k for half backup. Milford gone for a month, should up his kicking metres. Passes the eye test as well (solid little player), should keep that 7 jersey for the rest of the year.

You can do:
Fog -> D Fifita or Tevaga
Luai ->  Dearden

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Look at big shot here with 18 fit players

Aubbs is so fit he surely counts as 2

Just replugging community team poll for this weeks trades
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1434-rd-13-trades#437745

Looks like we are pretty keen on Fogarty to Moses, and undecided on whether to ditch Young or hold the trade - so come have your vote counted

L-Jimmy wrote:Morning all!

Struggling with how to burn through my last 8 trades, assisted by a sweet stash of 12k

Cook
Haas Mofo
Butcher Lolo Murray
Cleary Hunt
Avo McTyre
Teddy Ponga Mitchell

Carrigan Siro Luai Fog
Grant Niu Paps Randall

No desperate need to trade, but tempted to turn Luai/Fog into Munster or similar via Randall->Nuff.

any thoughts? Ranked just inside 3k so risky ideas welcome.

Fergo, Calker? Batman/Starling? TPJ? Jazz?

If trades are burning a hole in your pocket you can go Fogarty to Luke Thompson in one hit.

Upgrading either Fog/Luai to Moses/Munster is probably not a terrible move either

So my decision this week comes down to one of the below options:

Option 1
- Upgrade Fermor to anyone under 679k. Options as keepers would be Munster/Moses/Paulo/Fotuaika/Taupau... or anyone else really but those stood out.
- Would get me 17 playing this week and run the year with 2 red dots (Wiliame/Niu)

Option 2
- Don't upgrade Fermor and hold the trade. Using trade leaves me with 2, holding leaves me with 3 trades
- My bank would let me upgrade Rudolf next week to someone from 830k ish or lower. So someone like a Bateman if he drops in price/Twal/Matterson if fit/Fifita
- Would run with 16 this week and cop it (act as if I had 17 but some backs had an off week)
- Would run the year with 3 red dots (Fermor/Wiliame/Niu) and leaving 2 trades for injury after the Rudolf upgrade

That’s some great thinking - thanks MTB and Milch!

Shady2K wrote:So my decision this week comes down to one of the below options:

Option 1
- Upgrade Fermor to anyone under 679k. Options as keepers would be Munster/Moses/Paulo/Fotuaika/Taupau... or anyone else really but those stood out.
- Would get me 17 playing this week and run the year with 2 red dots (Wiliame/Niu)

Option 2
- Don't upgrade Fermor and hold the trade. Using trade leaves me with 2, holding leaves me with 3 trades
- My bank would let me upgrade Rudolf next week to someone from 830k ish or lower. So someone like a Bateman if he drops in price/Twal/Matterson if fit/Fifita
- Would run with 16 this week and cop it (act as if I had 17 but some backs had an off week)
- Would run the year with 3 red dots (Fermor/Wiliame/Niu) and leaving 2 trades for injury after the Rudolf upgrade

Without knowing the make up of your squad, I'd be pretty keen on option 1. Of those options you're still getting a season keeper and with any luck they bust out a few big games on the run home anyway. I like the idea of boom players over a short period like Munster/Moses/Taupau for the run home, any of those guys can put up a banner and really boost your rankings.

I'm firmly in the camp that red dots will hurt down the track.

Shady2K wrote:So my decision this week comes down to one of the below options:

Option 1
- Upgrade Fermor to anyone under 679k. Options as keepers would be Munster/Moses/Paulo/Fotuaika/Taupau... or anyone else really but those stood out.
- Would get me 17 playing this week and run the year with 2 red dots (Wiliame/Niu)

Option 2
- Don't upgrade Fermor and hold the trade. Using trade leaves me with 2, holding leaves me with 3 trades
- My bank would let me upgrade Rudolf next week to someone from 830k ish or lower. So someone like a Bateman if he drops in price/Twal/Matterson if fit/Fifita
- Would run with 16 this week and cop it (act as if I had 17 but some backs had an off week)
- Would run the year with 3 red dots (Fermor/Wiliame/Niu) and leaving 2 trades for injury after the Rudolf upgrade

With only 3 trades left and 3 red dots you absolutely cannot afford to trade out Rudolf while he is fit

If you can wait until Sunday to see if Fermor plays. If he does you can bank both trades, if he doesn't you can trade to Moses

my tv broke wrote:

Without knowing the make up of your squad, I'd be pretty keen on option 1. Of those options you're still getting a season keeper and with any luck they bust out a few big games on the run home anyway.

I'm firmly in the camp that red dots will hurt down the track.

For this week, team is:

McInnes
Haas Taukeiaho
Lolo Yeo Young
SJ Munster
Crichton Aubbo
Teddy Ponga Talau

Grant Carrigan Hunt Rudolf
Pappy Fermor Wiliame Niu

3 trades left, 333k. Already made 1 trade of Luai to Munster. Not sure of which option to take under 679k but leaning towards Moses

Do we see Young's minutes continuing to slide, or reckon he's got that 45-55 minute Horsburgh role locked in?

Would really help my team if he can keep up that crazy PPM...

I've got FOMO for DCE this week and want him in final team but if get instead of Munster can't get Ponga 1 trade next week