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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 77 - Two Thirds Left of a Team List Tuesday

    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:07 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:I think I'm set on my trade this week, it'll be Haas to Hunt, leaving 160k in the bank, 2 trades and the following side.

    Hunt
    Carrigan, Fotu
    Fifita, Lolo, Yeo
    Cleary, Wighton
    Lomax, Crichton
    Ponga, Teddy, Papy

    Tevaga, Mann, HTF, Talau

    Averillo, Munster, Randall, Niu

    ----------------------------------------

    The plan here would be to let Haas go, and only buy him back if one of my forwards or Cleary goes down (since I've got lots of 2RF and halves depth, I can easily give up one to get Haas back if someone goes down). My reasoning for selling Haas is that Hunt will score more total points than he will even if Hunt averages 60 and Haas averages 80

    I think I'm doing the same, only with 3 trades left. Makes me feel better that you're puling the trigger with 2 left.
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:09 pm

    White Lightning wrote:So looking at Fotuaika at lock & looking at that bench assuming Whitbread comes into the 17 they'll have Peachey, 2 props & 1 2fr. Surely this means Fotuaika gets at least 60 mins (he has the engine). Do you agree/disagree. Or does Peachey relieve Fotuaika at lock or Peats at hooker. Cheers.

    Been floating around 60 mins 6 of last 7. Played 64 and 66 in those 7 for 60pts and 58pts
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:10 pm

    mrbrownstone wrote:

    I think I'm doing the same, only with 3 trades left. Makes me feel better that you're puling the trigger with 2 left.

    I have 3 left before using any this week, would be running with 2 until the end
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    Ram it in my Haas

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    Post by Ram it in my Haas Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:10 pm

    Bruh surely Cook doesn't get another shit score for the third week in a row. I'd deadset be tempted to sell him if he does, got some spare trades left...Fkn praying he breaks a tackle this week affraid
    FalconSloth
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    Post by FalconSloth Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:16 pm

    TU: McInnes and Moses
    TD: Koroisua and Fifita

    Or respond with other options around the same price
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:17 pm

    Trying to do some maths on selling vs keeping Haas and it's doing my head in.

    You have to factor in replacements and captaincy. If I keep Haas I'll captain McInness for 2/6 weeks and Haas for 4/6, and have to play both Talau and Sironen for 2 weeks, then loop them for the last 4.

    If I sell Haas to Hunt I'll probably captain McInness for 6 weeks, play Hunt for 6, and loop Talau/Sironen.

    Working on the averages of
    Haas: 75
    Hunt: 70
    McInness: 72.5
    Talau/Siro: 25

    Maybe a bit low for Talau/Siro and a slightly high for Haas, but I'll work with it.

    So for the next 2 weeks without Haas it's

    McInness (145 x 2) + Talau (25 x 2) + Siro (25 x 2) = 390

    or

    Mcinness (145 x 2) + Hunt (70 x 2) + one of Siro/Talau (25 x 2) = 480

    Then when Haas is back

    Haas (150 x 4) + McInness (72.5 x 4) + one of Talau/Siro (25 x 4) = 990

    or

    McInness (145 x 4) + Hunt (70 x 4) + ~40 point 17th man with money saved on Haas (40 x 4) = 1020

    Bottom line

    Keep Haas: 1380
    Sell Haas: 1500

    A boom score from Haas or Talau/Siro going a bit better than expected could throw that out, but I think 1 trade is surely worth it for an extra 120 points?
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:20 pm

    Ram it in my Haas wrote:Jack Johns is out for the year with a compound fracture, via foxsports. Had surgery today. Guess this is a slight positive for Siro??

    Forward stocks getting low. If Siro doesn't play, the bench is thin. Very thin.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:25 pm

    Ram it in my Haas wrote:Jack Johns is out for the year with a compound fracture, via foxsports. Had surgery today. Guess this is a slight positive for Siro??

    Just because Jack Johns got injured, doesn't mean Siro will magically heal faster to compensate
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    Ram it in my Haas

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    Post by Ram it in my Haas Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:29 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Just because Jack Johns got injured, doesn't mean Siro will magically heal faster to compensate

    Wasn't talking this week in particular, meant moving forward their backrower depth isn't that great hence a slight positive for siro
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:33 pm

    B/L wrote:Pretty sure everyone has to get through the captains run to play.

    Hell Cook could slip on a cake of soap in the shower and miss the rest of the season.

    Shit I was looking to bring him in this week.

    Does anyone know which players use shower gel instead of bars of soap?
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:38 pm

    B/L wrote:Pretty sure everyone has to get through the captains run to play.

    Hell Cook could slip on a cake of soap in the shower and miss the rest of the season.

    Tell me more...
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:42 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Shit I was looking to bring him in this week.

    Does anyone know which players use shower gel instead of bars of soap?

    Shower gel is just as slippery and even a slight spill can cover a greater surface area than a bar of soap so I'd suggest soap is the safer option.
    Have to factor in time as well, longer shower is greater risk. Taller players have a higher centre of gravity and thus more prone to losing balance.

    You can't just look at soap vs gel and leave it at that.

    Burgess boys clearly are lowest risk as my understanding is that they don't clean themselves.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:44 pm

    filthridden wrote:

    Shower gel is just as slippery and even a slight spill can cover a greater surface area than a bar of soap so I'd suggest soap is the safer option.
    Have to factor in time as well, longer shower is greater risk. Taller players have a higher centre of gravity and thus more prone to losing balance.

    You can't just look at soap vs gel and leave it at that.

    Burgess boys clearly are lowest risk as my understanding is that they don't clean themselves.

    I appreciate these insights. You don’t get this depth of analysis from other fantasy communities.
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:46 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    I appreciate these insights. You don’t get this depth of analysis from other fantasy communities.

    Oh I forgot extraction fan - no extraction fan means a steamier shower and lower visibility therefore increased risk of a mis-step.

    Oh and you also have to consider the weather for some reason even though it might seem irrelevant.
    StuDogg101
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    Post by StuDogg101 Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:53 pm

    filthridden wrote:

    Oh I forgot extraction fan - no extraction fan means a steamier shower and lower visibility therefore increased risk of a mis-step.

    Oh and you also have to consider the weather for some reason even though it might seem irrelevant.

    This opens a can of worms...what is the shower made of? How big is it? Does it allow for a complete slip over or merely a crash into the side?
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:11 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Shit I was looking to bring him in this week.

    Does anyone know which players use shower gel instead of bars of soap?

    Got me lol here, first post read after work, signed off and weekend is here! Up the Dragons !
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:13 pm

    Have gone Haas & Aubs to Bateman & Jarrod Croker with Bateman as captain. 5 trades left after this and rank 3300 atm. here comes the charge!!

    In our stats article this week we look into how bad the Broncos are going, can the Roosters get their three-peat, Josh Aloiai's improvement & every teams' draw for the rest of 2020:

    https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-round-15/

    Draftstars have a $25k comp for tonight's NRL game as there's no AFL on. For anyone interested in DFS (or first try scorer picks), we also do a 'value plays' article every week (rest of the games are updated Friday morning):

    https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/round-15-value-plays/
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:16 pm

    Dttragic2016 wrote:Have gone Haas & Aubs to Bateman & Jarrod Croker with Bateman as captain. 5 trades left after this and rank 3300 atm. here comes the charge!!

    In our stats article this week we look into how bad the Broncos are going, can the Roosters get their three-peat, Josh Aloiai's improvement & every teams' draw for the rest of 2020:

    https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-round-15/

    Draftstars have a $25k comp for tonight's NRL game as there's no AFL on. For anyone interested in DFS (or first try scorer picks), we also do a 'value plays' article every week (rest of the games are updated Friday morning):

    https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/round-15-value-plays/

    Gr8 work mate, love the read. Post it a couple times I reckon, as not all forum members read every page.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:24 pm

    Looking forward to a great game tonight. I hope Moses comes up with some brilliance (and lots of fantasy points)
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:31 pm

    filthridden wrote:

    Shower gel is just as slippery and even a slight spill can cover a greater surface area than a bar of soap so I'd suggest soap is the safer option.
    Have to factor in time as well, longer shower is greater risk. Taller players have a higher centre of gravity and thus more prone to losing balance.

    You can't just look at soap vs gel and leave it at that.

    Burgess boys clearly are lowest risk as my understanding is that they don't clean themselves.

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